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Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
@jukka235
Mar 25, 2021 • 10 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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Ministeri Jussi Saramo julkaisi eilen 24.3. kolmannen version siitä, millä tavalla tartuntoja pitäisi analysoida kun puhutaan joululomien vaikutuksesta tartuntoihin. Johtopäätös on kuitenkin pysynyt koko ajan samana.
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Vaiheessa 1 ministeri käytti 14 päivän ilmaantuvuutta + 5 päivän itämisaikaa johtopäätöksien tekemiseen siitä, millä tavalla joululomat vaikuttivat tartuntoihin. (Se on hyvä menetelmä.)
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Tässä vaihe 1 kuvana. Tämä vaihe oli voimassa 20.3.2021 saakka.
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Sen jälkeen (21.3.2021) osoitin ministerin väittämän vääräksi (käyttäen 14 päivän ilmaantuvuutta + 5 päivän itämisaikaa).
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#FactCheck

Vähän tämän jälkeen (21.3.2021) ministeri siirtyi käyttämään päiväkohtaisia lukuja.
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Tässä vaihe 2 kuvana. Tämä vaihe oli voimassa 21.3.-24.3.
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Tässä kuva, jota ministeri käytti 2. vaiheessa (21.-24.3.)

- 14 päivän ilmaantuvuuden + 5 päivän itämisajasta siirryttiin käyttämään päiväkohtaista dataa
- samalla siirryttiin tekemällä johtopäätös katsomalla kuvaa.
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Se tapa, miten ministeri vetää johtopäätöksiä muuttui toiseen kertaan 24. maaliskuuta. Tässä versiossa johtopäätökset joululomien vaikutuksesta tartuntoihin saadaan katsomalla jompaa kumpaa kuvaa. (Johtopäätös ei kuitenkaan muuttunut.)
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Tässä kolmannessa vaiheessa (24.3. lähtien)
- johtopäätös saadaan katsomalla kuvaa (eikä laskemalla)
- voidaan käyttää joko päiväkohtaista dataa tai 14 päivän ilmaantuvuutta
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Tässä yhteenveto siitä, miten ministeri Saramon tapa analysoida koulujen joululomien vaikutusta Suomen koronavirustartuntoihin on tähän mennessä kehittynyt.
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More from @jukka235

Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Feb 8
Mortality of 10-14 year olds in Sweden.
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Here are the 19 leading causes of death among 10-14 year olds, ranked by their 2024 incidence compared to the 1997-2019 average. Together, they account for 35% of all deaths in 2024.
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Here are the next 18 diseases. Combined, these causes represent 60% of all deaths in 2024, and have an average growth rate of 33.7% per year between 2019 and 2024 (10 times in 7.9 years).
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Read 8 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Jan 14
This is an important moment.

After more than five years of silence, mainstream media has begun to acknowledge that C19 can harm T cells, and to discuss the consequences that follow. @fitterhappierAJ was one of the first, if not the first, to talk about this.
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Dr. Leonardi has provided a significant amount of direction for me. In particular, he has been interviewed in some excellent articles that have withstood the test of time. Here is one of them.
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thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/…
We have seen it all.
- in 2020, they said that our health systems are so robust that this disease wouldn't come here
- then they wanted them infected. C19 was de facto allowed to spread in schools. Only a small fraction of <12 year olds received ...
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koronatilastot.fi/fi/rokotukset/Image
Read 8 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Jan 9
Something is causing injuries among young children.
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Something changed in 2022. Before that, the numbers were generally falling. Wonder what it could be.
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After 2022, 1-6 year olds have overtaken a total of three other age groups (50-64, 15-24 and 65-74 year olds), and are now clearly above the total population average. All injuries (S00-S99).
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Read 6 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Jan 9
Developmental delays and disorders (F80-F89).
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Between 2020 and 2025e, the number of patients with developmental delay or disorder diagnoses grew at an average annual rate of 21.6% (10x in 11.8 years). The fastest patient growth was seen in pervasive developmental disorders, incl. autism and Asperger syndrome (F84).
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Among total population, number of patients with developmental delay or disorder diagnoses is up 2.6 times since 2020. All disorders are showing continued significant patient growth.
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Read 11 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Dec 23, 2025
Finland's epidemic 23 Dec 2025: amount of virus in wastewater appears to have risen above the first Omicron wave. Post-Omicron baseline is permanently higher than pre-Omicron; repeated waves are showing no diminishing.
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Post-Omicron baseline is permanently higher than pre-Omicron
- before late 2021, levels were mostly 10³–10⁴.
- from 2022 onward, even troughs sit around 10⁵, or 10-100x higher
- C19 has become endemic
- constant background transmission, even outside waves
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Repeated large waves in 2023–2024, not diminishing. Notable peaks:
- Apr 2023
- Nov 2023 (highest for the entire pandemic)
- Dec 2024

These peaks are:
- comparable to or higher than Omicron 2022
- evidence against a simple “each wave gets smaller” narrative
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Read 21 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Nov 30, 2025
Congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities. For 1-6 year olds,
- the condition showing largest increase since 2022 is Down's syndrome (Q90)
- the condition showing fastest growth since 2022 is Congenital malformations of great arteries (Q25)
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1-6 year olds / chromosomal abnormalities (Q90-Q99).
- Down's syndrome (Q90): average patient growth (2022-2025e) 14% per year = 10x in 18 years)
- fastest growing condition: other sex chromosome abnormalities, male phenotype (Q98), up 150% in 2025e
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<1 year olds / chromosomal abnormalities (Q90-Q99):
- Down's syndrome (Q90) is the most frequent diagnosis
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Read 9 tweets

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