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2 Apr, 5 tweets, 2 min read
A friendly old man lives near me and occasionally comes up to chat. Earlier this year we idly started talking about the stock market and I mentioned how well $TSLA had performed and why I think the company was so promising. Just idle chit chat.

Fast forward to the other day. I..
... am outside working on my greenhouse-trailer and he comes up to chat. He brings up Tesla again, and mentions that the price was down to $600. I smile and mention that one who invested at orders of magnitude lower prices hardly loses sleep over these sort of swings. Then...
...he seemed a little nervous and informs me that, based on what I had told him in our previous chat, he had bought $TSLA at $800, only to see it crash (I had no idea he was thinking about investing).

This is a guy who has never even heard of Model Y or Cybertruck. No clue...
...about FUD, about TSLAQ, any if it. I tekl him that this happens a lot, doubt followed by a "Oh my God, they did it!" spike, and one shouldn't panic sell or FOMO buy. He still sounded nervous, though.

Given these recent quarterly numbers, I look forward to our next chat. :)
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More from @enn_nafnlaus

Nafnlaus Profile picture
11 Mar
Thought: while not applicable to their initial purchases, @elonmusk may eventually end up with sea launch platforms that have no "platform" at all - just a tower.

Consider the new "rocket catching" approach. It's intriguing; it lets you cut a lot of mass off the rocket while...
letting you use as massive of a shock absorption system as you can dream up. Furthermore, a landed rocket cannot fall over. So long as it can navigate into roughly the right place, it's a good landing.

Now let's consider sea launch with a platform.

(1) Arm catches SH ...
(2) Arm rotates, sets it down
(3) Some sort of strongback attaches to it to keep it stable and reconnect GSE.
(4) Arm catches Starship
(5) Arm aligns Starship with SH for remating. SH isn't attached to the tower, so this may take adjustment.
(6) Something connects GSE to Starship
Read 10 tweets
Nafnlaus Profile picture
10 Mar
Hey @Transport_EU, @AdinaValean - exactly why is your
Team Leader for Automated/Connected Vehicles and Safety sharing an attack article sourced from a short seller against a company he's in charge of regulating? linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…

The bias was obvious, but this is blatant
Please tell me that the guy in charge of approving features knows the difference between an SAE level (what the vehicle *makes the driver do*, for whatever regulatory or liability reasons) vs. how good it actually is at driving.
Please tell me that the guy in charge of approving features knows that mandating driver attention for "FSD City Streets" (aka "FSD Beta") has *always been the case*, would have been a shock if it wasn't going to be in wide release, and that "FSD Beta" != "FSD".
Read 6 tweets
Nafnlaus Profile picture
15 Feb
Fascinating read from Jason about the Model S/X range loss issue. My initial take (and apparently his initial take as well) was wrong; I had interpreted charging limits then range loss as being due to new data about degradation with the new Si-bearing anodes, with concerns about
... longevity and fires. The media reporting on fires also affected Jason, misleading him into initially thinking it was an overvoltage issue.

Turns out it was due to sporadic misreadings of the voltage of individual cell groups, and the inability to distinguish them from...
A) legitimate voltage spikes, or B) a stuck MOSFET causing cell misbalancing. With no way to tell if the transients were real, they had to assume they were. Voltages were limited to the peak spike voltage, and the user's range indicator was switched to use the value calculated...
Read 8 tweets
Nafnlaus Profile picture
30 Jan
Tesla's new steering yoke appears to be analogous to an airplane steering yoke. But an airplane's yoke does not only control roll, but also pitch. Indeed, there's the potential for *five* extra axes (up-down, left-right, front-back, & two extra roll axes)

Why do I bring this up?
In normal driving, I expect most drivers to prefer a traditional locked steering position. But we must remember that ***Plaid has three independent motors now***. The car is capable of so much more than traditional handling; it should even be able to do stunts like spin in place.
The degrees of freedom get even more extreme when you get to the Roadster with the SpaceX options package. Now you have *every degree of freedom possible* in terms of maneuvering.

How do you control this with just a roll-only steering wheel? Answer: you can't.
Read 5 tweets
Nafnlaus Profile picture
28 Jan
Honestly, I really want to know *how* they're getting a 0.208 Cd. That's significantly better than a car of this general shape would normally get.

Note that most manufacturers BS about their drag coefficients - but at least thusfar, Teslas usually match their claims in testing.
I wonder if this is all just a long slog of minor improvements, or whether they're implementing any of the long-proposed "cheats" for drag reduction, such as base bleed or suction to maintain flow attachment. I don't see any signs of that, but...
Either way, the claimed Cd is now 90% that of the claimed Cd for the Model 3. I suspect (whether from S not being as good as claimed, or 3 having since improved) that it's closer than that. But either way, it seems they're overcoming Model S's greater cross-sectional area.
Read 5 tweets
Nafnlaus Profile picture
24 Dec 20
The "Meh" Factor Of Lithium Titanate Batteries

So there's been a lot of chatter about @Gfilche's rumours that Apple plans to use a Toshiba lithium titanate battery in their electric vehicle, due out four years from five years ago, and now four years from today.

But what is it?
@LimitingThe gave a pretty good description, but in short, it's an old technology where instead of graphite+silicon, the anode is lithium titanate nanocrystals. These offer a very stable structure with a massive surface area for high power densities and great longevity.
They also, however, are not only very expensive, but are a fundamentally lower voltage chemistry - and lithium intercalation densities are not great either (you have a lot of titanium and oxygen relative to how much lithium you can intercalate).
Read 13 tweets

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