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David Henig Profile picture
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26 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
We have to wonder the extent to which China and Hong Kong can now be considered a safe destination for any politician or business from the UK, EU or US. The implications of this for global trade and politics are significant.
Immediate thought - the extent to which removing Chinese two term limits and raising Xi Jinping on to a pedestal may have led to increased arrogance or carelessness - managing to quickly unite UK, EU, and US, against all previous policy.
This indeed. And while global trade cannot immediately exclude China, there's going to be a lot more efforts to move important production away with likely harm to China's attempts to move up the value chain.
If this is the Chinese plan with sanctions it is failing. Because it looks more like a threat from China, and I don't think the UK or EU will take it too well.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
27 Mar
So I am reading that the EU should change their approach to food checks on Great Britain Northern Ireland movements. I get the politics. But those advocating this have to realise it legitimises signing treaties in bad faith, which is quite a step.
The UK government knew in October 2019 of the checks they were committing to on Great Britain Northern Ireland trade. Trade experts told them. The DUP told them. They chose to sign anyway. Claiming otherwise is simply dishonest.
Those who say the government were trapped by the EU over Northern Ireland are also missing the point. That was the reality of 2019 which the government had to handle - the choice of Boris Johnson was to treat Northern Ireland differently.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
26 Mar
An important point is that the loss of trade, work and study opportunities with those countries nearest to the UK is not going to be offset to any significant degree by countries further away - the days of seamless exchange have gone.
That said if someone doesn't soon set up a GB / EU trade clearing house in Northern Ireland soon I'll be tempted to move and do it myself.

(This is also incidentally why any significant weakening of GB-NI checks under the protocol is problematic).
Another thread. Roads to global Britain lead via the EU. Rather inconveniently for the UK government there is a price to the anti-EU yelling and absurdly purist notions of sovereignty.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
25 Mar
To be clear this is the UK choosing a purist definition of sovereignty over trade. And in turn sovereignty of Britain over that of Northern Ireland. It also isn't right as all trade agreements and other treaties involve some element of rule taking.
The UK government policy on non-tariff barriers that we don't want to tackle them if it involves rule taking is so obviously ludicrous in the 21st century that it can't in fact be followed to the letter, but will be stated anyway. Such a bastion of free trade!
Also Brexit friendly 'experts' assured the government that equivalence was the norm in international trade, and the EU approach was wrong. But that's only true for a loose 'equivalence' that doesn't actually remove checks. Removing checks requires greater alignment.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
25 Mar
Yes. The media are absolutely certain they know how vaccines are allocated. A number of sudden experts in contract law are also absolutely certain. Politicians as well.

Tbqh I'd be surprised if even many in the pharma companies themselves know.
Not only that but we do not know and probably never will exactly why the UK got however many weeks ahead of the EU on vaccines. We have some pretty strong clues, but far from the full story. And we shouldn't underestimate the power of it just being more of a UK priority.
In such a complex interconnected world it may just be generally easier and more effective for politicians to pose next to pictures of large flags rather than explain exactly what is happening and how it can be made better.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
24 Mar
One for the optimistic camp on future UK-EU relations (of which I'm part). Geography and a little US oversight are powerful forces.
Ultimately the cost of hostile EU relations is always too high for the UK. The cost of performative strops for media consumption is on the other hand quite low, at least while nobody pays much attention to the failure of those as a negotiating strategy.
Plus the performative strops help disguise the extent to which the UK will from now be a rule taker from the EU. But since 2016 the UK has not once followed through on a strop - we've always chosen deal over no-deal. Which should tell us a lot.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
24 Mar
Certainly we have been short of global political cooperation on vaccines (global science cooperation has been good). But so many issues - which industries when modern trade is complex supply chains? Which countries when US, EU, China, India etc seek various advantages?
Certainly modern trade politics does not support modern trade operations, which sort of flows around WTO, FTAs, global / regional / national regulation and so on. Question (which is part of my research) is what you can do about this.
Global supply chains can already be seen as a competition between what firms can do (locate and produce anywhere, best production at best prices) and the risks of doing so (restrictions, transport costs, changing trade relations etc). ecipe.org/publications/g…
Read 5 tweets

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