My column today is all about how resistant public officials have been to say things, or do things, that we are pretty sure will help, and are pretty sure are true, until a very high level of data is reached. And this is another example: nymag.com/intelligencer/…
That the vaccines were going to reduce transmission is something that every expert I've spoken to has been basically sure of, but very few would say because the studies weren't in. But that meant months of playing down the benefits of vaccines.
But now:

“Vaccinated people do not carry the virus — they don’t get sick,” Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC, told MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow on Tuesday. That’s “not just in the clinical trials, but it’s also in real-world data.”
Similarly, the FDA just approved cheap, rapid, at-home, over-the-counter tests based on technology that's been around for quite awhile now.

CDC is launching a huge pilot experiment with them.

Did we really not know enough to move forward sooner?
How much data should regulators and politicians need before they act?

When we're in an emergency like this, should that standard drop?

Is it better to move faster, even if that might lead to errors?

These are big questions, and they still matter: nytimes.com/2021/04/01/opi…

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More from @ezraklein

1 Apr
"Following the science" and "following the existing evidence" are not the same things, but politicians and regulators talk like they are.

Science can’t tell you what it does not yet know, and the virus spreads faster than our knowledge. nytimes.com/2021/04/01/opi…
It’s the job of politicians to weigh the information we have, and the possible benefits of experimentation, against society’s broader goals.

One thing I came to believe while reporting this piece is that politicians have been hiding behind regulators on a lot of these issues.
Regulators will tell you what the evidence that has been submitted to them says. They don't go beyond that. If there are places where society has a good reason, or a pressing need, to take more risk in order to save more lives, that's for politicians to decide, and explain.
Read 6 tweets
31 Mar
I keep thinking about the end of Justice League where Superman asks Bruce Wayne how he saved his mom's foreclosed farmhouse, and Wayne says, "I bought the bank."

Why buy the bank? Why not just buy the house from the bank?
Did the bank president know the farm was owned by Superman's mom, and Batman really needed to repair his relationship with Superman, and so the bank had total leverage over one of the world's richest men?

Because if so, that's awesome. I'd watch that spinoff.
Or is Wayne just a terrible negotiator, or totally wanton with his money?

Even if so, it would take longer to buy a bank than to just buy a house from a bank.

And Alfred seems pretty savvy. He seems like he'd have brought up this "just buy the damn house" option.
Read 7 tweets
29 Mar
I'm interested in the Schumer gambit to squeeze an extra annual reconciliation bill out of the existing rules and I hope it works. But it really underscores what I wrote here. This is such a nuts way for an institution to run. nytimes.com/2021/02/04/opi…
Context on the Schumer gambit: politico.com/newsletters/pl…
Hear me out: What if, instead of two budget reconciliation bills a year, you limited debate on all bills, so you could pass as many bills as you wanted, and they could be written in whatever way you thought best, with 51 votes?
Read 4 tweets
24 Mar
Interesting @kdrum post on the decline of blogs that includes, among other things, this provocative theory for why Google let Reader die, and no other major company picked up RSS effectively. jabberwocking.com/why-have-blog-…
My personal theory of the death of the blogosphere — which is different than the death of blogs, there are still lots of those — is that the blogosphere was built on short links that moved people around, not long essays, and when Twitter disaggregated that, the ecosystem died.
This is also why Substack isn't a replacement for the blogosphere, even if it does feel similar to the best blog posts: that curation and conversation function doesn't translate, both because of subscriber walls and because Twitter just does it better.
Read 6 tweets
23 Mar
I've interviewed @SenSanders many times over the years. But this conversation is, by far, the most optimistic I've heard him. He changed politics, and now he wants to see how far he can push.

You should listen to the whole thing, but a few excerpts:

nytimes.com/2021/03/23/opi…
On the American Rescue Plan:
On how the Republican Party has changed:
Read 6 tweets
18 Mar
"The appetite for larger-scale governmental action could not be more different in 2021. Think of it this way: the Recovery Act was twenty points less popular than Obama. The American Rescue Plan is twenty points more popular than (a pretty popular) Biden."
We can't run the counterfactual but I wouldn't underestimate how much of a role race played in how these bills were seen. Obama was very popular personally, but we know that his presidency led people's views on race to drive their views on all kinds of policy questions.
Read 6 tweets

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