Been digging into the new 2020 ANES release this week, and I got curious as to what might predict negative attitudes toward increasing ballot access. So, I took a look at the ANES items on early voting, voter ID, and felon disenfranchisement. (1/n)
The following analyses look at the full sample, with dummies for racial group. I was especially interested in the role of racial attitudes, so I ran 4 sets of models -- each using a different racial attitude. (2/n)
Bottom line up front: racial attitudes predict opposition to ballot access, even after controlling for ideology, PID, authoritarianism, and perceptions of whether votes are counted fairly. For example, here's what we see for racial resentment: (3/n)
Racial resentment is a problematic measure in many ways, so I tried it with other racial-attitude measures. Here's the same analysis, with a stereotype difference measure, i.e., attributing more neg traits to Black Americans vs White Americans: (4/n)
And here it is with a measure of the degree to which a respondent felt minorities had lots of influence vs Whites (5/n):
Finally, here is the analysis with a measure of the degree to which a respondent felt that Whites were more discriminated against than minorities (6/n):
So, while ideological self-placement has a good deal of predictive power, so do various racial attitudes (net of various covariates). Need to repeat this using only the white subsample; more on that later. (7/7)

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More from @ChrisPolPsych

2 Apr
Here are some results for the white subsample only. Note that the ideology measure = ideological self-placement, so symbolic rather than operational ideology in these models and the earlier ones. (1/n)
Racial resentment, white respondents only: (2/n)
Stereotype difference (i.e., attributing more neg traits to Black Americans vs White Americans), white respondents only: (3/n)
Read 6 tweets
11 Jan
There's nothing wrong with this article; the last line is perhaps the most important. But in terms of the Broader Discourse on this point, a lot of folks seem to have unrealistic expectations of what education & knowledge accomplish. (1/n) washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0…
The general idea is that fancy Ivy League educations mean that folks like Cruz and Hawley should "know better." Putting aside the elitism involved in accepting that premise, there are a number of ways that it us not consistent with what we know about education & knowledge. (2/n)
Following Converse (1964), we've known for a long time that variables like education and knowledge are associated with a stronger rather than weaker tendencies to hew to an ideological worldview. (3/n)
Read 7 tweets
16 Nov 20
Since we're now in another period of center-left hand-wringing about What The Election Results Mean (absent complete data on what actually happened, of course), let me note a few things I believed on the basis of research even before the election. (1/n)
Americans are operationally liberal, but symbolically / philosophically conservative, per Ellis & Stimson and Free & Cantril before them (2/n). amazon.com/Ideology-Ameri…
To some extent, this means that the symbolism of the left -- as valued by elites and activists -- is not what Democrats should lead with or put up front. In a sense, that symbolism is esotericism that many people do not relate to. (3/n)
Read 14 tweets
14 Nov 20
There some decent (though very general) words of caution in this thread. My concern is that people are already drawing big strategic and ideological conclusions from aggregate returns, (flawed) exit polls, and anecdotes. (1/n)
It's possible that Ds suffered downballot & localized losses because a few Dems in Congress call themselves 'socialists' or because 'defund the police' was an ill-advised slogan, but we don't know that yet. (2/n)
This could be as simple as the electorate being diff when Trump is on the ballot ('16, '20) vs when he is not ('18). A lot of the House seats Ds got in '18 were pretty marginal/red, and Trump's presence could have shifted things just enough to make things tougher for Ds. (3/n)
Read 5 tweets
12 Oct 20
This article's framing is a testament to the weird way elite political actors and commentators talk about religiosity, effectively as a brand that has utility to some & disutility to others. (1/4) nytimes.com/2020/10/11/us/…
For all the thematic talk here of a 'new conservatism' that is 'rooted in faith,' the article pretty clearly notes that the dominant influence on Barrett's actual jurisprudence is the same 'originalist' philosophy as most other right-leaning judges. (2/4)
I mean, there's a whole section in there where she more or less talks about her discovery of originalism the way the college-rock artists of my generation talk about the time they first heard the Velvet Underground or something. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
6 Jul 20
This piece from @OsitaNwanevu is well-worth the read, and I agree with most of it. (1/n) newrepublic.com/article/158346…
An ancilliary point I'd make is the kind of liberalism discussed in the piece is deeply detached from reality, and even utopian in some respects. (2/n)
One thing I have in mind here is the expectation that an 'ideal' politics should be free of concerns about group identity and group interest and instead animated by 'rational' individuals exploring ideas. (3/n)
Read 22 tweets

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