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David Henig Profile picture
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22 Mar, 5 tweets, 2 min read
I wasn't overly confident of the chances of the US and EU working meaningfully together on China. But such sanctions are likely to make it a lot easier.

And China's economy is not so strong as to not need good trading relations with EU and US.
Quite an interesting time in China's economic development, as they're hoping to move up the value chain from electricals made on behalf of others to more sophisticated products and Chinese brands in "Made in China 2025". cfr.org/backgrounder/m…
There have to be big questions about the compatibility of a political system which puts the party ahead of any other interest with the need to develop strong commercially trusted brands. I'm as yet unconvinced.
Also Chinese sanctions on the EU are interestingly timed in the UK as the Commons for the first time gets a vote on the #GenocideAmendment - might there now be enough Conservative votes to defeat the government?
On China and digital trade. ft.com/content/679703…

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
23 Mar
Perhaps this should be different, but I don't think the EU are paying too much attention to dire warnings from any UK source about what should happen in the event of an export ban. There is, to put it mildly, a credibility issue.
Not that past performance fully determines future results, but an EU with 50 years + of external trade relations versus a UK with less than 3 months, and several times bigger in population and economy, is going to think they have the upper hand.
Aha, those who read my tweets rather than just assume the wheelbarrows of EU money and scripts turn up every day may say, but you often say the EU has a problem in relations with neighbours? Guilty. The EU can be very arrogant indeed towards neighbours. And not listen.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
23 Mar
There is something to be explored on a complex world bringing a need for certainty and simplistic solutions therefore appealing. Or perhaps we just need to make it ok to say "don't know" more often.
Just over a year ago I was preparing for a House of Lords Select Committee appearance on the Northern Ireland protocol and on checking various cross references realised I couldn't explain every last detail, it was too complex, and decided to say that.
I was fortunate enough that my fellow panellists on said occasion seemed to have reached roughly the same conclusion, so instead of trying to explain how the protocol worked we explained why we didn't know. We had the best response I'd known at such a session.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
22 Mar
Don't we already have an emissary in Brussels? Plus a Minister in charge of EU relations. Almost as if the structure isn't quite working and EU relations are rather weak... ft.com/content/9e195a…
As for the cognitive dissonance between claiming the UK's future is Indo-Pacific and having to negotiate intensely with the neighbours on life and death supplies... well let's just say any serious scholar knows relations with the neighbours are by far the most important.
As a country you can choose your level of relations with the neighbours, you cannot choose who your neighbours are, or their importance to you. At some point the UK will again realise this.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
22 Mar
The level of certainty on vaccine supply twitter is out of all proportion to the number of facts actually known.
Most of all the difference in the EU and UK contracts with AZ does not seem so much as to fully explain the difference in supply - and I think it is the search for some piece of missing evidence that has driven most of the EU's worst decisions.
But watching the faltering attempts of AZ to explain their vaccine delivery shortfall to the EU I'm not sure it is contractual - it could quite easily be a plan that failed, and since the supply chain to the UK was working let's keep that going.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
22 Mar
Think this is right. But the whole farrago shows once again that the single most crucial economic and foreign policy relationship the UK has is with the EU. Because ultimately geography - e.g. production facilities, security etc.
The UK can join CPTPP. Tilt to the Indo-Pacific. Accept US food standards in a trade deal. And we will still be a European country and economy, more affected by regional supply chains and what Brussels does than any other relationship.
So perhaps after five years the government might finally realise that our relationship with Sweden or Netherlands is far more important than that with Australia or Singapore. And might stop trying to run it all as an exercise in media management in the Cabinet Office.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
21 Mar
As may have been mentioned a few times before we need to be careful in our handling of the EU. Which doesn't make them right. But that we have to be skilful with the bigger neighbour, particularly when they're wrong. And we have little credit right now. theguardian.com/world/2021/mar…
True the EU is only a few weeks behind the UK on vaccinations. But never mind UK or US voices, even the Commission has been drawing attention to their own failures, which has been one of their biggest failures.
We shall see, but between traditionally poor EU relations with neighbours, their poor vaccine handling, and the UK government's neglect of diplomacy, and bragging how much better we are than the EU (a source of our success) it would hardly be a surprise.
Read 6 tweets

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