Rising Stars 1: $6,870 (-14% since this morning) π
Rising Stars 2: $4,430 (-7.9%) π
All-Star Game 2: $3,890 (-12.8%) π
Seeing Stars 2: $2,410 (-20.7%) π
I'm a little bit worried about marketplace conditions right now β¬οΈ
There are a number of reasons why the market might be falling:
1. General FUD (like we've been seeing) 2. Lack of new money in circulation 3. Pack drop/Increased supply, etc
But honestly, I really think today's decline is mostly about Seeing Stars 1.
Maybe I'm off, but I saw people projecting KD to settle ~$700 (at least) AND that the SS moments would hold up ok post-challenge.
BOTH of these assumptions fell through.
SS1 moments cratered post-challenge (they've recovered a bit since) and KD was easily attainable at $500.
HERE'S THE ISSUE:
1. 1000s of collectors got burned 2. This is a key demographic & the most likely collectors of future challenges 3. SS1 was WAY worse than a "serial lottery" where you lose 10% in exchange for upside 4. This was many new collectors' first challenge
Personally, I was really surprised by what happened with SS1 prices & the KD moment.
Not sure if people were desperate for Dapper liquidity or if FUD is seeping in & they're just trying to salvage what they can, but a lot of people lost a lot of money on SS1.
I'm still VERY bullish on Top Shot in the long term, but 1 of 3 things needs to happen:
1. Challenge moments need to retain more value post-challenge 2. Challenge rewards need to open at higher valuations 3. Challenge moment prices need to decline
Right now we're seeing #3
β’ β’ β’
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