Update to various Covid-19 indicators for England.
Another big drop in deaths, hospitalisations down too.
Positive tests down & good to see no further rise in school age: data to 19 Mar, last day of in-school testing.
Zoe has been up & down: down a bit today (data to 20 Mar).
Positive tests for school ages by specimen date will be even harder to interpret over next few days due to start of at home mass LFD testing on Sun 21 March. This is meant to be followed up by a confirmatory PCR test so bear in mind ...
... an LFD positive followed by a PCR positive will only count as 1 new positive but:
1. The case will be allocated to the LFD specimen date but when the PCR test is in, that will be deleted & the case added to the PCR specimen date ...
2. An LFD positive followed by a PCR negative (so probably a false positive), will stay in the data as a positive case, allocated to the LFD specimen date.
You might think that isn't sensible, but please don't blame the PHE Dashboard team - they don't make the rules.
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Lots to enjoy in this thread about the end of the Texas mask mandate on 10 March. See also @ianmSC 's other thread on Mississippi which removed the mask mandate earlier on 3 March.
What stands out is how it is a matter of blind faith for so many commentators, including leading health experts, that these sort of restrictions must be effective. Evidence and data just have no impact on them.
In the UK, getting rid of the mask mandate should be first on the list for the road map, not relegated to a "review" in June. The risk of any impact on infection rates is very low, whilst the benefits would be very high ...
Yes, disgraceful for the PM to signal support for such unjust discrimination. However, if it is genuinely up to the business, I suspect the free market will soon consign the suggestion to the dustbin ...
... Given the costs of checking & risk of legal challenges on grounds of discrimination, the only reason a pub would deliberately turn unvaccinated away is if there is really big demand from the public for vaccinated-only pubs ...
... people may well say they like the idea in response to an opinion poll but I would be surprised if there was much demand in practice. ...
Update to various Covid-19 indicators for England:
• Another big drop in deaths.
• No further rise in Triage whilst Zoe down again.
• Positive tests down (just) overall, no change in school ages
A few other points to note …
1. Daily admissions drops back to 72 for Midlands (16 Mar), making me more suspicious that the leap to 116 on the 15th may have been a data problem.
2. 7-day ave for positive tests goes up to last Sat. Not a “school mass testing” day so not surprising no further increase ...
3. I've switched back to reporting 4-19 for school ages (rather than 10-19) as testing has also ramped up in primaries (though not as much as secondaries).
In any case, 4-19 more relevant going forward in seeing any impact of school opening itself (rather than mass testing) ...
Although cases have plummeted worldwide since Christmas, most countries in Europe have started to see increases (small so far) in past couple of weeks.
This is true in places with few restrictions (Sweden/Finland) as well as those with strict lockdowns (Denmark/Belgium/Austria).
Czechia is a good example: more or less in lockdown since mid-October though with quite a few specific tightening & relaxations at different times.
Restrictions ramped up even more on 30 Jan, yet cases are rising faster than in most countries. Here is the comparison with Sweden.
Not all countries have seen an increase, e.g.:
Portugal (lockdown) & Spain (no lockdown, varying regional restrictions): still seeing decreases.
Italy (restrictions but no lockdown & some recent relaxing) & France (significant restrictions, no lockdown): fairly stable for now.
1. When there is a surge in infections, cases eventually come down whether or not there is a lockdown/significant restrictions. 2. Lockdowns/many restrictions have little (not necessarily no) impact on hospitalisations & deaths.
Some find this hard to accept, as it seems so obvious:
Transmission comes from contact, restrictions reduce contact, so surely restrictions must reduce transmission & hence admissions & deaths?
But there are lots of reasons why restrictions may have less benefit than expected:
1. People change their behaviour voluntarily in response to changes in infections.
You choose to take less risk when infections surge, more risk when infections low, but just as importantly ...