Thread by @LionnetPierre

A thread: Newspace companies founding chronology is it a typical hype cycle? 1/13

Among the easiest information points to find about newspace companies is the founding date. I thought it would be interesting to create a chronological map of the upstream and midstream companies in my list, and align it with the current level of employment in the companies. 2/13

This last bit of information is of course less easy to find, to the point that it may seems that employment figures are a taboo in the start-up environment. 3/13

This may be due to the fact that so many start-ups never achieve growth and remain in that situation where the 4 portrait photos on the website represent the totality of the workforce 4/13

I made a few statistics - bearing in mind that I only consider companies with a business case that involves production and/or operation of space systems 5/13

Total number of companies: 789. Total employment: 28400. Average company size: 40 employees (not counting companies without employment data). Median company size: 10 employees (not counting companies without employment data). 6/13

Company employment distribution: very concentrated in top tier - the 10 largest companies provide 50% of the total employment. 7/13

When looking at the rate of creation we see a marked acceleration in 2013 and 2014. It is difficult to determine what can be the reason for this, but it is hard not to associate it with the ramp up of SpaceX activities in the same period, and the media presence of @elonmusk 8/13

It was also after the O3B acquisition by SES, and the beginning of the fundraiser activities for Oneweb by @greg_wyler 9/13

It may be an exaggeration to say that the whole newspace trend was actually driven by just two persons, but It may be interesting to research specifically that period for specific media activity surrounding space projects. 10/13

It is interesting to note that the rate of creation is falling fast in 2019 and 2020. It is of course too early to say what 2021 will be, and if 2020 was impacted by Covid, but I'd bet the burst and excitement are gone now. 11/13

Looking at this preliminary data set it looks like the creation rate is following the typical hype cycle. The decrease seen in 2019 and 2020 maybe the announcement of the "through of disappointment" phase. 12/13

How low will that through be? Will there be a slope of entertainement next? and if so, when will it happen? Will the space SPAC craze contribute to more disappointment? Or more enlightment? 13/13

Another interesting chart here: nanosats.eu/img/fig/Nanosa…

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