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Will Ferguson

24 Mar, 9 tweets, 5 min read

@JMilesColeman

Lansing had a 4-point swing towards the Dems in 2020, and overall turnout was up nearly 14% from 2016. Biden won 74% of the vote in the city to Clinton's 69% in 2016.
#ElectionTwitter @JMilesColeman

Ethnic minority areas didn't present as clear a pattern as in some other cities. The blackest precinct (southern end of Westside neighborhood) trended Biden, while more mixed (Hmong, Vietnamese and black) trended Trump. The most hispanic precinct trended Trump but by 1 point.

In Flint, Biden matched Clinton's level of support, but the third-party vote of 2016 seems to have largely drifted right, raising Trump's margin by about 3 points to get to...16% of the total vote.😁 Where Trumped 'gained' in some cities, it was mostly because of this.

Voting was quiet as racial as I imagined, though Biden's best precinct (9) was in a black neighborhood on the northwest side of town (F.R.O.G.) where he got 98% of the vote. He and Trump tied around an emptied out neighborhood at Davison/Broadway and 475: They each got 45 votes.

@JMilesColeman

@JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @michigeese_

I'll add my 2016 and swing map for Flint later today.

@FlintExpats

@FlintExpats

#ElectionTwitter

City fixed their shapefile, so here is Lansing showing the 425 Area that is the airport.

Flint surprised me. Despite cratering pop. on the northside overall turnout was up 1%. And the usual racial pattern of Trump doing better with non-white voters was not as strong, though you can still see the correlation. Just huge levels of drop-off on the northside, though.

@SenhorRaposa

Also, cool coincidence but Precinct 30 had a tie both times. 26 votes apiece for Clinton/Trump in 2016 and 25 votes apiece for Biden/Trump in 2020. @SenhorRaposa @JMilesColeman @FlintExpats

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Will Ferguson

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Me right now:

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@davidcrosss as Jerry Wexler is such a chaotic choice, but it works for this version of the story. 😂

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Will Ferguson

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19 Mar

Though very slightly, Michigan's Upper Peninsula did trend toward the Dems last cycle, 56% Trump / 38% Clinton in 2016 to 57% Trump / 40% Biden. Most of the gain is on the back of it's most populous county: Marquette.

BTW, turnout was up 14%, here, which is impressive when you consider that the region is bleeding pop. on net. If the state had interest in economically jolting Marquette awake, things up there wouldn't be quite so bad, politically, from a Dem perspective.

A group including Richard Whitmer - the current governor's father - sought to allow for expanded stem cell research on donated embryos, and got a constitutional amend. on the ballot in 2008. It passed 53% - 47%. Support was strongest in Washtenaw and weakest in Missaukee.

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Will Ferguson

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17 Mar

Like Grand Rapids and Lansing, Kalamazoo was another growing city in which Biden got over 70% of the vote. %'s ranged from 69% in precinct 10 in northeast K'zoo to 95% next door in the far north of The Zoo.

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Will Ferguson

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16 Mar

Michigan voters passed legalization of marijuana for medical use in 2008 with 63% in favor, and 37% against. It ranged from a high or 71% & 69% in Wayne and Washtenaw, respectively, to a low and narrow 50.5% win in Ottawa.

Ten years later, voters passed the Michigan Regulation and Taxation of Marihuana Act of 2018 intiaitive. Support ranged from highs of 68% (Washtenaw) and 65% (Ingham) "Yes", to lows of 60.1% (Ottawa) and 60.2% (Missaukee) "No."

Strange bedfellows. The souped-up emergency manager law passed in 2011 was repealed by voter in Nov 2012. Most support for the law came from the Detroit suburbs and West MI where Snyder was popular. The rest of the state rejected the law and the UP recoiled from it.

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