Thread by @TheValuesVoter

There are a bunch of states that, if you compare the turnout rates during Presidential Elections and the GOP's margins for Presidential Elections over the last 4 to 5 elections, have an odd quirk.

They always move in the opposite directions.

In other words, in these states, the higher the turnout, the worse the GOP does. And the lower the turnout, the better the GOP does.

There are 3 states that have followed this pattern since 2004 and another 6 that have followed it since 2008.

All but one of these 9 states has a population that is at least 10% black, 10% latino or both. The one exception is the state of Montana, which also follows this pattern. The more people have voted, the worse the GOP has done during Presidential elections and visa versa.

Arizona, which has a heavily latino population, has exhibited this pattern since 2008. It finally flipped blue in 2020, as turnout reached an all-time high.

Likewise, Georgia, whose population is one third black, has followed this pattern. The higher percentage of Georgians voted, the worse the GOP did and visa versa. The state eventually flipped blue in 2020.

Kansas, which is more than 10% latino, also followed this pattern since 2008. Kansas is still a red state. But the GOP nominee did worse in Kansas in 2020 than in any Presidential election since 1992.

Massachusetts is a solidly blue state. But it is more than 10% latino and nearly 10% black and also follows this pattern, with the GOP continuing to do worse the more people participate in the election.

New Mexico is nearly half latino. And in 2000 and 2004, it was a close state during Presidential elections. But then more people started to vote. And the GOP's performance in Presidential elections in the state have been inversely related to turnout since 2008.

And the second largest state in the country, Texas, which is more than 10% black and nearly two fifths latino, has followed this pattern since 2008.

At least five of these nine states in which Republicans do worse the more people vote were considered swing states during the 2020 election.

Another observation: 6 of these 9 states in which the GOP’s margin during Presidential Elections has always moved in the opposite direction of turnout since at least 2008 are represented in the US Senate by at least one Democratic Senator.