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24 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The EU's own Environment Agency says at the present decadal growth rate of 3.0 ppm per year, peak global greenhouse gas concentrations for limiting the increase of global average temperature to 1.5°C will be exceeded around 2021, and, for 2°C, around 2034.
eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/…
'It is important to consider all gases and other forcing agents using the so-called ‘CO2 equivalent’ (CO2e); that is an equivalent amount to the concentration of CO2 that would cause the same amount of radiative forcing as a mixture of CO2 & other forcing agents (ghgs & aerosols)
'global greenhouse gas concentrations must not exceed 465 (range 445-485) ppm and should have returned to 411 (390-430) ppm by 2100 to limit the increase to 1.5 °C; for the 2 °C limit, the corresponding values are 505 (470-540) and 480 (460-500) ppm, respectively.'
'Considering all greenhouse gases and other forcing agents (including aerosols), total CO2e reached 457 ppm in 2018, which is an increase of nearly 4 ppm from 2017, and is 30 ppm more than in 2008 (Figure 1).'

eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/…

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More from @ClimateBen

Ben See Profile picture
23 Mar
The absolute wall-to-wall coverage of the major UN report saying the entire human food system is today in jeopardy due to ecological and climate disasters demonstrates how right we all are to place our absolute trust in state-corporate media.
'At no other point in history has agriculture been faced with such an array of familiar and unfamiliar risks...

disasters... are upending people’s lives, devastating livelihoods, and jeopardizing our entire food system'.

fao.org/documents/card…
We're heading for the global catastrophe of +450 ppm of CO2 by the 2030s in the context of destructive economic growth & industrial agriculture in a world of nuclear weapons.

We can and must force emergency political-economic-system-change action now.

news.un.org/en/story/2021/…
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
21 Mar
CO₂

1. We're at 417ppm
J. Hansen: that's 3.5°C eventually

2. We face 427ppm by 2025
That's like climates +3M yrs ago

3. Corporate plans: +450ppm by 2036
Many scientists: worst impacts likely

4. Trajectory: 550ppm by 2047
Unsurvivable 5°C sooner or later?

5. We can still act
'Exactly when..feedbacks seriously kick in is the rub..somewhere between 400 and 500 ppm seems most likely

world’s top climate scientists, now believe 450 ppm is the upper bound

450 needs a World War II-scale effort starting in the next decade

From 2008:grist.org/article/partin…
'the eventual warming for 407ppm CO2 will be about 3.5°C'

~James Hansen (who hasn't given up)

3.5°C is horrific, hard to survive. We must suck carbon from the atmosphere, but forests are losing their ability to do this. Industrial methods seem unfeasible.monthlyreview.org/2019/02/01/mr-…
Read 11 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
20 Mar
Did you know?

1. many scientists say CO2 concentration levels must be stabilized at 450 ppm to avoid the worst impacts of climate change

2. we're now at 417 ppm

3. governments & corporations plan on keeping emissions so high this decade that we can expect to add 33 ppm by 2033
'Many scientists argue that the CO2 concentration must be stabilized at 450 ppm to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Some activists argue for a more ambitious goal of 350 ppm'

The phrase 'worst impacts' sounds suspiciously euphemistic.

From 2013:nationalgeographic.com/pages/article/…
'Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration will soar past a scary threshold this year, exceeding 417 parts per million (ppm) — a 50% increase since the start of widespread industrial activity in the 18th century.'

'runaway acceleration'?!? Can't say that!livescience.com/co2-concentrat…
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
17 Mar
We're heading for 427 ppm by 2025.

Research shows warming soils and plants may well contribute as much as 66 ppm within decades.

What is the worst case scenario for humanity if we do hit +550 ppm by the 2070s?
It is thought that 100s of billions of tonnes of CO2 from soils and plants will be released at 2C.
⬇️
independent.co.uk/climate-change…

I tried to find out more about the 66 ppm figure from this 2015 research last year:
⬇️
'Last time CO2 was at similar level temperatures were 3C to 4C hotter'.

dumptheguardian.com/environment/20…
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
16 Mar
Remember:

1. Carbon dioxide was below 400 parts per million for the last 15 million years

2. CO2 levels are now 418 ppm and rising fast

3. Some scientists say we’ll probably hit +550 ppm which may well mean unsurvivable levels of warming

4. We can still take emergency action
We need to move away from today's economic growth paradigm according to the IPBES. This is an ecological crisis due to capitalism, which is tied to ongoing imperialism and colonialism. Immediate emergency political-and-economic-system-change action needed.
mashable.com/article/climat…
'If the build-up of CO₂ continues at current rates, by 2080 it will have passed 560 ppm – more than double the level of pre-industrial times.'

if CO₂ reaches and stays at that level there is 'up to an 18% chance that temperatures will rise to 4.5°C'.
theconversation.com/just-how-sensi…
Read 5 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
11 Mar
Before I delete this, please note:

1. I'm deleting because I want to, it's my shitty, flawed, eye-catching tweet, and nobody influenced me on this

2. 'BREAKING' is an ironic comment on media silence - the interesting/explosive NASA blog with @ClimateOfGavin is 6 months old!
3. 'Joe Biden's new NASA chief climate change adviser' is a dig at journalist-speak - 'chief'? hackneyed rubbish!

4. Surely we *should* now be prepared (materially, psychologically) for the possibility/likelihood of approaching or just over 3C? my mistake?!
5. There is every reason to think 2.3C will not protect biodiversity meaning billions will be at risk - if @ClimateOfGavin really isn't clearly prompting people to think that, it may mean they've not been informed about the ecological crisis by media, schools, governments, etc
Read 6 tweets

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