Usually, there will be a phase in life where nothing you do seems to be working. Sometimes no matter how much you try, most of it will be short lived, you wouldn't have clarity or much work to do.

This is the phase you should do background work in and keep PREPARING.
In this phase, it's important you don't let your frustration get to you or reflect in your behavior to your family members.

It's easy to be lost in the failures and be rude to your beloved ones. I was too.

But, if you're sincere and hard working, you will have a breakout.
The key here is that even when you're down and out, you have to believe that you will have a breakout.

You're not cheating anyone, you're not a scoundrel. You're sincerely working hard towards something that will help you help yourself, your family, and beloved ones.
So, it's only a matter of time before the ebb becomes flow.

And when that flow state comes, when that phase happens, everything you do, works in your favor.

And only those who kept preparing when they were down and out, despite the pain and suffering, will be ready.
If you prepared during the ebb phase, putting your head down, during the flow phase, you'll have all the arms to launch with aggressive attack.

It is VERY VERY IMPORTANT that you don't listen to ANYBODY in this phase.
When people who saw you suffering in the ebb phase, even out of love say that you have gained something (money, opportunities, etc.,) and that it's time you took some rest, they are saying it out of love and care alright.

But it's dangerous to pay heed to that advice.
Why?

Because it is very similar to catching onto a trend, but exiting in the very first pullback.

The trend you caught on would go on for 6 months in the instrument, but you exited on the 15th day.
The flow phase is sometimes difficult to come by.

Only those who struggled with pain, and cried themselves to sleep during night, in the phases where they were wishing that there would be some progress and results for their work would know the hunger.
Because you love your beloved ones, it's important not to feel satiated with a little return, and it's very important not to let them pour water on your fire.
Middle class people always want to maintain status quo, and they want to be happy with what they got.

This mindset is like termites. It will eat up whatever little chance you have got at utilizing this flow phase to the best possible, and extract the maximum out of it.
There's nothing wrong with being content with what you have got. You can be content after you have lived up to the best of your potential.

Not doing anything with god given potential and calling it being content with what you have got is just an excuse masking your laziness.
When you do get that flow phase in life where "தொட்டதெல்லாம் துலங்கும்" (anything you touch becomes successful) is happening, you should work doubly hard, and go on an all out aggression with respect to work and work ethic.
The perseverence and the hard work you put in during the down phase, you should put double triple that here.

But the fact is, even putting double triple amount of hard work doesn't feel like HARD work. It feels smooth. Things just flow. There's no resistance.
It's as if for months and years you're like the water building deep pressure, blocked by a dam, waiting to break out.

But you kept patiently waiting. You didn't rush. You waited to build the pressure from your end to the maximum. Then, the dam gave out. You broke through.
After all those months and years of waiting, would you stop at the very first obstacle? Or would you stop with covering only 200m of distance?

You have to go long. Use all the pent up momentum of running in the same place and all the saved up energy to go the maximum distance.
When things feel natural and when double-triple hard work feels like effortless, you should keep adding more work STRATEGICALLY.

It's important you recognize what's called as BURN OUT.

It's something that WILL NOT happen in the flow phase.

Burn out happens towards the fag end.
But throughout the flow phase, whatever you pound on, breaks and gives way. No force can match your momentum.

It's like the downfall in global markets that happened in march. Millions of people kept selling. No buyer was a match to that force. That's how you'll be in this phase.
So, you have to make sure you don't STOP. You have to make sure you think on the go about the risks vs rewards and take all the low-risk high-reward, horizontally correlated opportunities that come your way.

It's very important to say no to the things that are short term.
Building long-term things is very difficult during the down phase. During the down phase, you have to go for short term wins.

During the up phase of flow that follows the ebb is where you set up everything in your life for long term exponential payoffs for linear work.
Your wife is going to see you working 16 hours a day and ask you to sleep longer.

Your mother is going to see you working in weekends, and is going to ask you to chill for a while and go out during weekends.
Your mother-in-law might think you're working so hard and will ask you to take it slow.

Your sister/brother may look at you probably losing weight, or not eating 3 full meals, and say "you should not work so hard".
All these people will say these things out of concern. But while their advice is well-meaning, it mustn't be listened to.

Do your best to keep your body fit, don't eat junk, eat healthy whenever you're hungry.

That's all.

But go and pound at your goals as long as it takes.
What will happen if you do this:

1) You will be positioned at the end of down phase to recognize the flow phase when it starts (after the end of the ebb).

This is similar to being able to spot a bottom in the markets near march last week.
2) You will be PREPARED and READY - with all the knowledge, skills, tools to attack when the flow phase starts with your work, work ethic, and discipline.

This is like being completely in cash and having everything saved up for when you spot the bottom.
3) You will recognize the flow phase as soon as it starts and start an all out attack.

This is similar to going full size and heavy weight on top 5-6 nifty stocks, and going long nifty futures with all your cash, very aggressively, at the end of march.
4) You will have the conviction to not book profits in the very first gain and sit out by listening to others.

This is akin to going long with full size, and staying put, ignoring those who said it was a temporary pullback and that 3000 was coming in NIFTY.
5) You will keep adding whatever you can, from wherever you can, to your efforts, to all the opportunities that come your way. You will keep attacking.

You will keep exploiting the juice out of the flow phase until the last final drop is sucked dry.
This is very similar to riding and trailing with a generous stop loss until the very end of the trend.

6) The trend eventually ends. Maybe at the end of two three years, or maybe after few many months. But you have done your best in extracting the last drop out of it.
7) Before finally cashing out, you start noticing the trend changing. Maybe one or two things didn't work. Maybe something you took up did not pay off.

You start recognizing that it is time to relax your pressure on the accelerator.
This is when you start booking profits. This is a consolidation phase with several bearish signals. Could be technical. Could be macro. But you start to secure your positions, or even hedge them, and you start taking profits out of the market.
8) This is towards the end of the flow phase, after which another ebb will start.

But you recognize that. You are more than comfortably positioned to go through another ebb.
9) You also know what kind of efforts should go into this forthcoming ebb phase so that the next flow phase also can be taken advantage of, in the best possible way.

Only difference: You take the foot off the pedal, and now during the ebb phase, you're able to relax and chill.
10) You have now used the flow phase to set up long-term exponential pay off efforts and projects. You have put in all the ground work required.

You did all that and despite working so hard, there was no resistance and everything felt effortless.
11) But you recognise that the upcoming phase you will face several resistances.

You will have to take some beating. You are going to face resistance, hit resistance, and fall down a bit.

You will face situations that don't work in your favor in terms of perceived risk-reward.
12) You already know that though. That's why you have booked most of your profits, and beginning this phase with as little size as possible.

That's why you are not crashing at the resistance with the maximum speed, but you are going towards resistance at 30kmph, foot off pedal.
13) Deep down, you know that there will be some consolidation where you recollect your efforts, rejuvenate your strengths, repair your vehicle, relax and fix your engine, and then prepare yourself for days and months and years, until the next race, until the next flow.
14) Until then, you are going to grind, grind, grind.

But this time, you will be able to grind, and still spend time with children, spouse, parents, and friends.

You know that you don't want to burn out. You realise there's no point to all this if you don't take time to live.
15) Until the flow phase arrives, you're going to keep your work 70-80% and living/enjoying 20-30%.

You recognize that there could be 3-4 such phases left in your life, one per decade maybe.
16) With each phase, you reduce your aggression a little, and you live a little more, make life easier for yourself and people around you.

The last 2 phases - even the ebb feels like flow. That's all the hard work and effort you did in the first 2-3 down phases paying off.
17) And, eventually you recognize at a certain phase that none of this is of any use if you don't give it back and if you don't fulfill your other wishes.

You start focusing on those other wishes, and now you are mostly 70-80% living, 20-30% work.
18) The beauty of all this?

Towards the last two phases, the 20-30% work you do, has 10x more effect than the first 2-3 phases where you put 70-80% work.

That's the power of compounding of efforts. You have made compounding work in your favor. And you silently reap the rewards.

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20 Mar
Becoming wealthy and free is often a matter of hard work. But doing it peacefully is a matter of luck.

When you're single: Your parents and how they treat you, how your equation with them is - will largely impact how you do in life.
When you're married:

Your equation with your spouse, her equation with your parents, your equation with her parents, and her parents' equation with your parents and vice versa, all of these things will impact your life.
If you're a man, no matter what happens anywhere, ultimately everything and everyone end up smashing your head only.

So, to be able to work and take pressure/stress at work, it's important to have peace at home.

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If you have a well backtested system, chances are it will continue to work for a long time.

For beginners though, starting to trade your system when your system is in a drawdown helps maximise the probability of wins nearby.
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You can keep trading the system in forward testing phase where you are trading fixed lot size, very conservatively.

You can use drawdown period to start aggressive compounding.
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If we want to optimise this, the first non-creative idea one can think of is, slicing the order into different lot sizes, and placing a limit order for each slice at the mid point of current best bid & ask.

But this requires your latency to be the least.
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Even if you keep 10 ticks per second, your best bid/ask can shift from the time you place to the time exchange receives the order.
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Yesterday, we had a meeting with a trader who joined in 2017 and part of the first batch of energy traders at our branch.

These are both traders who trade based on fundamentals, lowest churn and roundtrips done every month, but most of the months profitable type traders.
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How markets react during and after hurricanes that affect US Gulf coast, how the demand and supply metrics affect price, how the spot market affects futures, and so on.
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The Python Backtesting course Update:

First batch of the course is in the 9th week of the 12-week duration.

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How to generate trading strategies:

1) Data mining
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