Remember all the worry that I and others had about the French actually doing what they told pollsters they would? To my great relief it was, as French people talking to pollsters usually is, not a problem at all. Care homes in France are almost as well vaccinated as in England.
I expect this to continue right down the age range and across all vaccine platforms. There's not much of a story to be had in that, but all the data is saying "you were wrong to worry, and you shouldn't worry now, it's going to be fine".
To further interrupt "the narrative" with the astonishingly boring data. (via covidtracker.fr of course). This is the impact of France suspending AstraZeneca vaccines for a few days in the week just past. So close to zilch as to be unworthy of comment. No problem. At all.
Point A: "SCANDAL OF UNINJECTED DOSES".
Point B: *crickets*.
As you can see, for the next three weeks AstraZeneca just can't manage to supply Europe. There are not huge numbers of vaccines sat in fridges. Vaccine hesitancy (largely an imagined problem) just won't matter.
I am confident that this excellent new data from the USA will further reassure the French public that the AZ vaccine is safe, which is good news. Though it won't really matter, since acceptance of the vaccine is already well above the level required.
I should say,... I did kind of believe that vaccine acceptance would be a problem in France. The polls looked really bad at the end of last year. Less than half of French saying they'd get vaccinated. But, as so often with French polls, the French were lying.
What is astonishing in all of this is that basically no-one in the UK cares about the data right. Zero of the takes from left, right, centre, calm, excitable, rational, it doesn't matter. The UK takes don't care about the data. We are in a war-like trance.
Which may turn out to be a not completely unreasonable state of mind. We'll find out on Thursday.

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More from @thomasforth

22 Mar
Read that piece in The Sun (I know, I shouldn't, but oh well) about how the PM regrets allowing a devolved response to Covid. All in together would no doubt be popular among many. So I stuck together the rates of death by region and nation of the UK. It's a hard sell here. Image
I think "mentioned on death certificate" is probably the better comparison. On most international comparison sites (FT for example) you'll get the within 28 days of positive test data. And that's even more stark, though probably a bit misleadingly so. Image
The age-standardised death rate will be notably higher in London because of its younger population (and possibly smaller population if there has been a pandemic exodus). But the story is pretty clear, the parts of England that do worst on most things,... did worst on this too.
Read 4 tweets
22 Mar
Well,... I did not see today's news on this coming.
I look forward to a good piece by the usual suspects of good journalism in and of Scotland explaining precisely WTF happened. theguardian.com/politics/2021/…
My point, in response to a good question, is that I was pretty convinced that Nicola Sturgeon would be found to have broken the Ministerial Code. It had been leaked and conversation had even shifted onto whether she would resign, and how that would affect the elections.
Read 4 tweets
22 Mar
Lots of exciting stuff happening in Bradford, with lots of chance for a really ambitious government to support the local ambition with loads of cash. Such a fantastic opportunity for the UK.
Bradford and the North don't have the money to do this ourselves. I wish we did, but we don't. So it really is about national ambition. Do we have the same national ambition for our great cities like Bradford as Germany showed for its cities like Liepzig?
Liepzig used to have two railway stations on largely disconnected networks. Then they built a tunnel. Bradford is a city of the same size. With a similar economy to what Liepzig had when they did the digging. It's a question of ambition and belief in the future of the UK. ImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
22 Mar
An excellent and important piece by @FraserNelson on what reasonable people of all opinions should be able to agree on --- questioning his and others identity is not an acceptable line of argument and should be kept out of all respectable discourse. telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/…
But (you knew one was coming) I don't feel that the UK's institutions rise as far as above this level as he. Place of residence and work is used, never quite as formally but nearly as effectively, within the UK too. I document example after example of it. It is clear.
And that expands into official action too. When Jacob Rees-Mogg began, as quickly as possible, to pull back the ability of MPs to vote digitally, and for the rest of us to fully take part in our democracy at a distance, he was cementing an unwritten part of the UK constitution.
Read 4 tweets
22 Mar
Because France publishes its vaccine supply expectations as #opendata (with some naughty definition of when the vaccines "arrive"), and since EU vaccines are (close to) shared evenly we have a pretty good idea about vaccine supply disruption for the whole of the EU.
Most of the EU-UK falling out, which has a risk of really escalating this week, will be about how AstraZeneca are assigning the limited doses as their production falls short of their promises. What are they required to do, what they will do, and why might those two be different?
And since none of us can understand the EU-AZ contract, not really if we're honest,... and since none of us can see the UK-AZ contract, or UK supply data,... I can't see how we'll be having a fruitful discussions this week. I expect loads of screaming.
Read 6 tweets
22 Mar
Rail nerds of twitter: When this excellent project finally gets built,... which station in Birmingham will the trains go to? Is the plan still Moor Street? Or have they gone back to New Street?
New Street it is. As a veteran of the 50 bus, at worst close to an hour in traffic up to Kings Heath, I am well aware of how important this is for Birmingham's economic success. Excellent stuff.
As long-time followers will know, I have tracked most buses in the West Midlands for about three years now (sounds very weird when I write it). It's all #opendata so I can show you how long buses from Birmingham to Kings Heath took on 22 November 2019. realjourneytime.co.uk/?options=true&… Image
Read 7 tweets

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