Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴) Profile picture
Mar 29, 2021 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
THREAD:

Many things set #Bitcoin apart from any altcoin. But keep it simple, no technical metrics needed.

Three elements to consider:
- Digital scarcity is a one-time phenomenon
- Schelling points
- Money is the mother of all network effects & tends to one Image
The graphic above shows the proliferation of cryptocurrencies over time. In truth, they exist in two categories: Bitcoin and copycats.

By definition, a copy of a digitally scarce system is itself not scarce. The marginal cost of creating an additional new copy is zero.
In this sense, it is only the original instance of a digitally scarce system that is actually scarce: Bitcoin.

Digital scarcity is a one-time phenomenon.

To understand this more deeply:
-@Breedlove22 breedlove22.medium.com/the-number-zer…
-@parkeralewis unchained-capital.com/blog/bitcoin-c…
Next, consider what would happen if you showed the graphic above to 100 people and asked them to pick which circle was most valuable.

Better yet, which circle they thought the other 99 people would pick.

That's called a Schelling Point, a game theoretic focal point.
This is the same choice that the world faces with regard to selecting a system of digital scarcity to store their hard-earned value in.

Before even considering Bitcoin's pros/cons vs. upstart competitors, advantage Bitcoin.

@Willem_VdBergh medium.com/@willemvandenb…
Finally, consider network effects. Network effects apply whenever the value of a system increases as the number of users increases. Telephones, the internet, Facebook, etc.

Metcalfe's Law describes the value of a network as proportional to users^2.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_e…
Money is the mother of all network effects - we gain wealth by choosing to value the form of money that others value, and we lose wealth if we choose wrong. (Beanie babies, tulips, silver, NFTs.)

As such, money tends to one.

Now, let's return to our original graphic.
Each digital value network carries a network effect, the strength of which can be approximated by the $ value of each. (Shown here as size of circle, with accurate scale.)

With your hard-earned money at stake, pick which circle others will value most.

That simple. #Bitcoin Image

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More from @Croesus_BTC

Mar 19
Saylor's huge new move: $STRF

Strategy is a pump, designed to accelerate capital flow from the Bond market into #Bitcoin

This is how @saylor will source $3T of Bond market capital to buy Bitcoin

THREAD explaining it all... Image
Bond market:
~2% convertible debt
~98% ordinary debt

To date, Strategy has sourced capital via individual convertible notes

Now they've added:
- $STRK to streamline convertible note offering
- $STRF to tap into the $300T of capital in the broader fixed income market Image
Don't believe me? Listen to Saylor tell you:

"There's $300 trillion of fixed income so I want 1% of it."

He is thinking about this graphic. It's why he shows it in every presentation.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 14
There are now 36,000,000+ altcoins.

This has only made #Bitcoin stronger.

THREAD breaking down what's happening & why altseason has been permanently cancelled... Image
As the number of altcoins has grown...

Their combined strength has weakened.

Since 2021, Bitcoin dominance has increased. Image
When coins die, they don't go to $0. They last trade at $10k or $100k market cap.

With 36M coins like this, a significant portion of total crypto market cap is illiquid leftovers.

With that in mind, Bitcoin is approaching *effective* total dominance... Image
Read 7 tweets
Mar 12
$13M per #Bitcoin in 20 years.

That's what Michael @Saylor expects.

THREAD breaking down what he sees & how he got to this number... Image
Saylor's analysis allows for a bearish scenario of "only" $3M per BTC...

But also a BULLISH scenario of as much as $49M per BTC in just 20 years.

How did he get these numbers?... Image
As a starting point, Saylor leveraged my analysis (@Croesus_BTC). This gave him:

- $900T of value in the world
- rationale that all $900T is within scope as SoV
- "Full Potential Valuation" framework for forecasting #Bitcoin value

(Can find original article at link in my bio) Image
Read 8 tweets
Mar 10
.@saylor revealed his latest Strategy to acquire more BTC

The potential scale? +262,500 BTC and +52% BTC yield

THREAD breaking down what it means for #Bitcoin, $MSTR, and $STRK ... Image
This new program gives Strategy up to $21B in newly raised funds, explicitly to buy Bitcoin Image
Strategy will sell shares of $STRK directly into the market ("at-the-market") in order to streamline fundraising

Previously, they had to announce, price, sell, and close individual Convertible Notes Image
Read 8 tweets
Jun 12, 2023
I just read Binance's formal response to the SEC's lawsuit, so you don't have to.

Here are the key arguments they submitted to the courts today.

It's an embarrassingly weak defense... [thread] Image
The primary framing of the document, and the primary argument for the court to deny the SEC its request for a temporary restraining order (TRO) to halt Binance activities is...

"Why now?"

That's the best Binance has... Image
The first assertion that Binance's lawyers make is that the SEC has no right to ask the courts to interject.

Which seems a little comical, as the SEC's mandate is to enforce securities law and they believe Binance has flouted those laws.

Kinda the SEC's whole thing... Image
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Jun 1, 2023
In the 2019 bear market bottom, I got caught on the sidelines waiting to buy #Bitcoin lower. I listened to on-chain gurus and their favorite metrics.

Learn from my mistakes. Thread on:

- Which Bitcoin price metrics have value & why
- Where we are in the Bitcoin market cycle
After 6 years full-time learning, I believe there’s 3 reliable price drivers:

1. Bitcoin’s halvings (increasing scarcity over time)
2. Human psychology amplifying volatility in the wake of the halvings
3. Macroeconomic conditions (e.g. QT/QE)

#1 + #2 create this dynamic: Image
Everything else is reading tea leaves, retroactively finding spurious patterns, or downstream of the above 3 drivers.

But these downstream indicators are useful. Some quantify and capture human psychology in action.

Here are 3 worth knowing...
Read 7 tweets

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