Bear-to-Infinity? Few people remember my transformation to the bullish camp at the end of 2013 with SPX bubbling under 2k. Here’s an extract from the letter that caused a billion $s to walk. No one could handle a bullish moi...
Bob Ryan, from the US cable TV show Entourage. The show chronicles the workings of Hollywood
and Ryan is a legendary movie producer credited with a string of box office winners. His problem
is that his success was rather a long time ago.
and Ryan is a legendary movie producer credited with a string of box office winners. His problem
is that his success was rather a long time ago.
So no one is certain of his skills anymore. He makes seemingly absurd promises – think along the lines of "...what if I were to tell
you that this movie will cost peanuts to make, will earn you four Oscars and will gross $100m...is that something you might be interested in?"
you that this movie will cost peanuts to make, will earn you four Oscars and will gross $100m...is that something you might be interested in?"
In some walks of life (well, mine anyway) such is the
popularity of the show that the expression has entered the modern lexicon as a catchphrase for
offering up fantastical, if not actually impossible, ideas.
popularity of the show that the expression has entered the modern lexicon as a catchphrase for
offering up fantastical, if not actually impossible, ideas.
With that in mind, what if I were to tell you
that I have adopted a tactically bullish outlook? Is that something you might be interested in?
Last bear standing? Not any more…
that I have adopted a tactically bullish outlook? Is that something you might be interested in?
Last bear standing? Not any more…
I know what you are thinking. You are thinking that the last bear is capitulating. It isn’t a good
sign. Maybe it is that simple. But I think it is a little more complicated.
sign. Maybe it is that simple. But I think it is a little more complicated.
I sense that US monetary officials may now be willing to subordinate the demands of
their own economy to the perils confronting emerging market economies. If that is the case, the
great peril is not that the Fed finally tightens monetary policy and US stock prices tumble
their own economy to the perils confronting emerging market economies. If that is the case, the
great peril is not that the Fed finally tightens monetary policy and US stock prices tumble
Would that it were – our curmudgeonly portfolio
structure (think dynamic volatility targeting and stop losses) works well with big stock market
reversals. Instead the greater peril is that the current backdrop will turn out to mark a rapid
acceleration to the upside.
structure (think dynamic volatility targeting and stop losses) works well with big stock market
reversals. Instead the greater peril is that the current backdrop will turn out to mark a rapid
acceleration to the upside.
A hint that this might be the case comes from
looking back over 113 years of price data for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We have
done this (so you don’t have to), searching along the way for the comparable periods that fit most
tightly to the last 500 trading days.
looking back over 113 years of price data for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We have
done this (so you don’t have to), searching along the way for the comparable periods that fit most
tightly to the last 500 trading days.
What is clear is that periods of trading similar to the one we have seen over the last two years don’t often seem to end quietly: they boom big time or they crash.
Which is it to be this time? Looking at the markets of 1928, 1982 or even 1998, all of which have
scarily similar looking historical charts to today’s, we wonder if it won’t be both. Starting with the boom bit.
scarily similar looking historical charts to today’s, we wonder if it won’t be both. Starting with the boom bit.
Nothing like smoking the PTJ pipe from his
Amazing PTJ and Bono both pulled their masterpieces from public circulation. The mythical PBS doc on PTJ implied that he nailed the 1987 crash from mapping the chart of its 1929 predecessor. Of course there was much more to it but billionaires like to backwash their own stories.
Bull, bear or simply curious? I’ll let you decide. But I’ll tell you - there ain’t much that i haven’t tried at one point or another...
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