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19 Mar, 10 tweets, 3 min read
I would be a lot more sympathetic to UK government claims of appalling treatment by the EU over vaccine exports if we were not also guilty of protectionism over covid. That is strangely not being so much mentioned. thetimes.co.uk/article/eu-wil…
No doubt there is a covid challenge in which virtually ALL countries including the UK, US, EU Member States, China, India etc have at times behaved badly. So what to do? First, recognise the scale of the supply chain problem. I wrote on this yesterday.
US trade guru @ChadBown goes into more detail in explaining issues around the vaccines supply chain, and suggests a possible solution - a Covid Vaccine Investment and Trade Agreement.
But let's get back to UK specifics, because vaccine supply is a perfect test of our real post-Brexit international and economic policy. What can the UK do to best protect ourselves? All production in one country, or multilateral rules approach? Very big question.
Incidentally we should pause at this point to reflect that within weeks we have moved from how the UK was going to win globally through nimble regulation, to not trusting anyone and needing self sufficiency. That's quite some change. Perhaps we got a bit lucky? Image
But back to that decision for the UK. It is worth noting that the UK government has actually done very little to put forward practical global vaccine solutions to e.g. the WTO. It has been more yelling at the EU than anything else. Are we serious?
Because as members of the EU we could both claim to be the biggest supporters of the rules based system, while also being protected as one of the big three trade powers. Can't do that any more. Do we still really believe in the rules or not?
The question about international rules and the future role of the UK is a serious and difficult one unmatched by serious UK debate for 5 years. Yelling at the EU is what member states do, it is futile from outside. We haven't ever learnt that yet.
No prizes for guessing I advocate the UK doubling down on emphasising keeping to trading rules, which means removing our own covid export bans. Plus being ready to employ good diplomacy and money when needed to protect ourselves. But other suggestions welcome. /end
More on vaccines, restrictions, and suppy chains from the FT... ft.com/content/773245…

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
20 Mar
So much vaccine talk this morning, my take fwiw is that the EU's main problem on supplies has been panicked leadership, since January and still ongoing, compounded by relaxing lockdowns too soon. And in the first case in particular some of the panic is due to UK doing better.
In terms of sheer numbers of vaccinations the EU stands 6 or so weeks behind the UK. Not great, but really not cause for the weight of threats and bluster alternately playing out since January. And for that the buck has to stop with Ursula von der Leyen. She has failed.
As we should have learnt this week if not before arranging supply of vaccines is complex. The UK did well or got lucky (a bit of both probably), the US spent a vast sum of money. The EU by its nature has not been well set up, and is line with global average.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
19 Mar
Thread. The UK's choices on food regulations. Refuse to align with the EU because you want to accept US food regulations in a trade deal, at the cost of greater checks of goods entering Northern Ireland. Or accept EU rules and minimise GB-NI barriers.
Of course there's an irony that the UK's regulatory sovereignty first Brexit leads us to waiting to choose US or EU regulations to reduce trade barriers with one or other, or neither and keep barriers high. But that's non tariff barriers for you.
As for the Brits not accepting the laws of others, I hadn't noticed the problem of us accepting international rules on cars or aircraft safety. Though the Conservative Party have been a bit wary of the European Convention of Human Rights. Drafted by us...
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
19 Mar
I contributed an essay on global value chains to this, in effect, stocktake of the state of trade in 2021. Which once again in aggregate tells us what a wide range of issues are considered in global trade policy, and how difficult it is to progress any. ispionline.it/it/pubblicazio…
Simple messages - global value chains are outside the direct control of governments, manufacturing productivity means there are fewer jobs in the sector, this has delivered huge consumer benefits - with potentially far reaching consequences. Image
Trade policy uncertainty seems the new normal rather than a post-2016 anomaly. One that all governments are responding to, and has become ever more obvious when considering covid vaccines. There are no simple answers. Image
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
16 Mar
A marginal improvement in UK vaccine twitter today towards considering that EU and other countries decisions might not be primarily motivated by jealousy of the UK. But there was a worrying amount of UK insularity such that even EU-sceptics in the EU were critical of us.
Obviously twitter / UK tabloids etc but it is always the absence of nuanced debate that concerns me most. Like Brexit where neither glorious triumph or epic failure is the likely result, just changed circumstances which will have consequences.
And for the 'why always so negative' crowd, you do realise that serious businesses spend serious time and money considering everything that can go wrong? It isn't quite the gung-ho capitalism that excitable media and politicians seem always to assume.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
15 Mar
I know you're all experts now so will realise that a country pausing vaccinations in response to a possible concern may not be choosing to deliberately kill their citizens but just to investigate further e.g. problematic batches or common medical conditions.
Quite aside from anything else the level of UK smugness over vaccination is quite off the scale for a pandemic which is still a danger to us. That we are hopefully on the right track is rather good, but not justifying lecturing Europe on our superiority.
And on balance I think it unlikely that non-EU countries like Norway and Iceland have suspended use of a vaccine in solidarity with the EU against the UK. I don't want to second guess medical regulators, but I suspect their remit is health and safety not responding to UK media.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
15 Mar
Like the idea of a national bus strategy. Though as the government doesn't have much control over buses wondering how or if it will be delivered.

Also wary of government announcements of big numbers which probably mean little (former champion G Brown) bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
The end of bus deregulation will be seriously popular outside London (which never had it to start with). Regardless of whether no timetable buses are possible (not outside of major bus corridors).
Link to the buses announcement - gov.uk/government/new…
Read 4 tweets

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