@realmoney
The Unfortunate Aftermath of Speculation
* Novice traders will likely now flee the markets
For months I have argued (with fellow contributors and with the Twitter community) that the wanton speculation in worthless gewgaws would have profoundly negative consequences
for the markets.
I argued that the rapidly rising supply (of SPACs et al) would overcome demand (which would be soon sated).
I opined that many (especially of a retail-kind) would lose alot of money (while only a few traders will retain their trading profits).
But, most importantly, as a consequence of the senseless/obscene speculative wave, we will once again (as we did in late 2007 and in early 2000) lose legions of new investors who thought trading was a "game" that involved simply buying stocks based solely that their charts
embodied stock prices that moved from the lower left to the upper right.
And that is the most unfortunate aftermath of the speculation of 2020-1.
It is also unfortunate that many sober (and previously thoughtful market commentators on Fin TV and elsewhere) knowingly endorsed
and encouraged the likes of David Portnoy and the Robinhood crowd.
They should have learned from history.
They should have known better. @stoolpresidente @jimcramer @tomkeene @ferrotv @riskreversal @ScottWapnerCNBC @convertbond @lizclaman @davidfaber @guyadami @joeterranova

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More from @DougKass

26 Mar
Keys to a Life Well-Lived, From Rabbi Zion
As we approach the Jewish holiday I wanted to take this opportunity to reposte the original Rabbi Zion @realmoney article from five years ago:
"Yesterday I received a note from Dr. Martin Zion, Chuck's dad. Rabbi and his wife Jane have
been my proxy parents for years; as the anniversaries of their son's death at the World Trade center accumulated, my family has grown ever closer to this remarkably brave couple
I am sure (and I hope) that many of you have a Rabbi Zion in your life.
I tearfully read and digested
Rabbi Zion's words several times on Tuesday as I found them to be moving in message.
As I start my Diary this morning on the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur, I wanted to share the thoughts from this most iconic figure in the Jewish community with all of you:
"It is a significant
Read 14 tweets
26 Mar
@realmoney Mar 25, 2021 | 09:55 AM EDT DOUG KASS
The Unfortunate Aftermath of Speculation
* Novice traders will likely now flee the markets

For months I have argued - with fellow contributors and with the Twitter community - that the wanton speculation in worthless gewgaws
would have profoundly negative consequences for the markets.

I argued that the rapidly rising supply (of SPACs, et al) would overcome demand which would be soon sated.

I opined that many, especially of a retail-kind, would lose a lot of money while only a few traders will
retain their trading profits.

But, most importantly, as a consequence of the senseless/obscene speculative wave, we will once again - as we did in late 2007 and in early 2000 - lose legions of new investors who thought trading was a "game" that involved simply buying stocks
Read 5 tweets
26 Mar
@realmoney
Mar 25, 2021 | 11:00 AM EDT DOUG KASS
My Comment of the Day in Our Comments Section
dougie kass
The reason I hit on the Fin media, Fin TV people should now be obvious:
* They are first level thinkers who only see the last sale, what is front of them.
* They follow
the gewgaws, encouraging others to as well.
* They fail to engage contrary thinkers who are skeptical of the flavors of the month.
* They express no understanding of risk adjusted returns or reward v risk ratios.
* They fail to outline the risks in the speculative portions of the
markets - preferring to air superficial coverage without any deep dives.
* Their focus on leading speculative parts of the market (cannabis, SPACs etc.) fail to recognize that the primrose paths to higher prices inevitably detour - and we end up losing legions of retail
Read 4 tweets
26 Mar
Let's get facts straight H2!
I actually started shorting $VIAC at $71.50 (not $65) and scaled up towards the highs ($101).

Mar 05, 2021 | 09:45 AM EST DOUG KASS
ViacomCBS Short Rental
Taking a short trading rental in ViacomCBS (VIAC) at $71.50 now.

In spec shorts like this I
average up and start small (recognizing the volatility delivered by Redditt types)- but you already know my methodology of "funnelling in" (both longs and short).
I posted on Twitter and @realmoney averaging up....
A week ago I predicted a large secondary offering.
That occurred this week. Check!
Do your homework better and be more accurate. I am happy to accept criticism and take ownership of my mistakes. Something I never see you or many others do on Twitter. With comments like this you lose your credibility.
But $VIAC has been a
Read 4 tweets
25 Mar
Mar 25, 2021 | 08:35 AM EDT DOUG KASS
ARK Invest's 'Vicious Cycle' Comes Into Closer Focus
* I remain negative on the overall market outlook and on the prospects for shares of many speculative tech disruptors
* ARKK may be viewed as a leveraged way to short the markets
* In bull markets, buyers begets buying - such was the case for ARKK in 2020

* But in bear markets, sellers beget selling - such might be the case for ARKK in 2021

* In its extreme, a vicious cycle could result in ARK ETFs having liquidity problems
* An ARKK ETF "flash crash" is not inconceivable if redemptions rise rapidly and if forced sales of increasingly illiquid investment positions occur
Read 5 tweets
24 Mar
Freebie (summary of @realmoney opener)
Mar 24, 2021 | 07:50 AM EDT DOUG KASS
You Done Tore Out My Heart and Stomped That Sucker Flat
"You keep on stompin'

And my heart is on the floor..."

- Lewis Gizzard, You Done Tore Out My Heart and Stomped That Sucker Flat
In yesterday's opening missive, "The Market Is a Hard Dog to Keep Under the Porch," I argued that the U.S. stock market remained materially overpriced and that investors and traders should consider using market rallies to reduce equity exposure and to raise cash:
* Value is stretched now (financial and energy) while growth valuations are vulnerable to higher interest rates.

* The current cash price of the S&P Index exceeds my calculus of "fair market value" by a wide 20%.

* The rapid increase in supply in SPACs poses a market threat.
Read 7 tweets

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