Outstanding 🧵 by @The_Lagrangian explains what is wrong with probabilistic/Bayesian rationalism, and what is so attractive about it that so many people adopt it despite its defects.
@The_Lagrangian Probabilistic analysis can be extremely powerful, but technically it has prerequisites that are *never* satisfied in macroscopic reality.
You have to make a small-world idealization in which you pretend it applies, and then do all this stuff meaningfully:
@The_Lagrangian You can always make up arbitrary numbers and hope that’s better than nothing, and sometimes it is, but it’s more likely garbage-in/garbage-out, and a way of fooling yourself into greater confidence than is warranted:
@The_Lagrangian Unfortunately, since the technical conditions for probability theory to generate actually-truly-true truths essentially never apply, Bayesian reasoning should be regarded in most cases as metaphorical, poetical, mythological, in the fantasy land of As-If:
@The_Lagrangian Adam’s extraordinary thread operates at three levels interwoven: the technical level of the limitations of probability theory, the psychology of its attractiveness, and the social dynamics of its use in geeky subcultures:
🎙 Two very different, worthwhile podcasts about the decaying university system:
🎙 @MeganMOConnor with @eriktorenberg on the unbundling of vocational/technical education. Universities aren’t well-suited for the current main purpose, educating people who want mainstream jobs. Megan and Erik discuss promising alternatives. spreaker.com/user/10197011/…
🎙 @PsychRabble on @fourbeerspod discussing the political corruption of academia, particularly social psychology.
The anecdotes are troubling, but as an outsider, I can’t tell quantitatively how bad this is. The hosts push back some at the end.
The problem with orthodox opinion is not that it bans contradiction, it’s that it makes people uncomfortable saying anything other than whatever the orthodoxy has designated as the most important thing to say today.
Let us now read the catechism aloud in unison
More obviously I’m subtweeting political twitter, which encourages contradicting the Bad Tribe, but only concerning Trending Topics.
Less obviously, I’m subtweeting Buddhist twitter, which is terrified to say anything that might not be sufficiently holy.
Western Buddhists’ dysfunctional relationship with authority combines rejection of respect for mere humans who have great depth of understanding, with pathetic deference to absurd and obsolete doctrines.
The former are “no better than anyone else,” the latter “ancient wisdom.”
When white people rant about how racist and awful all white people are, maybe they mean something by “white supremacy” other than the official definition.
Some anti-racism is not about race... what actual experience of white people does it express?
Spending time in many different countries and cultures lets you see how sex and gender work differently. America is more rigorously egalitarian than almost all, yet many women feel they live in a rigidly oppressive patriarchy.
Returning to the US after months away, I’m immediately struck by how uncomfortable American gender relations are. We’re doing *something* exceptionally wrong.
Calling that “patriarchy” is misleading if taken literally, but it expresses real pervasive legitimate revulsion.
I first noticed this with “capitalism,” which means something quite different—more local and personal and concrete—for anti-capitalists than for economists.
Roughly, “I hate my job and my boss, there’s not enough money, same for everyone I know.”
It’s a huge problem that everyone hates their job and their boss, and most *don’t* pay enough. Those in power are entirely failing to take that seriously, which makes most people rightly angry.
Blaming “capitalism” is technically wrong, but most people know what you mean.
“Destroying capitalism” would make everything catastrophically worse if “capitalism” means what economists mean by it.
But the current pattern of economic stagnation plus housing cost inflation plus increasing income inequality does need creative destruction.
Save this link in case of emergencies (you or someone you know is having trouble with meditation that affects your ability to function normally for more than a little while after stopping meditation): cheetahhouse.org/get-help-intro
Being a sciency kinda guy, I'd like quantitative evidence.
Much of the academic and clinical work on negative effects of meditation has been done by Willoughby Britton and her colleagues. See her site for details! vivo.brown.edu/display/wbritt…