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Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
@jukka235
Mar 25, 2021 • 10 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Ministeri Jussi Saramo julkaisi eilen 24.3. kolmannen version siitä, millä tavalla tartuntoja pitäisi analysoida kun puhutaan joululomien vaikutuksesta tartuntoihin. Johtopäätös on kuitenkin pysynyt koko ajan samana.
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Vaiheessa 1 ministeri käytti 14 päivän ilmaantuvuutta + 5 päivän itämisaikaa johtopäätöksien tekemiseen siitä, millä tavalla joululomat vaikuttivat tartuntoihin. (Se on hyvä menetelmä.)
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#FactCheck



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Tässä vaihe 1 kuvana. Tämä vaihe oli voimassa 20.3.2021 saakka.
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Sen jälkeen (21.3.2021) osoitin ministerin väittämän vääräksi (käyttäen 14 päivän ilmaantuvuutta + 5 päivän itämisaikaa).
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#FactCheck

Vähän tämän jälkeen (21.3.2021) ministeri siirtyi käyttämään päiväkohtaisia lukuja.
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#FactCheck



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Tässä vaihe 2 kuvana. Tämä vaihe oli voimassa 21.3.-24.3.
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Tässä kuva, jota ministeri käytti 2. vaiheessa (21.-24.3.)

- 14 päivän ilmaantuvuuden + 5 päivän itämisajasta siirryttiin käyttämään päiväkohtaista dataa
- samalla siirryttiin tekemällä johtopäätös katsomalla kuvaa.
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Se tapa, miten ministeri vetää johtopäätöksiä muuttui toiseen kertaan 24. maaliskuuta. Tässä versiossa johtopäätökset joululomien vaikutuksesta tartuntoihin saadaan katsomalla jompaa kumpaa kuvaa. (Johtopäätös ei kuitenkaan muuttunut.)
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Tässä kolmannessa vaiheessa (24.3. lähtien)
- johtopäätös saadaan katsomalla kuvaa (eikä laskemalla)
- voidaan käyttää joko päiväkohtaista dataa tai 14 päivän ilmaantuvuutta
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#Factcheck



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Tässä yhteenveto siitä, miten ministeri Saramon tapa analysoida koulujen joululomien vaikutusta Suomen koronavirustartuntoihin on tähän mennessä kehittynyt.
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More from @jukka235

Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Feb 13
Mortality in Sweden: Are the causes of death that are increasing among 0-4, 5-9 and 10-14 year olds also rising in older age groups?

Let's find out.
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These causes collectively represent all causes of death that are rising among 0-4, 5-9 and 10-14 year olds. Among 0-4 year olds, their average growth rate (2019-2024) is 13.5%.
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Among 5-9 year olds the average annual growth rate (2019-2024) is 33.8 percent (10-fold in 7.9 years if this growth rate continues).
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Read 19 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Feb 9
Mortality of children aged 0-4 in Sweden.
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Among 0-4 year olds, the 19 causes of death with the highest growth (2004 compared with the 1997-2019 average) have increased since 2019 at an average rate of 51% per year.
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Among 0-4 year olds, adding the next 18 causes brings the total to the top 37 fastest growing causes of death. Together, these have increased since 2019 at an average rate of 24.6% per year, compared with just 0.6% per year during 1997-2019.
3/x Image
Read 6 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Feb 8
Mortality of 10-14 year olds in Sweden.
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Here are the 19 leading causes of death among 10-14 year olds, ranked by their 2024 incidence compared to the 1997-2019 average. Together, they account for 35% of all deaths in 2024.
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Here are the next 18 diseases. Combined, these causes represent 60% of all deaths in 2024, and have an average growth rate of 33.7% per year between 2019 and 2024 (10 times in 7.9 years).
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Read 8 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Jan 15
Diseases of the nervous system (G00-G99).
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Between 2020 and 2025e, patient growth is nearly uniform across all age groups above one year of age. However, growth among those aged 1-64 clearly exceeds that observed in older age groups.
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Situation by disease group (nervous system diseases G00-G99):
- fastest growth (2020–2025e): Other disorders of the nervous system (G90–G99), 15.9% average annual growth
- fastest growth (2024-2025e): Inflammatory diseases of the central nervous system (G00–G09), 19.7%
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Read 14 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Jan 14
This is an important moment.

After more than five years of silence, mainstream media has begun to acknowledge that C19 can harm T cells, and to discuss the consequences that follow. @fitterhappierAJ was one of the first, if not the first, to talk about this.
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Dr. Leonardi has provided a significant amount of direction for me. In particular, he has been interviewed in some excellent articles that have withstood the test of time. Here is one of them.
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thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/…
We have seen it all.
- in 2020, they said that our health systems are so robust that this disease wouldn't come here
- then they wanted them infected. C19 was de facto allowed to spread in schools. Only a small fraction of <12 year olds received ...
3/x
koronatilastot.fi/fi/rokotukset/Image
Read 8 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Jan 9
Something is causing injuries among young children.
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Something changed in 2022. Before that, the numbers were generally falling. Wonder what it could be.
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After 2022, 1-6 year olds have overtaken a total of three other age groups (50-64, 15-24 and 65-74 year olds), and are now clearly above the total population average. All injuries (S00-S99).
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Read 6 tweets

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