Ray Dalio Profile picture
29 Mar, 7 tweets, 1 min read
"Learning must come before deciding. Your brain stores different types of learning in your subconscious, your rote memory bank, and your habits. (1/7)
But no matter how you acquire your knowledge or where you store it, what’s most important is that what you know paints a true and rich picture of the realities that will affect your decision. (2/7)
That’s why it always pays to be radically open- minded and seek out believable others as you do your learning. Many people have emotional trouble doing this and block the learning that could help them make better decisions. (3/7)
Remind yourself that it’s never harmful to at least hear an opposing point of view. (4/7)
Deciding is the process of choosing which knowledge should be drawn upon—both the facts of this particular “what is” and your broader understanding of the cause-effect machinery that underlies it (5/7)
—and then weighing them to determine a course of action, the “what to do about it.” This involves playing different scenarios through time to visualize how to get an outcome consistent with what you want. (6/7)
To do this well, you need to weigh first-order consequences against second- and third-order consequences, and base your decisions not just on near-term results but on results over time." (7/7)

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More from @RayDalio

29 Mar
The question that Americans have to answer is: are the principles that bind us together greater or weaker than the principles that are tearing us apart? (1/6)
Before we collectively, as a country, can decide what to do, we must try to reach an agreement on what we want most and how we should deal with each other to get it. In other words, we must see if we can agree on our most fundamental principles. (2/6)
To be a truly united United States we must reaffirm our vows on the biggest shared principles and, in pursuit of them, reaffirm our protocols for thoughtful disagreement through a process that the overwhelming majority of Americans agree with. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
24 Mar
I’ve systematized my study of bubbles over time into a “bubble indicator” based on six influences, which are combined into gauges. We do this for each stock that we are looking at
then these gauges are combined into aggregate indices by security and then for the market as a whole. This chart shows the aggregate reading derived by combining these gauges into one reading for the stock market going back to 1910.
It shows how the conditions stack up today for US equities in relation to past times. In brief, the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall.
Read 4 tweets
19 Mar
As you know, I believe the American Dream of equal opportunity leading to greater productivity and rising living standards for all is largely lost and needs to be revived. (1/5)
If you want my thinking about that, the Common Good Forum shared my acceptance speech which you can see here: (2/5)
Because of that perspective, I commend Goldman Sachs for its One Million Black Women initiative which you can read about here: essence.com/news/money-car…. (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
17 Mar
From my perspective of being 71 years old and looking back on my life, its arc, and the life arcs of others, I decided to share the picture of what those life arcs look like with my grandchildren and other loved ones to help them see what they will encounter (1/4)
and plan for how to deal with it. While not all life arcs are the same, most are pretty similar when it comes to the most important things.

I am now passing this along to you because it might help you and your loved ones. You can read about it here. (2/4)
This exercise is intended to help you put your life in perspective and to plan for the future to help you get the life you want. This perspective has helped me and many people I have shared it with, and I hope you find it helpful as well. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
9 Mar
Knowing what people are like is the best indicator of how well they are likely to handle their responsibilities in the future. At Bridgewater, we call this "paying more attention to the swing than the shot." (1/4)
Since good and bad outcomes can arise from circumstances that might not have had anything to do with how the individual handled the situation, it is preferable to assess people based on both their reasoning and their outcomes. (2/4)
I probe their thinking in a very frank way so as not to let them off the hook. Doing this has taught me a lot about how to assess others' logic, and how to have better logic myself. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
5 Mar
If you don’t mind being wrong on the way to being right you’ll learn a lot--and increase your effectiveness. (1/4) Image
But if you can’t tolerate being wrong, you won’t grow, you’ll make yourself and everyone around you miserable, and your work environment will be marked by petty backbiting and malevolent barbs rather than by a healthy, honest search for truth. (2/4)
You must not let your need to be right be more important than your need to find out what’s true. Jeff Bezos described it well when he said, (3/4)
Read 4 tweets

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