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Jonah Lupton

@JonahLupton

Feb 15

Last summer when $SMCI had a market cap below $10B I thought the stock could 5x over the next 5 years.

I didn’t expect the stock to 5x over the next 8 months.

I came into the year with a 13.5% position in $SMCI.

$SMCI is up more then 250% YTD

I’ve been trimming my position by 6-8% everyday for the past 2-3 weeks but the position barely shrank because the stock was going up by 6-8% every day (or more).

The last few days my trimming has gotten more aggressive.

Today as $SMCI started approaching $1,000 per share which was my price target by the end of 2025 it was time to get very aggressive with the trimming.

Today I sold approx 40% of my $SMCI position to get my current position below 10% for the first time since last summer.

I loved $SMCI in the $100s and $200s. I liked $SMCI in the $300s and $400s. I could justify holding $SMCI in the $500s, $600s and $700s but now that $SMCI is above $1,000+ the risk/reward is no longer in my favor especially with $NVDA earnings next week.

I will continue trimming my position if the stock goes higher, I’d probably be out completely at $1150+

I also bought some April puts today just to hedge part of my remaining position in case we get a big pullback into $NVDA earnings or because of $NVDA earnings.

I don’t love trimming my highest conviction stocks this quickly but I didn’t really have a choice. Paying the tax man won’t be fun but watching your gains disappear is even less fun.

Now that I’m up 75% YTD it’s all about protecting my gains. Thank you $SMCI for an amazing year. Hopefully I can stack a few more big winners over the next 45 weeks.

Kudos to anyone that has held most of their $SMCI from the $200s when I was loading up and banging the table. It’s been a fun ride for all of us.

If you made money on $SMCI please consider subscribing to my investment service at

It’s only $36 per month or $360 per year.

You not only get all my research (deep dives, mini deep dives and earnings analysis) but you get access to my exact investment portfolio, daily activity and daily notes/commentary.

You are legit getting me for 50-60 hours per week when you add it all up.

If you want the live chat and some alerts then I’d recommend the seeking alpha service which also includes my trading portfolio and morning newsletter…

I guarantee you’ll be happy with the service and if you’re not you can cancel at any time.GrowthStockDeepDives.com
FundamentalGrowthInvestor.com

Anyone that is already in my service will attest to how active I am during the day with charts, market commentary, earnings analysis, updating valuation models, etc.

On my spreadsheet I probably post 200+ notes/comments per day… all of which help you better understand my investment strategy and process.

Read 5 tweets

Jonah Lupton

@JonahLupton

Aug 31, 2023

If you want a shot at owning stocks that 10x over the next 3-5 years like $NVDA and $CELH then you need to figure out which companies are going to crush the current estimates over the next few years.

Here are the FY2024-2027 estimates for $NVDA from 3 years ago (Sept 2020) and where they are now (August 2023)...
FY2024 = $25.6B >> $53.9B
FY2025 = $29.8B >> $74.8B
FY2026 = $34.5B >> $91.5B
FY2027 = $34.7B >> $110.6B

With regards to $CELH, in February 2021 the analysts thought $CELH would do $300M in 2023, now those estimates are up to $1.25B with a couple analysts at $1.3B

Back in March 2021, the analysts thought $CELH would do $438.3M in 2024, now those estimates are up to $1.72B

In October 2021, the analysts thought $CELH would do $941M in 2025, now those estimates are up to $2.4B

Any thoughts on which companies might be next?

These higher estimate trends for $ELF are also very impressive...

Back in April 2022, analysts were expecting $5.3B revenues for $SMCI in FY2024, now those estimates are up to $10B

Read 5 tweets

Jonah Lupton

@JonahLupton

Jan 24, 2023

Just added to my $ALB position pre-market at $258

Last night $ALB announced preliminary Q4 results but more importantly they also provided some very bullish 2023 guidance which is above current estimates.

Q4 adjusted EPS $8.35-$8.75 vs consensus $7.66

Q4 revenue $2.59B-$2.65B vs consensus $2.61B

FY22 EPS $21.65-$22.05 vs consensus $21.03

FY22 revenue view to $7.29B-$7.35B from $7.1B-$7.4B, vs consensus $7.36B.

FY23 adjusted EPS $26-$33 vs consensus $28.08

FY23 revevnue $11.3B-$12.9B vs consensus $10.18B.

FY23 adjusted EBITDA $4.2B-$5.15B

$ALB is targeting 5-year net sales CAGR 19%-21% through 2027.

Targets adjusted EBITDA of $7.2B-$8.4B by 2027

Read 5 tweets

Jonah Lupton

@JonahLupton

Jun 23, 2022

@CelsiusOfficial

I know that lots of investors on FinTwit know me as the $CELH bull so let me share a very meaningful development over the past few days (but it’s been brewing for several months).
Pepsi has terminated their distribution agreement with BANG which is good news for @CelsiusOfficial

A couple years ago BANG ditched their Anheuser Busch distributors after they struck a deal with Pepsi which required that Pepsi buyout Rockstar to get out of that exclusive distribution agreement (what a mess for Pepsi, they just keep compounding their mistakes).

@CelsiusOfficial

After BANG walked away from Anheuser Bsuch it opened the door for @CelsiusOfficial and they have capitalized on this, going from almost no DSD partners to 250+ and going from 30k stores to 150k+

The entire $CELH management team deserves a lot of credit for their execution.

Read 10 tweets

Jonah Lupton

@JonahLupton

May 12, 2022

@FinTwitConf

Good news: to everyone that could not come to the @FinTwitConf this weekend because of prior commitments, job conflicts, family stuff, travel costs or any other reason… we have decided to live steam the entire 2-day event onto @Benzinga’s YouTube channel. More details soon!!!

@markminervini

Now you won’t miss our speakers: @markminervini @Jake__Wujastyk @alphatrends @FabiusMercurius @EBoboch @KGD_Investor @garyblack00 @Trader_mcaruso @LeifSoreide @RayTL_ @RossHaber_ @RichardMoglen @cfromhertz @mintzmyer @hhhypergrowth @StackInvesting @RobInTheBlack @stevenplace

@TrendSpider

Big thanks to our sponsors for making this possible: @TrendSpider @Stocktwits @SubstackInc @CBOE @SeekingAlpha @REXShares @OspreyFunds @cobra_trading @BlackBoxStocks @ArrivedHomes @newsfile_corp @alphaStream_io @moomooApp @thewealthwolves @Benzinga @LuptonCapital

Read 4 tweets

Jonah Lupton

@JonahLupton

May 6, 2022

@FinTwitConf

2nd annual @FinTwitConf starts in exactly 7 days in Las Vegas.

I just talked to @Benzinga and I believe we're adding breakfast to the Friday morning schedule so now the tickets include 4 premium buffet meals plus the cocktail party.

Tickets and info at FinTwit2022.com