Currently looking at a chart from this A.M.'s GCRU newsletter. A 54 year chart (1967-2021) comparing gold to real T-bill yields. Shows that during great gold bull mkt decades of 1970s & 2000s it didn't matter if negative rates became less negative due to rising rates. Gold rose
Didn't even matter if "real" rates went slightly positive. As long as they were low, gold still rose. For example, from the summer of 1977 to early 1980 gold skyrocketed as the fed funds rate was lifted from 4.75% to 15%. It was only when Volcker raised to 20% did gold break
GCRU conclusion: "You’ll notice whenever the real yield (in that 54-yr chart) has been over 3-4%, it has put downside pressure on gold. But whenever the real rate
has been below that level, it has been bullish
for gold."
Another example: Fed raised fed funds rate from 1% in June 2004 to 5 1/4% in June 2006. Gold soared from under $400 an ounce to over $700 during that period (real rates stayed below 3-4%). History does not confirm the current algo/hedge fund-"real rate rise" gold selloff story
For those wondering about a 10-yr Treasury rise. 10-yr. soared from around 7.75% in summer of 1976 to 10.4% at the end of 1979. Gold went from $100 to $500 (up 5X) during that period. 10-yr Treasury yields also rose during June 2004-June 2006 period. Gold nearly doubled in price

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More from @htsfhickey

8 Mar
In mid-2000s I was told(by Bernanke & others) there couldn't possibly be a nat'l housing bubble. But I could see it with my own eyes(& wrote about it). Now I'm told inflation's too low, yet I can see inflation percolating everywhere - from commodity prices…
to foods & now even to energy, to freight rates, to the unprecedented money supply growth (though current M's increases are historic & much lesser money growth has led to inflation before), from anyone producing durable goods, to the "prices paid" ISM reports, to housing prices
J. Powell doesn't even believe U.S. govt's unemployment data (believes they're far too low), so why should anyone believe U.S. govt. inflation data - when we know there's a motive to suppress them - so politicians can keep spending, handing out free money & running up deficits?
Read 4 tweets
5 Mar
Legendary gold investor, Pierre Lassonde recently said that investment demand sets the ceiling price for gold, but the jewelry market sets the floor price. This is what Bitcoin doesn't have - real physical buyers to take the other side of the speculators.…
Speculators (led by hedge funds) have been pressing gold lower using their levered paper futures contracts (they never touch an ounce of gold) knowing all the technicians' chart sell price levels. Breaking those levels causes "forced" selling. They push "trend" as far as they can
But eventually they run into the "floor" set by real physical gold demand. The gap between the physical prices (where there are great shortages today) and the speculators' much lower paper prices are as great as I've ever seen them - meaning paper pushers are running out of room
Read 6 tweets
8 Jan
The herd has little interest in precious metals & "value" stocks in general. Too enthralled chasing one-direction bubble symbols such as TSLA, GBTC & ARKK. Repeat of '99-2000. Exact same behavior. Only the symbols have changed. Back then it was the likes of YHOO, WCOM & JDSU
Ending will be the same too. Total collapse in the parabolic blow-off symbols (down 90%+) and huge shift to value stocks & precious metals. In the meantime, with so little trading volume in metals, they're vulnerable to -$25 all-in-a-few minutes smashes in wee hours of night.
From the '99-2000 experience, I know it is pointless to engage in "conversation" with the Bubbleheads. Nothing will make them understand - greed has clouded their minds & they are full of hubris. Let them party on... the higher their symbols fly - the greater the crashes will be
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct 20
Back in 2011 when gold was selling around today's level, Alamos Gold traded at over $20 a share. Today it's trading at just 8, yet tonight it reported outstanding Q3 results including record cash flow from operations of 33 cents per share (up 62% Y/Y), GAAP EPS of .17 (up 240%)
Alamos reported "adjusted" EPS of .15 per share, up 150% y/y (a big "beat"), hiked its dividend 33% & paid off the remainder ($100M) of its revolving credit line. AGI now has no debt. Better still, its Young-Davidson flagship mine (AGI's biggest producer), was limited in Q3.
Alamos's flagship Young-Davidson (Y/D) mine was severely limited in July as AGI completed a multi-yr expansion that will significantly increase the mine's production & lower its costs. At the midpoint, AGI is forecasting a 42% increase in Y/D's production from Q3.
Read 6 tweets
27 Oct 20
Microsoft handily beat top & bottom line expectations but following the pattern of last week's tech results("beats" but then stock selloffs), MSFT's stock is off a few points in after hrs. trading. MSFT went into tonight with a 37 P/E & 11.6 times sales.…
MSFT's yr-over-yr revenue growth of 12% in the latest quarter & its forecast of just 8% in current qtr does not justify such high P/E & price/sales multiples it currently has. That's the case with most of the FANG & cloud stocks - so post-EPS selloffs trend may continue this week
During the 1999-2000 tech bubble, it was the same problem as today. "Investors" paid any price for great "stories." They neglected to think about valuation. But eventually that mistake caught up with them & all tech stocks collapsed -no matter how bright their futures would be
Read 4 tweets
19 Dec 19
So Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrota is calling "the bottom" (again). On Dec. 19, 2018 (exactly 1 yr ago) Mehrota stated Micron was just suffering from a short-term "air pocket" (untrue), the 2nd half of the calendar yr. would be "improved" (it got much worse), the inventory buildup...
would be cleared up "within a couple of quarters" (didn't happen -MU's inventories were up 28% from Dec. 2018 & according to Morgan Stanley (today) Micron's "customers are now also holding inventory, which wasn't a factor six months ago,as Micron again highlighted...(Continued)
inventory builds in China,and our checks show proactive inventory builds from cloud customers as well." Mehrota in December 2018 claimed customer demand was "vibrant" (again untrue as MU's revenues plummeted all year long). So why the heck would ANYONE believe ANYTHING he says?
Read 4 tweets

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