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Pierre Lionnet Profile picture
Pierre Lionnet
@LionnetPierre
Space economist (one of the very few) - Research & Managing Director at Eurospace - views are mine not Eurospace
Oct 10 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
With @NedhirSahli we are regularly updating our launch events database, and today we had a closer look at the Falcon 9 Transporter missions. Let's share our findings in a little thread. #spacex #falcon9 #transporter
1/ When the Transporter missions were first proposed by SpaceX I was intrigued by the pricing system, and I was wondering whether the missions were able to yield a profit at all. My original 2021 post is here.
2/
Oct 3, 2023 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
“Northrop was uncertain that the commercial market existed beyond guaranteed contracts to house NASA astronauts, and this is likely what led to its decision to drop a bid.”
I share this view. 1/ Moreover I believe that all these NASA “newspace” type of procurement contracts (COTS/CRS, CLD, CLPS…) will be a major disappointment for suppliers in the long run. 2/
Aug 10, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Interested in some @RocketLab #Electron launch data?
I've been compiling the last 3,5 available years of data from the 10-Q and 10-K reports, and have found a few intersting facts.
TL/DR:
- average unit price >6,1M$
- average mass launched: <90kg
- average price/kg: <70k$
1/ First, the general trend for Electron price is increasing.
See here the average unit price per launch per year.
Note that 2023, includes HASTE, a suborbital launch.
2/ Electron average unit price
Jul 14, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
I have this bad habit of looking into financial statements of space companies. Today I found it interesting to compare side by side the financial statements of @RocketLab USA and its NZ subsidiary.
1/ The NZ subsidiary of RL provides exclusive services and products to its USA parent. While goods are sold 'at cost', for services the NZ sub applies a 'margin to cost of 5 to 10%'.
2/ Image
May 10, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Let's do some simple math to compare broadband satellute systems then. The main metrics will be capacity/kg in orbit. I will also consider the useful satellite life expectancy to be complete.
1/ Assumptions on Starlink useful capacity are many. There seems to be consensus between 15 and 20 Gbps/satellite (V1). This would equate to up to 0,08 Gbps/kg/year (assuming 250kg) and 0,4 Gbps/kg over 5 years of usage.
2/
blog.apnic.net/2021/06/02/eve…
Feb 5, 2023 • 24 tweets • 10 min read
So we have a new space SPAC breeding. Last year I worked with a master student on a toolbox to analyse the SPAC thesis. Let's see how Intuitive Machines performs on our indicators. 👉This is NOT investment advice.
1/
 First the source: the analyst day presentation is here: intuitivemachines.com/_files/ugd/7c2…
There is one first red flag. The complete financial statements for 2021 and 2020 are not included in it. They should.
2/
Feb 4, 2023 • 25 tweets • 6 min read
Hey @John__Holst your piece on Arianespace raises a few interesting points. But there are some that are a bit biased I think. Allow me to discuss them.
1/ open.substack.com/pub/illdefined… My 1st point is the comparison: Ariane is a strategic launcher for Europe, and would be better compared to ULA Vulcan than SpaceX Falcon. Like A6, Vulcan is late, expendable, and cost US taxpayers >2B$ in development. A6 has yet to cost that much to Europe (but close...).
2/
Jan 28, 2023 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
In the midst of growing financial difficulties, GOMSpace will be laying off about 30% of its personnel, a piece of news that went rather unnoticed on my twitter feed.
1/
 bt.dk/erhverv/uro-i-… GOMspace also announced leadership changes, in a press release that does not give any details about the reasons for the change.
2/
 spacewatch.global/2023/01/gomspa…
Jan 27, 2023 • 13 tweets • 7 min read
Did you know that @esa and @euronext have created a European Space stock index? The index is called EN HELIOS SPACE and it is found here: live.euronext.com/en/product/ind…
Is it any good?
A thread
1/12 According to ESA the HELIOS SPACE index will be a "barometer", a "benchmark" and will "raise awareness" on space companies.
But can the index fulfill this promise?
commercialisation.esa.int/european-space…
2/12
Oct 30, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Interested in learning more about #amazonkuiper? Here's a video for you. Dave Limp Amazon SVP in charge of Kuiper talks with @wapodavenport. Spoiler alert: very little actual information is provided. Here's a summary. 1/
Amazon wants to target "tens of millions of customers", and will focus on lowering the user terminal price. The "bill of materials" alone is under 400$ he says. Admittedly the Kuiper Ka band satelllite & terminal are more complex than Starlink's Ku one. 2/
Oct 26, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
What about some newspace metrics today? Here are the key figures I shared at today's #EUSpaceForum panel on financing and investing in space. 1/ The chronology of #newspace company creation worldwide with the total funding raised: 44b$ in 2 decades (only considering the upstream and downstream segments). See how company creation grew after 2012, and how it is receding in recent years. 2/
Oct 7, 2022 • 17 tweets • 8 min read
I would like to add my 2cts worth of wisdom to the opinion piece by @SPongruber that sadly concludes that "the question of how big the space economy is remains unanswered". Shall I mention that I respectfully disagree? 1/n Image The paper recalls the story of the 1 Trillion space economy 'invention' and traces it back to the seminal estimate of 340B$ originally produced by @BryceSpaceTech for the SIA in 2016. 2/n Image
Jun 24, 2022 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
Like every year, with @space_angelC we are updating the Eurospace #spaceeconomy data set with the compilation of 2021 launch events. I will post a few charts making this thread grow as I get them ready. So let's get started. 1/n #eurospacefacts First the global situation. A few charts to look at the main trends in space activity from the supplier perspective, and in mass at launch. 2/
Jun 3, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Here is another episode of the never ending launch price/cost saga, starring @momentusspace: I am surprised that I have not yet seen any commentary on their appreciation of the price of access to orbit as shown in the May 2022 investor presentation. static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/sa_pre… 1/ Beyond the fact that I don't know what is their basis for calculations, in particular how they allocate the cost of "own propulsion" to the launch, considering that the propulsion systems serves other functions, I gather from this that 15k$/kg is their price tag? 2/
May 29, 2022 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
#Starlink Gen2 is 5x bigger and 10x more capable than Gen1, i.e. 2x more efficient (not considering potential lifetime extension). Curious to see if service price drops accordingly, to enable more market penetration. But let's have a look at some launch numbers now. 1/ If Starlink Gen2 is 30000 satellites (spacenews.com/spacex-goes-al…) it represents 36000 tons at launch in total. Or 240 #Starship flights (at 150t/flight). 2/
May 21, 2022 • 14 tweets • 7 min read
I thought I was the only using the burger analogy to explain space economics (scientificamerican.com/article/spacex…), well no: this report finds that a spaceport has an economic impact comparable to a couple of fast food restaurants. 1/ This was an independent assessment of the economic impact of a vertical launch site in Michigan, very much applicable to the spaceport project in Camden (Ga) that is facing a successful opposition from the locals. 2/ thecurrentga.org/2022/02/08/cam…
thecurrentga.org/2022/05/10/wha…
May 12, 2022 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
Quite some info here on @VirginOrbit and #launcherone to feed the never ending saga of launch costs reduction. Is it happening? is it supporting the 'smallsat revolution'? is it 'democratising' space and making it 'accessible to everyone'? 1/ First we read that the January 2022 launch yielded 2.1M$. With a total mass launched of less than 30kg, for 6 cubesats deployed (according to @planet4589 here: planet4589.org/space/gcat/dat…) that is a whopping >70k$/kg to orbit. Hardly a bargain. 2/
Jan 16, 2022 • 24 tweets • 5 min read
Starlink: 2000 satellites launched (and >10% already decommissioned). Why isn't #SpaceX accelerating the deployment? What is preventing it? Why is it not happening? I would have expected a higher frequency Starlink launch rate at this point (40-50 launches/year at least). 1/ I know that this is not a popular opinion, but I can only see two (non mutually exclusive) reasons for this: 1) Falcon9 is too expensive; 2) Falcon9 turnaround time is too long. Tu put it short: it is not as effective as required. 2/
Jan 11, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
"ESA Reignites Space-based Solar Power Research" shar.es/aWEETb via @spacecom - But does ESA considers a comprehensive study to assess the global impact of the large scale launch activity required to support the deployment of large solar power facilities in orbit? 1/ I attended most of the ESA workshop on solar Power Satellites mentioned in the article, and the question of the carbon/climate/energy footprint of launch was not a headline topic and was not addressed. For a "net zero" approach this seemed very incomplete to me. 2/
Dec 22, 2021 • 10 tweets • 9 min read
Hello Space Twitter. As 2021 s coming to a close, I am looking back at my tweet history, and thought it would be interesting to share the most significant threads I published in 2021. I have gathered them by themes in this thread of threads. 1/ About launch markets and launch costs 2/






Dec 20, 2021 • 25 tweets • 8 min read
After seeing so many "artistic" space market forecasts lying around, and considering that this art form seems not so difficult, I decided to try my hand at it with a forecast on constellations markets. Here is my step by step tutorial applied to real data. 1/ But first the key findings. If ALL constellations announced today eventually secure the funding to deploy in full, the total (additional) satellite demand would be between 40 and 60 B$/year, and the launch demand would be 8B$/year. There would be >16000 sats launched per year. 2/ ImageImage