Things I'm tempted to block people for as I get ever further from the perfect number of followers (3000). A thread that I'm afraid will be ongoing:
Block people who reply "no" or "you're wrong" with no further comment.
Block people who reply to a Twitter poll with something that boils down to "why didn't you have a fifth option?"
Block people who reply to a Twitter poll with something that boils down to "your poll results are worthless because you're only surveying people who are on Twitter".
Block people who QT a subtweet with a snitch-tag of the presumed target, especially if that target is a large account with a propensity for beefs and bellicose followers.
Block people who reply with an attack or criticism and then QT when you don't engage with them. I saw it the first time, asshole.
Block people who reply or QT with a comment like "hope you don't get cancelled for this!" or "this will piss off some people!" This is just bringing trouble down on the OP while pretending to be friendly and concerned.
Gentle reminder: we need to talk about how some of you haven't been blocked enough for claiming you can't believe you have to shout your unpopular opinion from the rooftops and it shows, but y'all ain't ready for that conversation. This isn't a good look.
Even if you spelled out several explicit rules for blocking, block some people who broke none of the rules based on vibe to prevent your legibility from being exploited by assholes who go right up to the boundary to see what they can get away with.
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Imagine a classic fantasy setting. Warriors start out formidable but their ceiling is limited. Wizards spend years in a tower or academy just to catch up. But the strongest wizards are much stronger than any warrior, so the strongest wizards rule the land. tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.…
Twist: it turns out that the wizard's magic depends on popular belief in their abilities. If everyone knows a wizard can cast a fireball, it explodes in a blaze. If too many people doubt it, it fizzles out in a puff of smoke. Suddenly, the people begin to doubt the wizards.
As magic begins to weaken, the wizards spend more and more years in the academies with fewer visible results. The more they fail the more people doubt. And so the mightiest wizards on the ruling council devise a strategy: they must eliminate the people's doubt to retain power.
So we mock and shame guys who say they WON'T defend women and now we've also decided to mock and shame guys who say they WILL defend women so... uh... I'm sure this Twitter meme is making women more safe in some complex way my limited guy brain can't comprehend yet.
So if I actually shared some stories of me and my friends stopping "our mates" from harassing girls I'll have a bunch of men telling me I'm a white knight simp and a bunch of women telling me I'm a lying keyboard-warrior hypocrite. So I won't. And my friends won't.
And then everyone wonders why it's not a common norm that men should be responsible for policing their fellows, when any men who says anything at all publicly on the subject get shit from all sides.
I got three smart friends on a call to try and make sense of the $GME situation. This thread is my current best model.
TL;DR: The longs are playing the short game, the shorts are playing the long game.
Who's long GME? Some combination of WSBers, FOMOists, and hedge funds. The WSBers have no fear and will sell at $0.01 or on the moon when the shorts are gone. FOMOists may panic if GME slides but they're probably a small fraction. Funds will try to get on top and may have hedges.
The interesting Q is who's short. Someone who's short for 50% of their bankroll is vulnerable to a squeeze, but at 2% they can hold on forever. Current borrowing fee is 31% APR, or 0.1% a day. It's not that bad. So if the shorts are distributed they can wait it out.
On 12/31 the short interest on GME was 71M shares (out of 69M outstanding 🤷♂️). In January a billion (!) shares of GME have been traded, Melvin and Citron closed their positions, and the short interest is... still 71M.
Does it still count as a short squeeze if the original shorts got squeezed out but then millions of new short-sellers ran in to take their place on the battlefront? Has this ever happened?
This is not about two small funds caught in a trap anymore, it's an all-out war of attrition with $20B staked on either side. My guess is that most of it is institution $, WSB being a small part of the longs. When the line breaks, the big boys will dump faster that the Redditors.
I expect a strong resistance line for $GME at $420.69, there's no way every WSB-tard didn't put a sell order there so they could post a screenshot 😂🤣
Another fun thing is that as $GME's price 𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗱𝗿𝘂𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗱, cheap out of the money puts two weeks from now (which yours truly may have dabbled in) became 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 expensive. The market says that the higher it soars the faster it will fall.
Yep. If you have a giant short you need to set an alert for your target being mentioned on Reddit that would automatically trigger buying enough far-out call options to protect you. If Melvin was too slow or greedy to do this they deserve what happened.
Rationality sets the stage by centering the map-territory distinction. You don't have to believe in miracles out in intersubjective reality to have crazy things in your map. But Rationality preaches incremental, Bayesian updates with every piece of data. Our minds can't do that.
PP says that we change our minds like Kuhn's theory of science. Errors of prediction accumulate until a great paradigm shift changes the top models all at once. It happens even at small scales, with basic perception: putanumonit.com/2021/01/23/con…