1/6

Very good piece by @danielmunevar on the post-Covid-19 dynamics of developing-country debt. It uses Minsky's balance-sheet approach to understand the implications of rising debt among developing countries and the systemic impact on...

eurodad.org/2020_debt_cris…
2/6

the borrowers themselves. It also discusses the adverse systemic implications for the advanced economies.

The world "systemic" is key here. It is useless to treat the question of developing-country debt as a series of linear increments that matters mostly to the...
3/6

individual country in distress. Debt repayments always affect a country's balance of payments, which in turn must be absorbed by the rest of the world. One of the important points that Munevar makes is that while debt forbearance has a charity component, it turns out to...
4/6

be a very self-interested piece of charity. It benefits creditor economies as much as it benefits the obligors, and in ways that are not especially hard to understand.

As I pointed out in an earlier tweet, we used to know this. As Marriner Eccles (FDR's fed Chairman)...
5/6

pointed out in his brilliant 1933 Senate Hearings: "We must choose either between accepting sufficient foreign goods to pay the foreign debts owing to this country, or cancel the debts. This is not a moral problem, but a mathematical one."

fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/mel…
6/6

Developing-country debt is quite clearly one of the things my friend Michele @wucker labels a "gray rhino". We know what it is and we pretty much know how it is going to hurt us if we just wait around.

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More from @michaelxpettis

26 Mar
1/8

Most economists don't understand the dynamics of debt in China because they don't think systemically about the economy (obviously I don't mean the guys at @ChinaBeigeBook, who are cited in this article and who understand Chinese debt very well).

cnb.cx/3lSbgxT
2/8

There has been much talk in the past several years about "deleveraging" and debt stabilization in China, but until now there has been neither, even in 2016. It is structurally impossible for China to stabilize the debt burden as long as Beijing insists on GDP growth...
3/8

targets that exceed the real underlying growth of the economy.

This has been the case for well over a decade, but in 2021, as I have argued since last autumn, China will almost certainly seem to "stabilize" its debt burden, but not because anything has fundamentally...
Read 8 tweets
25 Mar
1/7

Caixin: "$60 Billion U.S. Stimulus Windfall Is Heading China’s Way"

They are right, but while this is not a reason not to do the stimulus, Washington should nonetheless be concerned about the extent to which demand will flow abroad — to countries...

caixinglobal.com/2021-03-25/60-…
2/7

like Germany, China and Japan — in a way that partially neutralizes the benefits of the stimulus.

The problem isn't that the stimulus will spur imports. That is perfectly fine, and in a well-functioning global trading system, American imports would boost household income...
3/7

in other countries and, with it, their consumption, which in turn would boost their own imports. Ultimately the rise in US imports would be matched by a rise in US exports, along with a shift in US and global production from less efficient industries to more efficient ones.
Read 7 tweets
25 Mar
1/5

This really shouldn't come as a big surprise to anyone, but while Fernandez de Kirchner is busy alienating creditor governments and the IMF for domestic political reasons, it is important that they do not take the bait. What should matter to...

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/5

foreign creditor governments is what's best for their domestic economies, and every dollar that Argentina spends on its external debt payment is a dollar that must be earned through the trade account, mainly by importing less from abroad — in fact they must earn more...
3/5

than a dollar if higher debt payments encourage capital flight, which will almost certainly be the case.

Argentina's debt restructuring isn't just about Buenos Aires versus its foreign creditors. It is also about American and European creditors versus American and...
Read 5 tweets
24 Mar
1/8

We've long known that local governments have a lot of hidden (and illegal) debt, but what makes this article interesting is that Liu Lei, a senior researcher at a government-linked think tank, said in a public interview that he estimates it to be...

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/8

close to 15% of GDP. In fact unofficial studies suggest it is probably higher, but it is still a striking number.

The timing is interesting. We seem to be getting 2-3 very worried statements a week – and not just in the specialized journals – about debt, financial...
3/8

instability, speculative behavior, and all the balance-sheet problems that should have been, but weren't, at the heart of our economic analysis for over a decade. It now seems to me that the concern among the more sophisticated policy advisors, and the negative...
Read 8 tweets
24 Mar
1/5

In recent days investors seem to have become net sellers of Chinese government bonds. About 2 months ago I wrote that while for the past two years foreign investors had been buying Chinese government bonds mainly for the yield pickup, they seemed...

reut.rs/3cddBQN
2/5

increasingly to be buying because of currency-appreciation expectations.

This, I argued, is a very different type of investor strategy, and would change the dynamics of the market. The former strategy was stabilizing, but the latter was highly self-reinforcing, and so...
3/5

was more likely to lead to volatile ups and downs.

This seems to be what is happening, and perhaps is why Beijing's leading regulators suddenly started warning about the risks of unfettered capital inflows and how they can destabilize China's financial markets.
Read 6 tweets
24 Mar
1/4

It might seem to make obvious sense to have the government play a crucial role in the development of "chokehold technologies", but historical precedents suggest at least two problems which Beijing should try to avoid (and which so far it hasn't).

scmp.com/economy/china-…
2/4

First, politcal (and military) considerations rather than economic ones are usually what drive the process. Second, and allied to the first, the diffuse nature of government involvement and subsidies makes it almost impossible to cost trophy technology and determine...
3/4

whether or not it is economically sustainable. We just assume that once a country has leaped frogged into a much higher level of technology, this will automatically become viable whether or not the social, legal, political and other institutions are in place.
Read 4 tweets

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