1/Let's talk about decarbonization!
How can America save the world from catastrophic climate change?
There is a way.
noahpinion.substack.com/p/decarbonizat…
How can America save the world from catastrophic climate change?
There is a way.
noahpinion.substack.com/p/decarbonizat…
2/It might seem, at first glance, like U.S. decarbonization is merely a symbolic moral gesture. After all, we're forecast to produce only 5% of global emissions this century.
Even eliminating all of that would be a drop in the bucket, right?
Even eliminating all of that would be a drop in the bucket, right?
https://twitter.com/vsiv/status/1339930789954396160
3/It's incredibly unfair that the U.S. was able to grow and develop for a century while belching carbon into the air, but now -- through the pure hard unyielding truths of physics -- developing Asia is going to have to do most of the work of decarbonization. 
4/This isn't about morality; it's about physics. Sure, we have higher per capita emissions, but the climate doesn't give a rat's ass about per capita emissions. It does not care one jot nor one tittle. Not a single iota or crumb does it care.
5/So if the world is to be saved, developing Asia must decarbonize. This is simply a physical fact.
But if decarbonization threatens Asian countries' growth, they will simply refuse to do it.
energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/repor…
But if decarbonization threatens Asian countries' growth, they will simply refuse to do it.
energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/repor…
6/China continues to power ahead with massive coal power expansion -- three times as much as the rest of the world combined.
You think "moral leadership" is going to stop that? If so, I have a bridge to sell you.
reuters.com/article/us-chi…
You think "moral leadership" is going to stop that? If so, I have a bridge to sell you.
reuters.com/article/us-chi…
7/So with only 5% of projected global emissions, how the hell can America save the world?
Answer: By making decarbonization CHEAP for developing countries.
Answer: By making decarbonization CHEAP for developing countries.
8/Varun Sivaram, special advisor to John Kerry, has been thinking hard about this problem. Check out this excellent thread.
https://twitter.com/vsiv/status/1339930067472936963
9/But I would like to add one more huge strategy to @vsiv's excellent list: LEARNING CURVES.
As we install more solar power and more storage, the cost of solar and storage goes down!
As we install more solar power and more storage, the cost of solar and storage goes down!
10/Now you might ask "Is this really causal? Do costs go down because we install more, or do we install more because costs go down?"
Well, researchers have looked into this question, and yes, scaling up solar power drives down the cost.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Well, researchers have looked into this question, and yes, scaling up solar power drives down the cost.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
11/So what we need to do is to massively speed up adoption and installation of renewables:
* solar PV
* wind
* battery storage
* other storage
* electric cars
This will drive down the cost, making these technologies so cheap that other countries will all switch!
* solar PV
* wind
* battery storage
* other storage
* electric cars
This will drive down the cost, making these technologies so cheap that other countries will all switch!
12/In fact, this may already be succeeding in India, where coal plants are being canceled at a rapid rate -- thanks to the cheapness of solar.
economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banki…
economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banki…
13/India now feels safe pushing very aggressive decarbonization targets.
Why?
Probably because industrialization will simply be cheaper with renewables now.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Why?
Probably because industrialization will simply be cheaper with renewables now.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
14/The real problem here is China. Unlike, India, China already has a vast existing base of installed coal plants, meaning renewables have to be much cheaper than EXISTING coal to get them to switch.
17/The ONLY way the U.S. can get China to decarbonize is to keep driving down the price of renewables until China decarbonizes out of pure economic self-interest.
Which means we have to install renewables at very high rates, very soon!
Which means we have to install renewables at very high rates, very soon!
18/Note that this means that carbon taxes, which are a diffuse policy that also limits economic growth, are of limited use. China isn't going to copy our carbon tax. And slower growth will simply tell the developing world that decarbonization hurts the economy.
19/And note that degrowth is particularly insane in the context of the global emissions problem.
If we teach countries like China that they have to choose between growth and decarbonization, they will NOT decarbonize.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
If we teach countries like China that they have to choose between growth and decarbonization, they will NOT decarbonize.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
20/So if we want America to save the planet, say NO to degrowth, and "meh" to carbon taxes.
What we need is massive investment, adoption, and scaling of renewables (along with continued R&D and green investment in other countries).
(end)
noahpinion.substack.com/p/decarbonizat…
What we need is massive investment, adoption, and scaling of renewables (along with continued R&D and green investment in other countries).
(end)
noahpinion.substack.com/p/decarbonizat…
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