Thread by @Danjsalt

There are many in the UK who think that the UK is on a glide path to rejoin the EU via a series of deals which will move us closer to the block - let's talk about the reality of the situation in a simple thread

1/

One of the big "losers" from Brexit was going to be the city of London - this was never going to happen but has now been proven to be nonsense - the city is moving on and now has a taste of life without EU regulation

They won't want to go back now or in the future

2/

Trade is already moving - making membership far less valuable than before - whereas much of business campaigned to stay - they will within a few years hate to rejoin even more - more uncertainty and disruptions to work through

No chance

3/

Furthermore with us leaving the single market and custom union their new opportunities will come from outside the EU - most of world growth isn't going to come from Europe - we are simply not that big an economic zone anymore

Rejoin and lose those opportunities - good luck

4/

The UK is going to within 12 months or less join CPTPP - this will further divert trade away from the EU but increase external opportunities

5/

This will be combined with trade deals with Australia and Canada and probably some work on non tariff barriers with the USA - again trade moves and again new opportunities

6/

But this will mean we will not be able to align now or in the future with the EU's SPS framework - why would we want to as it is unscientific and would be used to tie us to their agricultural exports

7/

These moves on trade are going to form the bedrock of the UK's new geostrategic outlook - high levels of cooperation with Anglosphere especially on defence and twinned with close cooperation with Japan and moves with India - we will also join the Asian Quad shortly

8/

This enhanced defence cooperation will shortly enlarge with some partners to include development and procurement - Canada, Australia and Japan will be key to this move though perhaps not all partners on everything

9/

Politically within the UK the European vaccine fiasco and their aggressive attitude towards the UK is only just starting to land on the public consciousness - it is there though and is reflected in the polls - people strangely don't like being attacked for being successful

10/

Labour is still struggling within the red wall (blue wall) because it is seen to neither like the working class or the country - and so Starmer is desperate to move on from the EU referendum as quickly as possible

11/

This is happening at the same time as the leave / remain tribes are breaking down - it's not politics as normal - it's morphing into something else - a more pure version of open Vs closed cultures or anywheres Vs somewheres (Goodhart)

12/

The problem is anywheres are on the back foot and make up a declining percentage of the population - this trend is accelerating globally as people look to the nation state for physical and cultural security in a dangerous world - Covid accelerated this trend

13/

This means that rather than increasing support for freer migration - the coming period is going to see increasing support for tighter and better managed migration - this is especially true when it comes to illegal migration

14/

This pulling up the drawbridge mentality will be exacerbated by the coming euro crisis - which will put to bed the idea of the EU as a global actor - many will look across and think "We don't want anything to do with that"

15/

Especially when coming this summer the numbers of migrants in the Med and Balkans surges in response to the global economic downturn and the fact the EU is seen as easy to get to - they don't have an answer yet and everyone can see it

16/

This all means that within a few years even if Labour were to win the next election they are going to struggle to move us closer to the EU

And I'll summarise below

17/

- City doesn't want alignment
- Trade will have moved
- Business won't want the uncertainty
- SPS alignment would potentially cut through CA, AU, US and CPTPP efforts
- Knock on effect on geostrategic standing
- Public opinion is moving in the other direction

18/

- Labour can't win the red wall with a pro EU position
- FOM is going to be toxic
- The EU will be a mess

So that leaves a fluffy treaty on diplomatic coordination or maybe law and order - neither of which would help Labour in the north or would satisfy the rejoin crowd

19/

Rejoin would require overturning it's isall of the above, rewriting massive amounts of laws and winning the public around to paying 40 - 50 billion into the EU again.

That will never happen.

20/

It's why the Brexit deniers fought tooth and nail to keep us in - even to the point of nearly destroying our democracy - they knew that once out we would stay out and so overturning a legitimate vote was their only option.

21/