Short thread on people and trust:

The first place I started doing business in was China and I knew I was going to get screwed because it was “China”, a lane of fake products and scams. I had heard the horror stories.

I was right in I did get screwed.
A few years later I came back to the United States and I tried working with a US manufacturer for something that I was previously making in China after my Chinese supplier had screwed me.

Boy was it expensive!
And something very strange happened. I had paid a lot of money for a mold made by an American mold maker and the mold was not working as it should and I told my American supplier that.

And he said “no you’re wrong.”
I was pretty sure I was right and after some contemplation I realized that...

Here I was in America and I was getting screwed! I thought this was only supposed to happen in China!
I realized that the difference between China and America was the price. You could get screwed in either country but at least in China, when you did, it cost 1/5th as much.
So that was manufacturing only I thought, a dirty grimy industry full of unsavory people.

But as I got more experience, I got screwed in more places. First it was some Europeans, then some Canadians (yes, it’s possible!). People of all stripes and colors. It didn’t matter.
Something that I found very surprising that I’ve come to learn recently is that the threat of someone losing their reputation in a superficially trusted network that people consider prestigious was not a deterrent to bad behavior.
In other words, even if you belonged to the same church, temple, country club, university alumni network, friend group, whatever...people would still screw you!

Amazing I thought, people will literally happily shoot themselves in the foot for a few extra bucks in the short term.
So after 11 years of intense trial by fire experience in the business world I will tell you this:

It does not matter if someone is from China or America or Africa or a lawyer or an accountant or they went to Brown or Bronx Community College.
Some percentage of the time by some percentage of people you’re going to get screwed because people are not only dishonest but they are shortsighted. They don’t realize how doing that hurts them in the long run. So my advice for you is, no matter how you think about trust, make
sure that the level of due diligence & self protection you engage in us directly proportional not to how well someone is credentialed, but instead to HOW MUCH THEY CAN HARM YOU.

It’s not about the probability of getting screwed by xyz, it’s the damage they’ll do when it happens.

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More from @Molson_Hart

26 Mar
Fun debate going down between @SenWarren and @amazonnews

Let me try to be objective as possible about this:

- Amazon doesn't have the obligation to pay anymore tax than what is demanded upon them and they are outstanding at doing this.
- at the same time, they engage in some borderline dishonest activities when it comes to tax minimization (not evasion). For example, Amazon knew they should've been paying sales tax instead of 3rd party merchants, but they also knew that not doing so gave them a leg up against
brick and mortar retail. So they pointed their figure at the merchants and said "they should be collecting" until the Supreme Court ruled that they had to collect.

- Congress doesn't do enough about Amazon and e-commerce for a couple of reasons:
Read 5 tweets
26 Mar
Despite my reservations associated with reading books by non-practitioners, I read this, written by a Harvard business school professor. It had a few good concepts. Image
1) there are two types of innovations: a) sustaining predictable innovation eg fitting more transistors on a microprocessor for a 20% improvement
B) disruptive innovations eg quantum computing.

Big established players are good at former, bad at latter. Image
(Highlights and underlines are mostly not me. An idiot read this book before I did)

2. This is my favorite insight from the book. Big companies do not go into disruptive innovations because they are a) low margin at the outset b) low quality c) not desired by their current
Read 8 tweets
13 Feb
Can I get some constructive criticism on the following prediction of inflation?

The below graph is a popular way of showing that overall CPI has been muted (2.25% between 1991 and 2021), but certain categories of goods have seen big increases in prices.

1/n
I like to think about it in terms of the following categories:

- stuff that can be outsourced (toys, clothing)
- stuff that is made cheaper by tech (new cars, software, tvs)
- subsidized or interfered with by government (college textbooks/tuition & hospital/medical care)

2/n
If you look at the categories that have seen the biggest price increases, it's all stuff that gov't is involved in:

- housing (FHA loans)
- education (sallie mae
- healthcare (I don't know how this works admittedly).

3/n
Read 7 tweets
3 Jan
I’m the founder CEO of an educational e-commerce toy company that did about $7.4 million in sales in 2020

This article is going to tell you what that was like and how things were different in 2020 than in 2019.

Here's a thread of the highlights 1/n:

molsonhart.com/blog/being-an-…
Amazon was 93.4% of our sales.

Down from 98.1% of our sales in 2018, which is good!

You can read more here:

Image
This is probably the most interesting datapoint in the whole article.

I broke down the cost of selling on Amazon.com vs. Walmart.com vs. eBay.com vs. our own website. Image
Read 7 tweets
3 Jan
New type of commerce evolving before our eyes:

Step 1: achieve success in any area
Step 2: leverage that to get media distribution (Netflix, podcast, social media following)
Step 3: create personal brand
Step 4: endorse new ventures in new but adjacent areas
This works because the hardest part of a new business is almost always getting customers.

When you have a firehose of social media distribution that problem is partially solved.

This strategy is most common in restaurants, but can work for anything.
@nickkokonas is a perfect example of this.

1) cofounds Alinea, one of America’s most famous restaurants
2) parlays it into Netflix show appearances, podcasts, gets on Twitter
3) creates personal brand more than “the not chef alinea guy”
4) endorses tock app, cookwear, book
Read 4 tweets
2 Jan
Everyone on Twitter is complaining about how few people the US has vaccinated as though we lack the logistics capacity to do so.

Others are blaming government for preventing large groups from being vaccinated.

Are we sure it’s not just a demand problem?
- a lot of people have already had the virus
- a lot of people think they’ve had the virus
- the vaccine is a pia to get and requires two doses
- a lot of people don’t have insurance or have bad insurance. Has our govt made it clear that this vaccine is free? I don’t know
- the vaccine has a list of scary side effects such as potential loss of fertility
- there are a ton more vaccines in the pipe and people may think “well I can get a better later one”
- people want to see how these vaccine candidates will turn out
Read 4 tweets

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