1/4

It might seem to make obvious sense to have the government play a crucial role in the development of "chokehold technologies", but historical precedents suggest at least two problems which Beijing should try to avoid (and which so far it hasn't).

scmp.com/economy/china-…
2/4

First, politcal (and military) considerations rather than economic ones are usually what drive the process. Second, and allied to the first, the diffuse nature of government involvement and subsidies makes it almost impossible to cost trophy technology and determine...
3/4

whether or not it is economically sustainable. We just assume that once a country has leaped frogged into a much higher level of technology, this will automatically become viable whether or not the social, legal, political and other institutions are in place.
4/4

This isn't to say that there is no room for an industrial policy towards technology. Clearly there is, but along with the many successful cases in history, there are also many unsuccessful cases, and proponents tend only to see the former while opponents only see the latter.

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More from @michaelxpettis

24 Mar
1/8

We've long known that local governments have a lot of hidden (and illegal) debt, but what makes this article interesting is that Liu Lei, a senior researcher at a government-linked think tank, said in a public interview that he estimates it to be...

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/8

close to 15% of GDP. In fact unofficial studies suggest it is probably higher, but it is still a striking number.

The timing is interesting. We seem to be getting 2-3 very worried statements a week – and not just in the specialized journals – about debt, financial...
3/8

instability, speculative behavior, and all the balance-sheet problems that should have been, but weren't, at the heart of our economic analysis for over a decade. It now seems to me that the concern among the more sophisticated policy advisors, and the negative...
Read 8 tweets
24 Mar
1/5

In recent days investors seem to have become net sellers of Chinese government bonds. About 2 months ago I wrote that while for the past two years foreign investors had been buying Chinese government bonds mainly for the yield pickup, they seemed...

reut.rs/3cddBQN
2/5

increasingly to be buying because of currency-appreciation expectations.

This, I argued, is a very different type of investor strategy, and would change the dynamics of the market. The former strategy was stabilizing, but the latter was highly self-reinforcing, and so...
3/5

was more likely to lead to volatile ups and downs.

This seems to be what is happening, and perhaps is why Beijing's leading regulators suddenly started warning about the risks of unfettered capital inflows and how they can destabilize China's financial markets.
Read 6 tweets
23 Mar
1/4

Very good piece by @ryanlcooper that should be more widely read. While there are times when our too-easy prejudice against consumption can be economically justified — as restraining savings and, with it, investment — this hasn't been the case for...

theweek.com/articles/97295…
2/4

decades. Since the 1980s, more consumption in advanced economies hasn't restrained investment. It actually drives investment, in a self-reinforcing process in which more consumption leads to more investment and more investment leads to both more consumption and more savings.
3/4

But while much of the recent increase in consumption has been driven by rising household debt (which just means poorer people borrowing from the rich), what drives sustainable growth in consumption is rising wages/transfers at the middle and bottom of the income scale.
Read 4 tweets
23 Mar
1/5

Very interesting. When things seemed to be going well for the economy, these private-sector lenders were considered important to the functioning of China's economy because they were key to unlocking the innovative potential of private-sector...

scmp.com/news/china/pol…
2/5

businesses by providing the credit that the formal banking system couldn't or wouldn't. But when the economy is in trouble, perceptions about their role change, and they are accused of being predators engaged in debt entrapment.
3/5

Analysts are right to worry about this kind of policy inconsistency, as they do in this article, but I would also make two larger points. First, this is pretty typical of an institutionally rigid system that finds adjustment difficult. What might at first seem like the...
Read 5 tweets
19 Mar
1/7

The good news is that regulators continue to warn urgently about financial risks facing China. On Tuesday, according to Caixin, Liu Guiping, PBoC deputy governor, wrote in a PBoC publication that "Financial risks have been piling up in...

caixinglobal.com/2021-03-18/pbo…
2/7

China for a long time, creating a grim challenge to financial stability, adding that there are still vulnerabilities in the system. Current regulations regarding risks are scattered among separate laws, loaded down with abstract principles, and implemented...
3/7

by different government departments, Liu said. He called for setting up 'capital pools' to deal with risks, improving the 'loss-sharing mechanism,' and breaking the implicit guaranteed payment."
Read 7 tweets
18 Mar
1/4

I rarely read pieces that too-eagerly disparage "pundits", and this doesn't disappoint. The author argues that because exports often don't vary inversely with currencies, this proves that the exchange rate doesn't matter much to the balance of trade.

caixinglobal.com/2021-03-16/fis…
2/4

Nonsense. The exchange rate matters a great deal, but it is not the only thing that matters. So do interest rates, the distribution of income, implicit or explicit manufacturing subsidies, and a whole range of other supply-side policies. When a stronger currency is...
3/4

accompanied for example by greater manufacturing subsidies or repressed interest rates, the resulting expansionary impact of the latter on the trade balance can easily overcome the contractionary impact of the exchange rate. That is why I have been arguing for nearly...
Read 4 tweets

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