We are facing our 3rd lockdown in parts of Canada. It sucks, could have been prevented, but here we are. How can we make sure this is the last time this happens? With vaccines and summer weather coming, we have a golden opportunity to eliminate Covid completely...
We should adopt common sense measures used by Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Australia etc. to hammer case numbers down. Life in these places is mostly normal, with brief lockdowns whenever an outbreak happens. Schools are safe, businesses are thriving, and no one is dying
Why is it important to do this? Although most adults will be vaccinated, children will be left unprotected. Most don't get seriously ill with Covid, but they can get disabling long-term symptoms. No one knows for how long, but can we take that risk with 10% of all children?
Rapid testing was underused in the pandemic, but we can use them to catch outbreaks and nip them in the bud. We can make workplaces, businesses and schools into safe spaces. We have a few months to scale production up. Cases we prevent will more than pay for the costs involved
We will need to control our borders, including real penalties to those who violate testing and quarantine measures. We need to implement these even between provinces, as Australian states have done, and as Atlantic Canada did to create its successful bubble.
We need to step up vaccinations. We should have enough to give every adult in Canada one dose by the end of June. Each protected adult is less likely to spread to others or take up an ICU bed. Some regions are doing very well, others are lagging very badly.
Open up safely, close quickly and briefly: when cases do flare up, we can quickly identify them through monitoring and rapid testing, and briefly close and then reopen again. Nova Scotia and Newfoundland have done this successfully repeatedly and are living mostly normal lives.
We can eliminate Covid from our communities. It won't be easy. If we don’t, we are the mercy of all the new variants that keep popping up, some that are vaccine resistant. We can prove as a society that we are capable of taking on hard challenges and winning.
The cost of doing nothing is visible right now. Scores of essential front-line workers are getting sick and coming to our ICUs, many young people in their 30s to 50s. Many more will get sick in the coming months unless we change our mindset
Canada is having its wave ahead of America... something we haven't seen before. Usually we benefit from 2-4 weeks of warning from the US, now roles are reversed: we're the under performers, the canaries in the coal mine. h/t @jkwan_md for the figures.
And we we're the first in North America to see the new variants absolutely ravage younger and younger people:
With the province opening up indoor dining to more people, I've decided to go into the restaurant business. Ventilators for every patron. Come for the steak, stay for our in-house ICU team!
But seriously, going out to a crowded restaurant is a really bad idea. Even if the government allows something doesn't mean it's wise to do it. Order lots of take-out to support businesses, but please, don't expose yourself right when vaccinations are kicking into high gear.
My colleagues and I are seeing many, many younger people with severe Covid, down to their 30s. These variants are a different beast, and even if you're young it may not spare you and loved ones from a lot of grief. What was safe to do before is simply not so anymore.
We should consider #oneshot vaccinating as many people as quickly as possible, and that means delaying a second dose of the vaccine. We have enough doses coming in by the end of June, that would cover nearly the entire adult population. Why? We are ignoring two thing:
Firstly, there is natural fatigue with Covid measures. I can feel it talking to patients. Better weather is coming, the euphoria around vaccination drives is palpable, and people will let their guard down. It’s only natural, but contagious variants will rip through the public
Secondly, now that we’re quickly vaccinating elders at risk, deaths will become rarer, but we will be ignoring one very important factor - disability. ‘Long Covid syndrome’ can cause issues long after acute infection. And it can wreak havoc: pharmaceutical-journal.com/article/featur…
Quebec is seeing school cases increase exponentially about 1 month after opening schools. They have limited capacity to test for variants, but this pattern is very similar to what we saw in the UK, Ireland and others with the B117 variant.
Sadly so much could have been done to make schools safer, but Quebec did absolutely nothing.
They needed to:
- improve ventilation
- install HEPA filters
- mask everyone from JK
- create small class sizes
- use rapid testing
And of course, the South African and Brazilian variants, along with the UK variant, are on there way to becoming fully established here. No surprise given the volume of flights still coming in and out.
Happy to see more support for rapid testing, now finally being endorsed by prominent experts in Canada. However, this should have happened 6 months ago when their value was first recognized by @michaelmina_lab
There is a global supply crunch for the most accurate tests, and we will need tens of millions of them to really be effective. It takes months to spool up a production line; we could have done so, and easily tested our way out of this lockdown. But we didn't.
The same reticence slowed adoption of mask laws in the summer, and now is slowing recognition of the airborne nature of Covid-19. Is it inertia? Listening to the wrong experts? A culture of just following what America does? Would love to hear any other ideas.