So, I wrote about Alex Berenson.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Berenson says lot of confused and concern-trolly things about vaccines. Via email, I asked him to lay out his case for vaccine skepticism.

He replied.

Then I shared his claims with scientists.

They called his theories “absolutely stupid,” “simple fear-mongering,” and “bogus.”
Berenson's claims about the immune system show either a total misunderstanding or deliberate misrepresentation of normal immune-system behavior.
His claims about Pfizer-BioNTech clinical data show either a total misunderstanding or deliberate misrepresentation of clinical data terminology.
His criticism of Israel’s vaccine experience doesn't make any sense.

When he sent me a Hebrew article for evidence (I don’t speak Hebrew) I forwarded it to @segal_eran (he does), who said actually Berenson's supposed evidence contradicted thesis.
Scary vaccine side-effects are a favorite conspiracy theory of his, so let me pause to show exactly how his theories fail to make contact with reality.
Consider his claim that an “excellent” study showed COVID cases spiked in Danish nursing homes after the 1st dose.

I called the lead author. Yes, there were positive cases in the 1st-dose group. Why? Bc the vaccines were surged into LTCFs *already dealing with an outbreak*!
Think about this. Surging vaccines into high-risk areas is smart.

If we surged vaccines in Michigan now, it's inevitable some ppl who received a dose would already be infected with COVID.

By Berenson's logic, this would be proof that the vaccine *made them catch* COVID.
There are two upshots here.

1. This isn’t just about one guy. Vax skepticism enjoys widespread support among Republicans. This group is the marrow of America’s vax resistance problem, and they rely on sources like Fox News that give airtime to Berenson and bullshit.
2. The vaccines work, period.

The case for them is built upon a firm foundation of scientific discovery, clinical-trial data, and real-world evidence.

If the case against them wobbles, it is likely because it is built upon a steaming pile of bullshit.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

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More from @DKThomp

29 Mar
I wrote about how mRNA technology could change the world

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

Here are 5 favorite details from the piece
1. How the failures of HIV-vaccine efforts ironically accelerated the development of the Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech, and J&J vaccines.

When HIV-vax researchers realized that established methods weren't working, they pushed into wacky areas like … synthetic mRNA.
2. How BioNTech, Pfizer's partner, plans to use what it learned from the COVID vaccines to accelerate its efforts to design individualized cancer therapies by targeting the proteins associated with specific tumors
Read 7 tweets
26 Mar
Before my Florida piece, I spoke to many people who were astonished by the mask-wearing diff between northeast metros and Florida.

After it published, I've heard from a lot of FL ppl who say their communities take masks and distancing v seriously despite the governor's approach.
At least 2 lessons here.

1. Florida is a big place.

2. One answer to the Florida mystery—how did it have only avg mortality in an "open"ish economy with so many old people?—is that the public, and seniors in particular, used masks and distancing far more than DeSantis insisted.
Florida is being held up, by some, as proof that masks and distancing don't work, or are dramatically overrated.

One reason I think that's wrong is their impression of Florida's mask/distancing protocols is a caricature of the state's actual behavior.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Read 4 tweets
24 Mar
I talked to Princeton sociologist @patrick_sharkey about America's crime surge.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

It's not just the mass shootings. 2020 had the most gun deaths of any year in US history and was, on a per capita basis, the most violent year of this century. Why?
If you have a deep need for single-cause answers to complicated questions, definitely don't read this story, or any other story, about why crime rises and falls. There are things we know for sure about this surge of violence—and then there's a tug-of-war over interpretation
So, what we know. Violent crime surged by its highest rate in many decades to its highest level in many decades. Fatal shootings rose more than 40% in several cities, including

Madison: 60%
Sacramento: 51%
Milwaukee: 47%
Atlanta: 46%
New York: 44%
Minneapolis: 43%
Boston: 41%
Read 7 tweets
23 Mar
Everybody is wrong about Florida

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
1. Liberals and a lot of public health experts were wrong:

They predicted COVID would specially ravage FL, given its YOLO policies and elderly population. But the state is still officially reporting fewer deaths-per-million than the national average and nearby states.
2. Conservatives are wrong:

There is a lot of chest-beating about how the Florida economy is kicking ass. But as far as I can tell, its economic performance is—kind of like its pandemic performance—much more *average* than the national narrative would make you think.
Read 6 tweets
17 Mar
Shutting down half the economy and losing half a million lives anyway is totally unacceptable.

If we're gonna have 1 pandemic per decade—as we have this century—the U.S. must develop "institutional memory" to ensure this horror show never happens again.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
I asked experts what they considered the "original sin" of our COVID response.

To my surprise, there was strong unison: Our testing fiasco was the early failure that made every other failure worse and every hard decision harder.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
With more and faster tests, the U.S. would have benefited, at least a little, in almost every thinkable capacity: We would have had greater and faster epidemiological knowledge, less stringent lockdowns, a more open economy, and fewer overall deaths.
Read 4 tweets
15 Mar
Seeing lots of people RT this and similarly gloomy analysis about how the US won't spend money in the pandemic. It's just wrong.

Many ways to evaluate a nation's response to COVID. But by fiscal impact—spending and tax cuts—U.S. relief is among the biggest in the world.
Here's the IMF global analysis.

imf.org/en/Topics/imf-…

Different countries use a variety of spending, tax,and loan program. But the U.S. fiscal response was the 2nd highest in the world in January—larger than any European country—before counting then entire Biden relief bill.
There is an unhelpfully doom-pilled approach to Twitter, where the game isn't to figure out true stuff, but rather to sign on with one's most pessimistic and disappointed opinion about the world, irrespective of accuracy, then collect some commiseration tokens and peace.
Read 4 tweets

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