Thread by @MattWGriffith

I am now officially VERY depressed about the dynamics of #Bristolprotests

Here is an observer’s view – on why it could get worse before it could get better.

Depressing TLDR: We might be trapped in a cycle of worsening disruption for a while unless we wake up…

1/

Quick disclaimer:

Have lived in central Bristol for 12 years. Protests have, literally, been keeping my kids up at night.

Day job is for org that's spent past 30 years trying to regenerate city centre – in wake of 1990s riots.

But this is *my personal view only*

2/

Reason for depression #1

* I can see very little coherent political strategy or path to resolution with the protesters and the police.*

Sorry to be a bummer, but if there is, it is narrow & getting narrower. Why?

3/

Unlike previous riots (St Pauls – policing & economic exclusion / Hartcliffe – ditto), main focus is national: the Police & Crime Bill.

But this Bill is in place, with a government that isn’t going away for 4 to 10 years (?)

Bristol has zero political leverage over this

4/

The sub theme is policing

But Avon & Somerset are a pretty liberal force (their policing of Colston was exemplary. So much so Chief Constable Andy Marsh was close to getting sacked from central government).

There remain issues, but these are million miles from 1980s.

5/

The make up of the protesters make political resolution difficult.

Is no coherent leadership

The main components are:

a) bored middle class students,

b) hardcore of active rioters / anarchists

c) larger pool of politically active 20 somethings.

6/

This is not a coalition that has national political leverage. It has close to zero parliamentary or legislative influence. It has v limited public sympathy, (& the maj of UK public probably actively hostile). Bristol is in v weak place to exert national political traction.

7/

Recent Bristol protest culture thrives on the ‘meta’ issue – Palestine / Remain / Extinction Rebellion

None of these really get won by local engagement, hard graft of lobby or coalition building.

Political culture is to back a big cause – as loudly as possible.

8/

So is also hard to address protesters grievances. 1980s riots led to massive focus on urban regen & better community relations: 1st Heseltine, then Labour public spending.

Bristol still has huge inequalities / dire school outcomes for deprived groups / unaffordable housing.
9/

But protesters studying English Lit at a Russel Group Uni prob aren’t motivated by the above. It appears a broader cultural struggle. How can local politicians effectively address basically global and national cultural concerns?

10/

If you are bored student, these protests are the stuff of future legend.

You will be able to tell your contemporaries at St Andrews / fellow students / kids / future Glasto campmates about it.

These protests are the cultural capital opportunity of their lifetimes.
11/

I have seen local students on my street hear a police helicopter, put on their mask and run out of the house to seek it out.

They also have little sanction – no job to go to, no local family network that might disapprove. It is a pretty personally cost free activity.
12/

I’m sad to say that some lecturers at Bristol University aren’t going out of there way to help calm things down here… Language like this is really NOT HELPFUL (& not sure how someone who lives in Clevedon knows that Bristol is “boiling” btw)
13/

Previous riots could allow political discussion with local community leaders – e.g. St Paul’s, & a planned future of change by concrete community improvements.

How can local leaders do this with broadly non Bristolian students & many transient non Bristolian protestors?
14/

Most worryingly - the days are still getting longer, and pubs and clubs are shut due to Covid restrictions.

For a large element of protesters, there really isn’t anything else to do for months. Boredom is a powerful motivator, and it ain’t going away anytime soon.
15/

Am also v worried that Bristol is going to get caught in wider political dynamics that will lead to an exacerbation of local tensions
16/

1. This is an open goal for government.

The UK public dislike urban unrest & will support the police. Why would government not make political capital from what most of the country see as semi anarchy? Law and Order wins votes. So expect alot more tweets from the PM
17/

2 - Its becoming a proxy battle in Labour party politics.

Most local Labour figures are horrified by the violence. They are really worried about the long term impact on the city’s health and community relations

But one wing of the Labour party see it as an opportunity
18/

Momentum has lost control of local labour CLPs. But what better way to needle local MPs and the Mayor than this? Aaron Bastani and Clive Lewis have been stirring the pot on Twitter. Momentum locally have been looking for local issues to utilise. Bristol becomes a proxy.
19/

3/ We have elections coming up.
One PCC candidate has positioned themselves on the protestor "real concerns" side of debate. The ‘be tough for law and order’ side is obviously vacant (and has more votes).

We risk several months of big politicisation of local policing.

20/

Bristol Mayor elections risk getting drawn in.
Luckily two main candidates (Marvin & Sandy) are level headed.

Marvin is excellent on dealing with city tensions, Sandy had burning police vans outside his youth project. But Twitter activists will push to politicise.
21/

Bristol has v strong anarchist tendency. The founder of Class War lives here, the Bristolian mag is its in house journal, high profile Bristol Twitter figures are professed revolutionaries. They don’t want compromise. They are loving disruption.
22/

Bristol has a v strong independent media. They are all fair mined and talented. But this is a big story for them. And who wouldn’t like the attention? Daily calls from the Guardian. Invites to talk to RT or the NYT. Big chance for national attention.
23/

So media want an evolving story: the obvious one is not “isn’t it tough to be a policeman” or “this is doing real damage to the city”, it is “who has been hit over the head with a truncheon?”

And police, protest & political dynamics will oblige. Cue further outrage.
24/

The obvious political and media dynamic is therefore to seek out the worst behaviour from both protestors and individual police officers. All will be clipped for Twitter. All will heap pressure for polarisation. All will encourage more ruckus.

25/

Meanwhile the good people of Bristol sit on the sides and despair.

Those in the city centre worry about the impact this will have on their livelihoods – after biggest economic shock since the blitz, & dire visitor numbers. A long summer of protest is last thing they need.
26/

Whilst traditional Bristolians in deprived neighbourhoods once again see middle class get the attention. Underperforming schools stay poor. Transport stays crap. And Bristol’s reputation gets tarnished – so gov becomes less likely to give funding to deal with bigger problems. 27/

Where next? My one plea is to Bristol’s young people. We know these protests matter to you. We know you are frustrated. But please think twice before dragging this out. We have spent 30 years trying to claw back Bristol from real decline. You are now putting that all at risk. 28/

My other plea to Bristolians on social media. Please try and keep perspective. Be aware that people are trying to manipulate it for political ends. Don’t listen to the provocateurs. Stay cool, don’t escalate. We are better than this.
29/

My final plea is for both sides to dial down. It's potentially going rapidly in the wrong direction, and many outside forces will be cheering that on. Let's not go there - big breath, step back, start talking (ideally not on Twitter)
ENDS

P.s. I really hate twitter, I dont want the attention or Twitter fights that might result from this, but i am genuinely worried as to where the city is right now. Peace & love x

Thanks for all the comments.

Couple of people have asked- if I really disagree with the Bill, what can I do? Aren't these protests the only option?

So below are my 7 top tips on those serious about influencing change on civil liberties:

https://mobile.twitter.com/jonemsankey/status/1376254065299091461

1. Have a parliamentary political strategy (aka learn to count)

The Bill will be voted through parliament. You need to find Tory rebels. They have a coherent political worldview, many are concerned about excessive state power. Find them, talk to them with voices they respect.

2) Build a coalition, dont just talk to people who already agree or shout at those who don't.

Find ex police, vicars, judges, Russian political dissidents, footballers, war veterans, MI5 chiefs - defy stereotyping and expectations.

3) Think how you persuade majority opinion with arguments they sympathise with. The UK has a long tradition of liberty, political tolerance and fighting oppression - mobilise this collective memory. Make the argument in these terms.

4 make sure all protest is PEACEFUL. Remove all space for violence. Do it on Sunday afternoon, not times when troublemakers can hijack. Have clear and strong leadership. Let no agitators come anywhere near. Get elderly nuns to lead the protest. Do it in the Cotswolds not Bristol

5. You are privileged- use it smartly!

Most brits hate being lectured at by students. Culture war red rag. But you will be well connected - film your well spoken Gran, contact the friend of your aunt who writes for the Telegraph, ask for a chat with Tory MP intern you know.

6. Bristol is the worst place to do this. Harassing Marvin Rees is not smart politics (and wastes everyone's energy). You need to persuade Mark Harper, Steve Baker, David Davis. They have concerns about civil liberties, they have influence. Persuade them.

7. GOLDEN RULE.

Do not attack the police - verbally or, god forbid, physically.

The UK public respect the police, they do a difficult job in tough circumstances. They do not make the law, they enforce it.

Making further protest about police oppression is really stupid.

The problem with the Bristol Protests is that they do 180 degree opposite of all the above.

Burning a police van has meant the public will no longer give you a hearing. More street protests with violence will destroy the coalition you need to build. It is now counterproductive.

If you don't get the above, then I really question your commitment to influencing change or your cause.

It looks and feels self indulgent. Further protests in Bristol in the same style will just entrench opposition. They will also do the city a lot of damage.

Thanks 🕊🙏