A lot is said about achieving simplicity in trading. How we need to keep our strategies simple, with objectively defined entry & exits, position sizing, risk management etc
But if simple things work so well, why does one naturally complicate them in the first place?
1/
To answer this we need to understand simplicity.
Is a Tendulkar straight drive which looks so simple, actually that simple?
Is a surgery which looks complicated, actually that difficult for an experienced surgeon?
Same goes for all the professionals in their fields.
2/
To create a simple profitable system requires lot of practice. We need to complicate things 1st inorder to understand what is essential & what is not. If on the onset we start resisting a little complication, then it only means we are not willing to go the distance.
3/
To progress, we need to explore a little & get out of our comfort zones. If we are so adamant to not complicate things, then it only stands in our way to advancement.
The problem actually starts when we desire simple answers to not so simple questions.
4/
Even if you attend a seminar of a guru selling simple strategy, you can't perceive it totally. Because it's not your hustle. You've simply took a shortcut, to reduce your learning curve. But since no strategy works all the time, at the 1st instance of a dd, you'll reject it.
5/
Need to know the ins & outs of what we are dealing with, to get reasonable long term success in trading. It looks easy on twitter, where everyone is making money. But reality is different. The moment you think you understand something, market shows another scenario.
6/
Only change is constant & we need to embrace it. Something working perfectly right now doesn't mean it will work forever. That's why borrowed knowledge doesn't last for long. Need to improve your own cognitive skills to get fresh original ideas & work on them.
7/
A simple strategy doesn't necessarily be as simple. A complex strategy doesn't necessarily be as complex once mastered. With enough practice complex becomes simple.
Our goal should not be to look for only simple strategies, but to understand in depth & keep simplifying.
8/
"What could be more complicated than a rose for someone who wants to understand it? What could be simpler for someone who wants nothing? The complexity of thinking, the simplicity of beholding.” ~ Andre Sponville
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This thread is about how premiums behave in different setups. Though identifying them early takes years of practice, being mindful of what's happening in the present can give us an edge. So we can be better prepared with our strategies.(1/n)
1) Gentle decay in premiums/ less delta moves
Such days are pure delight for option sellers. The adjustment cost is less because of less delta moves, so vega realisation is more. Usually such days are plentiful when Vix is below 15. (2/n)
2) Decay with High delta moves
Such days are common when Vix is high. Since delta moves are more, vega realisation is less because of high adjustment cost. Those who don't adjust their positions usually miss out on it's profit potential. (3/n)
This is Master thread of all the useful tweets (imo) that i have shared in the past. Going through them may provide some knowledge on options, volatility, greeks & trading psychology. Will keep updating in the future.
Friday's specially after the introduction of weeklies have become very unpredictable for option sellers IMO. Usually I'm able to forsee a volatile move & if not then through hindsight analysis I'm able to understand how a spike manifested, which ultimately adds to my system.(1/n)
But days like 14th Aug'20 when everything is going super fine & all of a sudden within seconds huge vol spike occurs is baffling. There are many such Friday's before when such moves have manifested without any prior sign of volatility (according to me). (2/n)
What i have understood is that since current weekly has max liquidity & Friday is the first day of a new series, the positions are not mature enough. So the operator can afford to shake up things. I haven't seen such spikes coming on Tue-Thus without prior signal. (3/n)
24/08/15: Nifty gap down 250 points & another 250 after that. Previous few months return gone, but since I'm quick to take my losses, was saved from ruin. Before that my only edge in option selling was adjustments & my forever edge of following PA. (1/n)
I soon realised that theta decay with sound adjustments is not an edge, which i earlier thought was & which gave me good returns over the years. After that i went deeper in understanding volatility behaviour, how/where it manifests & all the discrepancies in option chain. (2/n)
With finding edge in logistics i mean how to keep the greeks in check, SL in place & optimum ways of adjustments with minimum slippages. So the main aim here is to write theta without following vol behaviour & having any actual knowledge of what's going on in the markets. (3/n)
Many traders don't indulge in understanding GREEKS because they think they are very complicated.
There are 4 primary greeks:
Delta
Gamma
Theta
Vega
In my experience, understanding DELTA is enough to take benefit of greeks.(1/n)
Delta measures the rate of change of options price based on the directional movement of the underlying.
So this means we can know in advance (theoretically) how much an option will move with the underlying & so we can prepare our strategies accordingly. (2/n)
Value of delta varies between 0 & 1 for calls and -1 & 0 for puts. This figure tells how much an option price will change, when the underlying moves 1 point. So example a delta of .2 of call indicates that for every 1 point change in the underlying, the price will move .2 (3/n)
These days the most preferred strategy for option sellers due to improved margins is IRONFLY. It's essentially a short straddle with long strangle. Long strangle acting as 'WINGS', which help in capping the unlimited risk associated with a short straddle.(1/n)
You can also view the position as a combination of Cal & Put credit spreads, if that makes it more easy for you.
There are 3 important things to understand while trading this strategy:
1) Initial size of the Wings 2) Risk Management 3) Adjustments
(2/n)
Since we are selling an ATM straddle, the 1st question is how far our wings should be? Ideally i sell .50 delta straddle & buy .20 or .10 OTM strangle, depending on my view on volatility. So the distance of wings depends on the IV setup. Higher the IVs, greater the distance.(3/n)