EVERY SINGLE FIRST ROUND MATCHUP
(Friday Edition)
🚨🔥HERE WE GO🚨🔥
Huge shoutout to @matteise for the amazing work on the Tournament Guide! I have a lot of hours logged in that thing this week.
Trends, Analytics, Bets for all 16 matchups...
#showmethedata (THREAD)
(Friday Edition)
🚨🔥HERE WE GO🚨🔥
Huge shoutout to @matteise for the amazing work on the Tournament Guide! I have a lot of hours logged in that thing this week.
Trends, Analytics, Bets for all 16 matchups...
#showmethedata (THREAD)
7 Florida (PK) vs. 10 Va. Tech (135)
When 7sd has 2PT% & 3PT% ranked 100th or better they are 13-5 SU 12-6 ATS.
When 10sd has KenPom worse than 50 the 7sd is 13-3 SU 10-6 ATS.
When 7sd has Adj Def Eff ranked 40 or better they are 22-9 SU 18-12-1 ATS
THE PICK: Florida (PK)
When 7sd has 2PT% & 3PT% ranked 100th or better they are 13-5 SU 12-6 ATS.
When 10sd has KenPom worse than 50 the 7sd is 13-3 SU 10-6 ATS.
When 7sd has Adj Def Eff ranked 40 or better they are 22-9 SU 18-12-1 ATS
THE PICK: Florida (PK)
3 Arkansas (-8.5) vs. 14 Colgate (161)
When 3sd favored <10 the OU is 7-18.
When 3sd has Adj Def Eff 15 or better they are 16-7 ATS & the OU is 4-19
When 3sd Adj Def Eff is .95 PPP or better they are 27-15-1 ATS & the OU is 15-28
THE PICK: ARKANSAS -8.5 & UNDER 161
When 3sd favored <10 the OU is 7-18.
When 3sd has Adj Def Eff 15 or better they are 16-7 ATS & the OU is 4-19
When 3sd Adj Def Eff is .95 PPP or better they are 27-15-1 ATS & the OU is 15-28
THE PICK: ARKANSAS -8.5 & UNDER 161
1 Illinois (-22.5) vs. 16 Drexel (143.5)
When line >20 and total >140 the 16sd is 14-8 ATS
When either team has Adj Tempo worse than 200th the OU is 11-17-1 and avg 129.4 pts
THE PICK: DREXEL +22.5 & UNDER 143.5
When line >20 and total >140 the 16sd is 14-8 ATS
When either team has Adj Tempo worse than 200th the OU is 11-17-1 and avg 129.4 pts
THE PICK: DREXEL +22.5 & UNDER 143.5
6 Texas Tech (-4) vs. 11 Utah St. (131.5)
When 11sd has Adj Def Eff 50th or better they are 16-9 SU 18-5 ATS
When 11sd has KenPom better than 50 they are 19-18 SU 24-13 ATS
THE PICK: UTAH ST. +4 & +155 ML Sprinkle
When 11sd has Adj Def Eff 50th or better they are 16-9 SU 18-5 ATS
When 11sd has KenPom better than 50 they are 19-18 SU 24-13 ATS
THE PICK: UTAH ST. +4 & +155 ML Sprinkle
2 Ohio St. (16) vs. 15 Oral Roberts (157)
When 2sd/15sd total is >145 the OU is 3-12
When 15sd has Adj Def Eff over 1.0 PPP the 2sd is 42-1 SU 21-20-1 ATS but OU is only 19-24
THE PICK: UNDER 157
When 2sd/15sd total is >145 the OU is 3-12
When 15sd has Adj Def Eff over 1.0 PPP the 2sd is 42-1 SU 21-20-1 ATS but OU is only 19-24
THE PICK: UNDER 157
1 Baylor (-26) vs. 16 Hartford (140.5)
When 1sd is 3th or better in Adj Off Eff and 3Pt% they are 16-7 ATS
When either has Adj Tempo worse than 200th the OU is 11-17-1 and avg 129.4 pts
When 16sd has Adj Off Eff worse than 250th they avg 50.8pts
THE PICK: HARTFORD TT u57.5
When 1sd is 3th or better in Adj Off Eff and 3Pt% they are 16-7 ATS
When either has Adj Tempo worse than 200th the OU is 11-17-1 and avg 129.4 pts
When 16sd has Adj Off Eff worse than 250th they avg 50.8pts
THE PICK: HARTFORD TT u57.5
8 Loyola-Chi (-5.5) vs. Ga. Tech (124.5)
When 8sd is non “Power 8” conference against 9sd “Power 8” they are 8-5 SU 7-6 ATS.
When 8sd has Adj Off Eff better than 115 they are 8-6 SU 8-6 ATS.
Last 15 years better sd is 30-30 ATS (slight edge helps)
THE PICK: LOYOLA -5.5
When 8sd is non “Power 8” conference against 9sd “Power 8” they are 8-5 SU 7-6 ATS.
When 8sd has Adj Off Eff better than 115 they are 8-6 SU 8-6 ATS.
Last 15 years better sd is 30-30 ATS (slight edge helps)
THE PICK: LOYOLA -5.5
5 Tennessee (-8) vs. 12 Oregon St. (130)
When 5sd has 2pt% <50% the 12sd is 18-8 ATS, 3pt% <35% the 12sd is 12-5-1 ATS
When 5sd has KenPom 50 more than 12sd they are 13-2 SU but 5-8-2 ATS.
12sd has KenPom worse than 80 the 5sd is 8-2 SU but 3-7 ATS
THE PICK: OREGON ST. +8
When 5sd has 2pt% <50% the 12sd is 18-8 ATS, 3pt% <35% the 12sd is 12-5-1 ATS
When 5sd has KenPom 50 more than 12sd they are 13-2 SU but 5-8-2 ATS.
12sd has KenPom worse than 80 the 5sd is 8-2 SU but 3-7 ATS
THE PICK: OREGON ST. +8
4 Ok. State (-7.5) vs. 13 Liberty (139.5)
When 4sd favored by <4 they are 16-8 SU 15-9 ATS.
When 13sd has KenPom worse than 80 4sd is 17-4 SU 13-7-2 ATS.
When 4sd is Tier 1 & 13sd is Tier 5/6 the 4sd is 17-3 SU 14-6 ATS
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE -7.5
When 4sd favored by <4 they are 16-8 SU 15-9 ATS.
When 13sd has KenPom worse than 80 4sd is 17-4 SU 13-7-2 ATS.
When 4sd is Tier 1 & 13sd is Tier 5/6 the 4sd is 17-3 SU 14-6 ATS
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE -7.5
8 North Carolina (-1.5) vs. 9 Wisconsin (137.5)
ACC 5sd-8sd are 4-5 SU 2-7 ATS against schools from “Tier 1” conferences.
ACC 1sd-8sd are 25-6 SU but only 8-23 ATS in first round
9sd better KenPom than 8sd, they are 11-10 SU
THE PICK: WISCONSIN ML +105
ACC 5sd-8sd are 4-5 SU 2-7 ATS against schools from “Tier 1” conferences.
ACC 1sd-8sd are 25-6 SU but only 8-23 ATS in first round
9sd better KenPom than 8sd, they are 11-10 SU
THE PICK: WISCONSIN ML +105
2 Houston (-20) vs. 15 Cleveland St. (134.5)
When 2sd is #200/worse in Adj Tempo & #50/better in Adj Def Eff they are 21-2 SU 16-6-1 ATS
When 15sd has Adj Def Eff < 1.0 PPP OU is 4-11
When 2sd has 3PA/FG ranking #100 or better OU is 4-12
THE PICK: HOUSTON -20 & UNDER 134.5
When 2sd is #200/worse in Adj Tempo & #50/better in Adj Def Eff they are 21-2 SU 16-6-1 ATS
When 15sd has Adj Def Eff < 1.0 PPP OU is 4-11
When 2sd has 3PA/FG ranking #100 or better OU is 4-12
THE PICK: HOUSTON -20 & UNDER 134.5
4 Purdue (-7.5) vs. 13 North Texas (126.5)
When 4sd favored <8 they are 16-8 SU 15-9 ATS
When 4sd has Adj Off Eff #30/better they are 16-0 SU
THE PICK: PURDUE -7.5
When 4sd favored <8 they are 16-8 SU 15-9 ATS
When 4sd has Adj Off Eff #30/better they are 16-0 SU
THE PICK: PURDUE -7.5
7 Clemson (+1.5) vs. 10 Rutgers (125.5)
When 7sd has KenPom #40/worse the 10sd is 10-7-1 ATS
When 7sd plays against a Tier 1 the 10sd is 16-10 ATS
When 10sd is favored and KenPom #40/better they are 10-4 SU 8-6 ATS
THE PICK: RUTGERS -1.5
When 7sd has KenPom #40/worse the 10sd is 10-7-1 ATS
When 7sd plays against a Tier 1 the 10sd is 16-10 ATS
When 10sd is favored and KenPom #40/better they are 10-4 SU 8-6 ATS
THE PICK: RUTGERS -1.5
6 San Diego St. (-3) vs. 11 Syracuse (139)
When 6sd is favored <3 11sd is 11-9 SU 11-9 ATS
When 11sd has KenPom #50/better they are 19-18 SU 24-13 ATS
When 6sd has Adj Off/Def Eff #50/better the 11sd is still 14-9 ATS
THE PICK: SYRACUSE +3 & +135 ML Sprinkle
When 6sd is favored <3 11sd is 11-9 SU 11-9 ATS
When 11sd has KenPom #50/better they are 19-18 SU 24-13 ATS
When 6sd has Adj Off/Def Eff #50/better the 11sd is still 14-9 ATS
THE PICK: SYRACUSE +3 & +135 ML Sprinkle
3 West Virginia (-13) vs. 14 Morehead State (137.5)
When 3sd is favored >10.5 and 14sd is Tier 5/6 they are 13-2 SU but only 5-10 ATS.
When 3sd has Adj Off Eff #15/better they are 20-5 SU but only 6-18-1 ATS
THE PICK: MOREHEAD ST +13
When 3sd is favored >10.5 and 14sd is Tier 5/6 they are 13-2 SU but only 5-10 ATS.
When 3sd has Adj Off Eff #15/better they are 20-5 SU but only 6-18-1 ATS
THE PICK: MOREHEAD ST +13
5 Villanova (-6.5) vs. 12 Winthrop (143)
5sd are 23-33-4 ATS (40%) since 2005
5sd 2PT% >50% 24-10 SU 15-15-4 ATS
5sd KenPom #20/better they are 22-9 SU 15-13-3 ATS
5sd 3PT% >35% 27-15 SU 18-21-3 ATS and OU 28-13-1
THE PICK: VILLANOVA -6.5 & OVER 143
5sd are 23-33-4 ATS (40%) since 2005
5sd 2PT% >50% 24-10 SU 15-15-4 ATS
5sd KenPom #20/better they are 22-9 SU 15-13-3 ATS
5sd 3PT% >35% 27-15 SU 18-21-3 ATS and OU 28-13-1
THE PICK: VILLANOVA -6.5 & OVER 143
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