- "Key Geographies" Supply-Driven TAM
- U.S. Supply-Driven TAM
- Demand for Organ Transplants (Lung/Heart/Liver)
- Larger donor list --> larger recipient list
- Quick revenue sizing based on current demand
- More positive catalysts
1/ Company-provided TAM from $TMDX's 10K of $8.02Bn for lung, heart and liver.
This is supply-driven i.e., sizing opp by unlocking utilization of previously unused organs.
"Key Geographies" per $TMDX include US, Canada, EU and Australia.
2/ We extrapolate $TMDX's TAM for U.S. by applying utilization assumptions from above to Company-provided U.S. figures.
We get U.S. TAM of approx $3.65Bn.
Important to know b/c a successful FDA panel will first benefit U.S. commercial efforts, then trickle over to int'l after.
3/ Both TAMs above are supply-driven, b/c they reflect newly-enabled procedures made possible by $TMDX :
i) lower ischemic time
ii) larger geographic reach
iii) organ viability assessment
Here's the kicker - how about demand? What if $TMDX unlocks supply but demand is limited?
9/ Per vid above, there are more liver transplants in U.S. than heart transplants, but more people die from cardiac problems.
Given 200-400K prospects; assume transplant 10% w/ midpoint at 30K a year, that is much higher than today (4K additions to WL for heart transplants).
10/ Thesis is that if donor list is enlarged, recipient list should grow with unlocked supply.
Even if we assume ceiling for number of procedures by using only current demand i.e., "annual additions to waitlist" for the 3 organs, $TMDX makes $900mm+ in sales ($45K/procedure).
11/ Clearly above numbers should take haircut factoring in competition from other warm perfusion players but $TMDX seems ahead of the game.
But wait, we haven't even baked in $TMDX's:
(i) International opp
(ii) Kidney OCS
(iii) Positive impact from OCS National Program
END/ Seems like an interesting year for $TMDX, starting with FDA Panel meeting for Heart on April 6th and then Liver in June/July '21
Please retweet and provide your thoughts on any of the above. Would love to get industry insights from anybody with sector knowledge. Thanks!
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1/ Senator Bill Frist, MD ($TDOC Board Member for 7 years) on CEO Jason Gorevic:
“One thing that obviously impressed me about your leadership is your ability to say where you’re going based on, as you've said, a plan from 7 years ago - the pyramid that you’ve always presented...
2/ ...that this is where we’re going to be someday. Everybody presents that, but you made it real block by block. I still have those initial slides of your presentation. As you’ve said, none of this is new in your mind.”
Link >>
3/ Am confident in $TDOC. Despite recent events: (i) MDLive acquired by $CI in Feb '21, and (ii) Dr. on Demand merging with Grand Rounds in Mar '21, and (iii) $AMZN Care offering services to employers across the nation by summer '21...