Putin wants to shake up the West and bolster his support. Russia’s buildup along Ukraine serves to distract from internal challenges and intends to consolidate Russian support around an external threat. It’s also a way to challenge the Biden Admin & give Biden a FP black eye.
Russia’s interest & interior lines suggest Putin thinks he can escalate & win this confrontation. The Biden team must send the message there will be major costs for Russian escalation...sanctions & every bit of hardware the Ukrainians need to defend against & defeat an attack.
It’s a history of impunity, a lack of response to aggression & malign influence that brought us to this point. Biden’s efforts to rebaseline the relationship & reestablish deterrence was always going to increase the risk of confrontation. Best to rip the bandaid off now.
The risk of conflict—and more significant conflict—will only increase the longer Putin is unchallenged.
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