Kris Profile picture
26 Mar, 11 tweets, 3 min read
Anecdote...a friend of mine here in the states (but born in Egypt) went back to Egypt and started a trading shop. He is a good dude and really wanted to teach a group of Egyptians to trade. The "fatalism" work ethic eventually caused him to abandon ship after 2 years.
He described constant no-shows, excuses, and frankly people had a hard time connecting the dots to why making money was worthwhile. No sense of urgency.

Nick's use of "fatalism" captured the essence of what my friend reported to me.

I don't see this quality in Egyptians here
I'm not on top of Egyptian politics and I've only been there once. Arabic was my first language (though i lost it by the time I started school. Can understand household arabic and Spanglish it when I speak) and I was surrounded by Egyptians in Brooklyn and NJ growing up.
I actually rejected much of its culture growing up. my mom is a very independent thinker and a bit brash and let's just say she doesn't stay in her place. It had a big impact on me and my sis
I have a lot of issues with the culture and yet I find the people to have a beauty...
that I am drawn to. There is def something that I deeply enjoy in their mannerisms, expression, and warmness that I think is cultural that I have affinity or at least nostalgia for.

Yinh and I contrast my family quite a bit from hers.

My family wears emotions on sleeves...
Perhaps hot blooded, stubborn, but very expressive and openly loving. Big fat Greek wedding kinda crowd. Very extraverted.

Whereas my wife's (vietnamese)fam is more even keeled and reserved but every bit as tight. They are also so much easier to deal with (shhh, don't tell)
Anyway, it occurred to me that Nick's comments about Egypt are the type of comments read by the wrong person would get him egged. There are eggshells everywhere around topics like these but I find the "feeling" of being around different cultures to be real and a gift.
It's a treat to know that immersing yourself in another culture can transport you. It's one of the most interesting things about being the animals we are.

There's probably cultural features that are absolutely good or bad. My mom could never live in Egypt but likes visiting.
Debating these differences sounds like a very bad block of Twitter city that I avoid and I'm not especially educated on topics like that.

I just enjoy feeling the differences in how people talk, touch and communicate in general.
Nick, I just started watching Valentino on Netflix which is like an Egyptian Arrested Development. It is totally transporting me to a different cultural time in my life.

Overbearing matriarch (grandma "teta"), men useless in a particular way, polite insincerity mixed with ♥️
Holy sht this thread gotta outta hand. Don't think I said anything. It's more of an impression piece.

(Now I have the urge to call my cuz to have him rap Biggie in Arabic which always had me dyin as we rode around in his car in NJ)

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More from @KrisAbdelmessih

17 Mar
5 years ago...

Flew into NYC for a 36 hour trip.

I was hopping around the city meeting with bank deriv sales desks. Routine relationship maintenance.

(late to every meeting since I planned poorly and you can't cross 5th ave during St Patty's parade)

Anyway...
That evening I was at dinner as a client. As I went to the bathroom I checked my phone and my family chat was blowing up.

My sister just had a baby.

I hadn't told my east coast fam I was in NYC bc it was a quick biz trip.
I called my mom in NJ and stunned her with the knowledge that I was an hour away in NYC.

Anyway, I excused myself from dinner, hopped on a bus to my childhood house in Hazlet, borrowed my mom's car and drove down to Jersey Shore Medical Center.

It was close to midnight
Read 5 tweets
8 Mar
We are watching people put a price on their reputations in realtime.

Their bet is they will make so much money they won't need them.
Here's the thing. I've seen this many times. And it will probably work and be fine.

But as I'm struggling to teach my 7 yr old these days, it's what you do when nobody is looking. Fear of repercussions is the lowest bar.
This also implies you should not worry if people get what is coming to them. That can be the thought of someone who abstains bc they fear repercussions themselves.

It will sap your energy to concern yourself. Just protect yourself and others who you can protect.
Read 5 tweets
3 Mar
An example of thinking about wanting to be long options where the stock ain't going.

In my PA I might consider stock replacement. Not ITM calls though. OTM calls.

Why?

The first thing most might think is "steep upside slope"

That's not exactly what I'm thinking.
US large cap is expensive by every measure. Fine. Well Meb Faber said Japan went to 90 p/e. The market could 2 to 3x from here on flat earnings. Falling behind on that would suck. Not acceptable. Wealth effect would mean I could never afford a house in that world.

Still...
That's not really the driver of the trade expression. It's that given the valuation I'm ok missing a 10% rally say but if the market rolls over there's my actual win condition.

Not being overly exposed to the sell-off (I know stonks only go up)
Read 8 tweets
3 Mar
A thread about directional edge vs carry based on a convo I had with a younger trader.

His strategy was to sell options when IV was in the 100th percentile. What are some problems with this?
The most obvious is that 100th percentile depends on your lookback window and the relevance of that window is I don't know, arbitrary. The historical distribution of IV does not need to have any relevance with respect to qualitative information you have today. (Umm, GME).
Here's another issue.

Any day when vol goes up after a 100th percentile IV day is just another 100th percentile IV day.

The next day given, that you just hit 100th percentile yesterday, just doesn't care that yesterday was a "top" compared to the days that preceded it.
Read 16 tweets
2 Mar
Watching finance/tech moguls who have ridden govt-sponsored near zero cost of capital to multi-gen wealth not answer the door when the govt comes back around looking for a wealth tax rebate
Don't get me wrong it's a bad idea...but strictly for practicality reasons. Not for some ethical or other made up incentive theory. We haven't cared about sht like that since GS was made whole on AIG CDS, entrenching TBTF, and favoring monetary over fiscal until a pandemic hit.
Next time the govt buys assets to stimulate the economy it should also buy a lookback option from the asset sellers. Then we can say "look you knew the rules before you took the money". They still would have signed up bc people love to sell options too cheap...
Read 4 tweets
2 Mar
I was going to write a post similar to this but from a different angle. I'm not going to get around to doing that but I'll share the gist...
Labor wages are less volatile than asset returns are only applied to a flow variable...income.

Asset volatility is applied to a stock variable...wealth.

Ok let's consider utility of wealth for a moment...
Whether you want to attribute it to behavioral loss aversion or non-ergodicity (ie we intuitively maximize geometric returns) the outcome is the same:

We have concave wealth functions.
Read 15 tweets

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