Quick 🧵.

I think the idea that “lockdowns saved lives” doesn’t make sense in pretty straightforward ways that we don’t seem to be talking about enough.

(1/12)
The most prominent US study (story on it linked below) suggests that lockdowns helped avoid 60 million coronavirus cases. Otherwise, we’d have about triple the number of confirmed cases we have now.

Let’s use that as a starting point.

google.com/amp/s/www.wash…

(2/12)
To make things simple and round, let’s assume that 3x cases = 3x deaths. This overstates the current mortality rate of COVID (esp accounting for true caseloads vs. positive tests) but accounts for some inexact pressure on hospitals and other systems.

(3/12)
Under this really optimistic assessment, lockdowns can be credited with saving roughly 1 million lives in the US.

That’s a lot of people who are here today who wouldn’t be otherwise.

But let’s factor in one other factor: increased obesity.

(4/12)
The number of people who die as a result of obesity is hard to nail down. Estimates range from 100k-525k. Let’s use the high end for example’s sake.

A recent-ish study found that, every year, ~1 in 5 US deaths (so 513k) are associated w/obesity. nbcnews.com/healthmain/hea…

(5/12)
That’s with a current US obesity rate of 42%.

A new study estimates that people, on average, gained about 2 lbs/month during the pandemic. Let’s say, for the sake of simple numbers, that this bumps the obesity rate to 52%, up 10%.

google.com/amp/s/www.nyti…

(6/12)
This would be about a 25% increase - so a big gain - but for context, if one third of the presently overweight (but not obese) population gained enough weight to become obese, that would give us a rate of 52%. healthline.com/health/obesity…

(7/12)
Let’s say that this 10% increase translates 1:1 to the death rate from obesity we’ve outlined earlier.

That would mean ~51,307 more deaths a year if present rates and other conditions hold.

(8/12)
That would mean that, in less than 20 years, the number of lockdown-created obesity deaths would entirely wipe out the lives saved by the lockdown under the rosiest estimates.

(9/12)
This is without accounting for all the other health consequences - especially related to mental health - the lockdown exacerbated. I’ve written more about those here: google.com/amp/s/www.nyti…

(10/12)
And, mind you, the entire premise that lives were indeed saved in the first is disputed. This piece from WSJ makes a pretty compelling case that the evidence just isn’t there. google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.…

(11/12)
These are all back-of-the-napkin calculations. The real world is messier and some of these assumptions may be unreasonable. But hopefully it outlines why, when we talk about the lockdown, we’ve absolutely gotta look at the consequences beyond just the economic.

(12/12)

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More from @DrewHolden360

19 Mar
Okay fine🧵.

Guys. People lost their minds when Trump walked slowly down a ramp one time.

I don’t think the Biden stair stumble stuff should matter. But boy did the media set one hell of a precedent about presidential walking patterns.

And if you’ve forgotten, read on ⤵️
Remember this very earnest and concerned @nytimes story (and video!)? Suggesting his “halting walk” “raises new health questions”??

I wonder if we’ll hear about how Biden is the oldest president when (if?) his stair story hits print.
And people picked this story up. This was a whole news cycle! Here’s @kylegriffin1 and @jaketapper sharing this story as if it were something that mattered.
Read 25 tweets
19 Mar
@ChrisCillizza, are we getting a 2,000 word story on Biden’s stumble?
They fact checked the weather when Trump walked down a ramp guys does anyone remember this.
Trump walked down a ramp weird and we had a full blown media panic attack.
Read 6 tweets
18 Mar
A lot of people have suggested that the insane Covid focus on Florida is an attempt to kneecap DeSantis in 2024.

But I think it’s more a visceral response to the idea that governors who didn’t *appear* to care as much could’ve succeeded.

It doesn’t compute for many. Quick 🧵
Part of this, I think, is just a natural human response to a crisis: we want people who act like they’re doing everything to keep us safe. That’s why Cuomo’s pressers were such a hit: it was the reassurance, purportedly, that someone really cares.
Plus for lots of people there’s surely some mental requirement to justify their own behavior and suffering: the reason I’ve been inside is because I will help end this thing, so if other people aren’t doing what I am, they don’t care. That it isn’t actually that neat is bypassed.
Read 12 tweets
17 Mar
The logic on this is pretty ridiculous. The study Rupar is talking about focuses on major cities, esp NYC and LA.

Are we meant to believe that there are marauding bands of Trump supporters there, responding to his “racist” language?
Here’s a write up of the study - which, to be clear, is based on data from 2019 and 2020, so mostly before the pandemic. Most of the “effect” is just conjecture. google.com/amp/s/www.nbcn…
Also - and please don’t read this as excusing hate crimes - a lot of this is just a matter of small numbers. Hate crimes against Asian Americans, percentage wise, had a huge uptick from 2019 to 2020, that’s true.

From 3 to 28.
Read 6 tweets
16 Mar
Biden Admin is just gaslighting on this
I will say that, while the mental gymnastics around not saying “kids in cages” is bullshit, I appreciate seeing the media continuously cover what’s going on at the border.
Escape the fact checkers
Read 4 tweets
15 Mar
My earnest take on the WAP Grammy performance vs. Dr Seuss thing is that it’s an unsurprising result of what happens when one side gives a shit about what they’re fighting for and the other doesn’t.
Those who believe that things like potentially racialized comics are a threat to equity actually care about what they’re fighting for.

But basically no one actively cares if a song’s performance is vulgar. Some people pretend to, to score cheap political points.
It’s Janet-Jackson-Justin-Timberlake-Super-Bowl all over again forever. People hem and haw and appeal to some general sense that Something Is Bad but no one is compelled to attempt change anything.
Read 7 tweets

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