At the heart of this entire mess is one thing and one thing only:
How do you communicate the scale of the new barriers to trade that are going to be introduced when for political reasons you are obliged to spin it as liberalisation?
/1
How do you communicate the scale of the new barriers to trade that are going to be introduced when for political reasons you are obliged to spin it as liberalisation?
/1
https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1374411793020329987
It's not that the UK Gov didn't realise what was coming.
HMRC, DEFRA and other departments know these 3rd country rules inside out. They've got experts of their own in customs, SPS and everything else.
/2
HMRC, DEFRA and other departments know these 3rd country rules inside out. They've got experts of their own in customs, SPS and everything else.
/2
These Departments were well aware of requirements such as RoOs or health certificates.
But for some reason, whether it was lack of communication, deliberate decision or something else, that knowledge did not translate into a clear message from the UK Gov.
/3
But for some reason, whether it was lack of communication, deliberate decision or something else, that knowledge did not translate into a clear message from the UK Gov.
/3
On the contrary, we've repeatedly heard senior politicians say things that made trade expert's skin crawl.
Promises that were obviously impossible to fulfil.
/4
Promises that were obviously impossible to fulfil.
/4
Now, I don't know what the relationship between Departments such as HMRC/DEFRA and no 10 was like but it's clear that information was available.
But there was another side to this - the need to "get Brexit done", to deliver. And that should not be underestimated.
/5
But there was another side to this - the need to "get Brexit done", to deliver. And that should not be underestimated.
/5
Delivering Brexit required momentum and spin (which is an inherent part of politics).
In a way I can understand why the Gov didn't feel like it was the right time for all the necessary caveats:
/6
In a way I can understand why the Gov didn't feel like it was the right time for all the necessary caveats:
/6
"We will have a tariff and quota-free deal"*
*But you'll have to jump through hoops to use it. You should see the amount of extra paperwork you'll need for any agri products. And don't even get us started on the Irish Sea border cause that one will blow your mind.
/7
*But you'll have to jump through hoops to use it. You should see the amount of extra paperwork you'll need for any agri products. And don't even get us started on the Irish Sea border cause that one will blow your mind.
/7
And yet, while understandable, this approach was incredibly short-sighted.
It was always going to lead to exactly where we are now: disappointment. Mismanaged expectations.
A dissonance between what has been promised and reality.
/8
It was always going to lead to exactly where we are now: disappointment. Mismanaged expectations.
A dissonance between what has been promised and reality.
/8
Brexit needed to be sold as a liberalisation of UK trade from the EU regulation, opening to the world and an opportunity to turbo-charge trade with other partners.
With the hope that the mountain of new red tape with our closest trading partner will go unnoticed, I guess
/9
With the hope that the mountain of new red tape with our closest trading partner will go unnoticed, I guess
/9
But the reality is that even if there are tangible benefits to be had, they will take time to materialise. While the cost of red tape is here today.
And I'd say that gap is how Brexit will end up being perceived.
/10
And I'd say that gap is how Brexit will end up being perceived.
/10
By the time we join the CPTPP or sign a deal with the US businesses in the UK will know exactly how much the "tariff-free quota-free" deal with no new non-tariff barriers has cost them.
/end
/end
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