The filibuster is a relatively recent and arbitrary norm. I don't feel strongly about it.

But I find it strange that the same people who are convinced the Senate is structurally biased against them are also convinced abolishing the filibuster will help them realize their goals.
I get how abolishing the filibuster helps Democrats over the next two years.But will they really derive a partisan advantage from it over a twenty or forty year period?

That question seems to me to be incredibly hard to answer - and everyone is pretending that it's obvious.
Most answers assume the main battlegrounds will be economic and about adding legislation.

It is not at all obvious that either of these assumptions will hold true in the coming decades. Republicans could repeal existing entitlements and pass new laws on e.g. affirmative action.
Part of my skepticism stems from smart politicians very often getting the partisan impact of structural reforms wrong.

In 2005, Silvio Berlusconi changed Italy's electoral system in two ways to help himself win.

In 2006 elections, both changes directly helped the opposition.

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More from @Yascha_Mounk

21 Mar
A year ago, two pieces of conventional wisdom about the effects of the pandemic emerged:

* The global economic system would fail
* Governments would ride to the rescue

The truth has turned out to be almost exactly opposite.

My latest @TheAtlantic.

🧵
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Economists claimed Covid would spell "the end of the world economy as we know it."

Just-in time production processes were supposed to break down.

Americans bought toilet paper, filled their bathtubs with water, or stocked up on ammunition.

But the huge disruptions never came.
* Water and electricity never gave out because of the pandemic.

* Global production chains proved surprisingly resilient.

* Generous relief payments led to a *fall* in poverty.

* And scientists invented life-saving vaccines in record speed.

It's an astonishing achievement.
Read 9 tweets
17 Mar
If you read one thing about the terrible situation in Myanmar, make it this.

Also, let me take this opportunity to explain some of the stubborn factors that make it so hard to raise attention for important issues like this coup.
persuasion.community/p/dont-ignore-…
1)

Readers are more interested in issue close to home or that they already have some familiarity with.

Thankfully, Persuasion is funded by subscribers with an ideological investment in these issues, so this doesn't matter much to us.

But even then there's other obstacles.
2)

Myanmar has long been cut off from the world, so editors don't know that much about it.

I have met activists and intellectuals from a large number of countries. I have a sense of who is credible and who isn't. I know who to go to.

On Myanmar, I don't. That makes it harder.
Read 6 tweets
3 Mar
The world is now in the 15th year of the democratic recession.

And 2020 was worse than the previous 14 years.

My latest, about a bitter annual report from @freedomhouse, for @TheAtlantic.

Thread.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
For the past 15 years running, more democracies have moved towards autocracy than vice versa.

In 2020, 73 countries experienced democratic declines.

Only 28 made gains.
Worse, some of the most populous democracies in the world have suffered some of the most precipitous declines.

As of 2020, India has been downgraded to "partly free."

Less 1 in 5 people in the world now live in a free country.
Read 5 tweets
28 Feb
Amazing, wonderful, amazing news:

Building on the success of RNA-vaccines in the fight against Covid, scientists are now developing promising RNA-vaccines against malaria.

If they pan out, the current pandemic could, bizarrely, end up saving lives.

academictimes.com/first-vaccine-…
It should also make us ask very hard questions about why it took a giant pandemic hitting the developed world for us to give a new technology that could potentially save humanity from one of its worst endemic diseases a try...
Also, there are obviously still a lot of obstacles here. I do not in any way mean to suggest that this vaccine is a done deal.

But, oh man, would it be wonderful news for humanity.
Read 4 tweets
17 Feb
At the turn of the year, most commentators expected the current wave of the coronavirus to keep growing. Instead new cases have plummeted over the past six weeks.

Why? No one really knows.

A year into this, we remain strikingly bad at forecasting the trajectory of the pandemic.
There are lots of other puzzles around the world:

Why is India doing so much better than Europe or the United States?

Why are cases in Europe not falling nearly as quickly as in America?

Why did Manaus in Brazil do extremely well for a while and is now doing extremely badly?
After the fact, we can come up with all kinds of retrospective explanations for these events. I have potential explanations for all of them in my mind.

But the vexing fact remains that most did not think of those explanations beforehand. So we keep being incapable of prediction.
Read 6 tweets
15 Feb
If you spend a lot of time among highly political people, it's tempting to think that, say, ~60% of the country is liberal or progressive, and ~40% moderate or conservative.

The truth is very different:

Conservative: 36%
Moderate: 35%
Liberal: 25%
news.gallup.com/poll/328367/am…
Now, there are some things small groups can push through even though much of the population opposes it.

But I think that a lot of people currently overestimate how much the very small group of true progressives can accomplish against the will of the majority over the long run.
And, no, moderates are not a cohesive political group that are united in their love of Joe Biden or Mitt Romney.

But, no, the vast majority of them aren't secret progressives who love AOC either.
Read 5 tweets

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