Scotland: NRS all-cause mortality data, week 12
1. Overall
2021 continues to develop as normal year, in the range of normal mortality. We continue slightly better than 2018 in terms of overall mortality rate. Nothing unusual going on.
2. Overall
More classic style showing week be week versus normal range. We can see the entire year has been within the normal range, and the most recent 3 weeks have been below average, and near the bottom end of the range.
No alarming signal at all this year.
3. Excess mortality by cause
Mortality classified as covid is offset by lower than normal mortality in cancer, heart disease, respiratory etc. Essentially it appears we are wrongly / overly classifying other causes of death as covid (or heart dieases etc suddenly better)
4. Excess mortality by location of death
Mortality in care homes continues lower than prior years (could be lower occupancy), and mortality in hospitals also lower than normal. Sadly mortality at home well above average, people choosing / having to pass away there.
5. Mortality by council area (a)
Lower is mortality per 100k population, 2021 versus 2020. The upper chart shows the excess compared with covid deaths.
There is no relationship at all between where Scotland sees high mortality, and where we have mortality classed as covid.
5. Mortality by council area (b)
Indeed concerning here is Orkney and Shetland are FAR excess normal mortality, but no covid. Why? It might explain why general mortality has been higher - restriction of healthcare?
Equally S.Ayr high ‘covid’, but mortality way lower than normal.
6. Mortality by council area correlation
Scatterplot showing the relationship between mortality higher and lower than normal, and deaths classed as covid. If we are saving lives this should be a strong relationship - excess only by covid.
There is no relationship at all.
7. Mortality by age
This compares mortality by age group for 2021 versus 2020 (5 year average would be better, but no data on that).
Intriguingly very young continue better than normal. Worst excess is middle-aged. Elderly were high, but steadily improving week by week.

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