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Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
@jukka235
Mar 25, 2021 • 10 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Ministeri Jussi Saramo julkaisi eilen 24.3. kolmannen version siitä, millä tavalla tartuntoja pitäisi analysoida kun puhutaan joululomien vaikutuksesta tartuntoihin. Johtopäätös on kuitenkin pysynyt koko ajan samana.
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Vaiheessa 1 ministeri käytti 14 päivän ilmaantuvuutta + 5 päivän itämisaikaa johtopäätöksien tekemiseen siitä, millä tavalla joululomat vaikuttivat tartuntoihin. (Se on hyvä menetelmä.)
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Tässä vaihe 1 kuvana. Tämä vaihe oli voimassa 20.3.2021 saakka.
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Sen jälkeen (21.3.2021) osoitin ministerin väittämän vääräksi (käyttäen 14 päivän ilmaantuvuutta + 5 päivän itämisaikaa).
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#FactCheck

Vähän tämän jälkeen (21.3.2021) ministeri siirtyi käyttämään päiväkohtaisia lukuja.
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Tässä vaihe 2 kuvana. Tämä vaihe oli voimassa 21.3.-24.3.
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Tässä kuva, jota ministeri käytti 2. vaiheessa (21.-24.3.)

- 14 päivän ilmaantuvuuden + 5 päivän itämisajasta siirryttiin käyttämään päiväkohtaista dataa
- samalla siirryttiin tekemällä johtopäätös katsomalla kuvaa.
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Se tapa, miten ministeri vetää johtopäätöksiä muuttui toiseen kertaan 24. maaliskuuta. Tässä versiossa johtopäätökset joululomien vaikutuksesta tartuntoihin saadaan katsomalla jompaa kumpaa kuvaa. (Johtopäätös ei kuitenkaan muuttunut.)
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Tässä kolmannessa vaiheessa (24.3. lähtien)
- johtopäätös saadaan katsomalla kuvaa (eikä laskemalla)
- voidaan käyttää joko päiväkohtaista dataa tai 14 päivän ilmaantuvuutta
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#Factcheck



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Tässä yhteenveto siitä, miten ministeri Saramon tapa analysoida koulujen joululomien vaikutusta Suomen koronavirustartuntoihin on tähän mennessä kehittynyt.
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More from @jukka235

Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Mar 9
In Sweden, 10% of healthy life years have been lost since the pandemic began.

That’s one out of every ten years gone.
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Here is the post.
2/x
The Swedish model: effectively, Sweden turned the entire adult population into smokers.
3/x
chatgpt.com/share/69af3267…Image
Read 11 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Feb 26
25-29 year olds: cancer and neoplasm related deaths in Sweden (C00-D48).
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During 2020-2024, among 25-29 year olds, the share of cancers showing growth in 2023-2024 increased from a historical baseline of 22% of all cancers (1997-2019 average) to 61% in 2024.
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This is the same chart in terms of absolute numbers. Among 25-29 year olds, the total number of cancer related deaths bottomed out in 2021.
For the causes showing growth (in red),
- 2020-2024 average is 2.2 times as high as the 1997-2019 baseline
- 2023-2024 average is 3.1 times as high as the 1997-2019 baseline
3/xImage
Read 9 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Feb 25
Cancer and neoplasm related deaths in Sweden (C00-D48).
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Among 30-34 year olds, cancer and neoplasm related causes of death have been growing at an average rate of 32.5% per year since 2021 (equivalent to a 10-fold increase in 8.2 years if current growth continues).
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Cancer related deaths accounted for 16.8% of all deaths among 30-34 year olds in 2024. If they continue to grow at the rate of 32.5%, they alone could be sufficient to double total mortality in this age group within 4 years, and increase it 10-fold within a further 8 years.
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Read 8 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Feb 22
Finland's epidemic 22 Feb 2026: the amount of virus detected in wastewater is now 60% higher than during the first Omicron wave in 2022. The post-Omicron baseline appears permanently higher compared with the pre-Omicron period; repeated waves show no sign of diminishing.
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Post-Omicron baseline is permanently higher than pre-Omicron:
- before late 2021, levels were mostly 10³–10⁴.
- from 2022 onward, even troughs sit around 10⁵, or 10-100x higher than before Omicron: a sign of constant background transmission
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The first Omicron wave in January 2022 was the first major structural break.
- this wave was an order of magnitude jump compared to the pre-Omicron period (2020-2021)
- the first Omicron wave fundamentally shifted the baseline 10 to 100 times upward
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Read 12 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Feb 20
Index / January 2026.
Part 1: fastest growing disease groups in Finland (7 Jan 2026)
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Renal failures in Finland (8 Jan 2026)
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Developmental delays and disorders (F80-F89) (9 Jan 2026)
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Read 4 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Feb 19
This is one beautiful chart.

Between 1997 and 2019, mortality across age groups declined by up to 48 percent. Large amounts of additional life were delivered. Courtesy of the Swedish health system.
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Between 2019 and 2024, the Swedish health system took a step back. It would appear that school aged children were sacrificed for the greater good.
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As a result, the post-2019 years have seen increasing levels for disease-related mortality for the younger age groups. For 5-9 and 10-14 year olds, mortality is now 66% and 38% higher than in 2019, respectively. 2024 was the worst for both of these age groups.
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Read 4 tweets

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