NEWS: The Trump operation refunded $122 million — more than 10% — of what it raised online in 2020.

Prechecked boxes withdrew $$$ weekly from unwitting supporters. Scores were ensnared. Fraud claims to banks soared.

My investigation into what happened:
nytimes.com/2021/04/03/us/…
The Trump operation issued dramatically more online refunds than Biden (campaigns + parties + joint committees) in 2020:

Trump: $122 million and 10.7% of WinRed $$$
vs.
Biden: $20.7 million and 2.2% of ActBlue $$$

Answering why begins with yellow boxes…
nytimes.com/2021/04/03/us/…
Trump made widespread use of prechecked boxes to automatically enroll donors into repeating donations — unless they opted out.

In Sept., as Trump faced a cash crunch, those recurring donations began withdrawing *every week*.

Many donated unknowingly:
nytimes.com/2021/04/03/us/…
What exactly did those prechecked boxes look like?

Well, as the campaign’s finances worsened they became dizzyingly complex. Here is an example from October of the text a Trump donor would have to wade through — and uncheck — to not give multiple times.
nytimes.com/2021/04/03/us/…
You can actually see the impact of these prechecked boxes on Trump's refund rate with this graphic nytimes.com/2021/04/03/us/…
These Trump/WinRed refunds coincided with a surge of donors calling their credit cards to say they were victims of fraud.

“It started to go absolutely wild,” said a Wells Fargo fraud investigator. “It just became a pattern,” said one at Capital One. nytimes.com/2021/04/03/us/…
Officials at multiple financial institutions who dealt with complaints estimated WinRed was, at peak, 1-3% of volume — a figure confirmed by one of the nation’s larger credit-card issuers.

That's huge, considering size of U.S. credit card economy.
nytimes.com/2021/04/03/us/…
Recurring money helped Trump at key juncture.

Trump’s main campaign account issued $22.8 million in WinRed refunds after 11/3. That sum is more than half the $43.6 million it had in the bank on 10/15.

(Note: Not all refunds = recurred $)
nytimes.com/2021/04/03/us/…
I should say here that reporting this story was aided by the data wizardry of @rachel_shorey, who in particular helped break down some insanely large WinRed filings. nytimes.com/2021/04/03/us/…
One interesting thing: Prechecked recurring payment boxes are basically prohibited in Europe as a consumer protection. (See Article 22 here: eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…)

In U.S., efforts to reign in "dark patterns" have been focused on privacy, not payments. nytimes.com/2021/04/03/us/…
Trump campaign emphasized its 0.87% of transactions on WinRed had been disputed by donors with their banks.

That is about 200,000 donations — subject to formal disputes. Totaling $19.7 million.

(Context: WinRed generally gave refunds to avoid disputes)
nytimes.com/2021/04/03/us/…
By the way, the total amount and % of money the Trump operation refunded will almost certainly wind up higher than the existing data shows.

The operation was refunding an average of $720,000 *per day* in December.
nytimes.com/2021/04/03/us/…
Put another way, the Trump/RNC operation issued more online refunds in *December 2020* than the Biden/DNC operation issued in all of 2019 and 2020. nytimes.com/2021/04/03/us/…
WinRed, a for-profit firm, said it keeps its cut of refunded donations. That would be worth ~$5 million (tho big chunk to CC fees).

Last fall, as refunds surged, WinRed added a line to pricing page: “Fees cannot be refunded if the donation is refunded.” nytimes.com/2021/04/03/us/…
While this story is focused on the Trump operation, I would note that these tools and tactics are now being adopted across the GOP ecosystem.

Weekly recurring prechecked boxes were used in the Georgia runoffs, for instance.

Predictably, refunds spiked. nytimes.com/2021/04/03/us/…
That's it (for now). But if you are a donor who wound up in the Trump recurring program, or had any other issues, my DMs are open and my email address is in my bio.

Thanks for reading (to the end of the thread! but also hopefully the end of the story?) nytimes.com/2021/04/03/us/…

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More from @ShaneGoldmacher

15 Mar
New Siena poll on Cuomo:

35% Should resign immediately
50% Should not

Caveat: Poll was in field up to Friday — the day Schumer, Gillibrand and NY delegation all called for him to step down
The Cuomo 2022 numbers are much bleaker for him

34% said they would prefer Cuomo
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Here are the crosstabs scri.siena.edu/wp-content/upl…
Read 4 tweets
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Okay so yes you should be watching the AOC livestream
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"I have never been quieter in my entire life."
A twist: Person in her office, she says, declares they are a Capitol police officer, but she says "it doesn't feel right."

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nytimes.com/2021/01/23/us/…
I'll thread the three Alvin ads, in order.

This first one opened Warnock's runoff ad campaign.

It aimed to inoculate him from the coming attacks — and Warnock team was surprised that it briefly aired unanswered. nytimes.com/2021/01/23/us/…
The second Alvin ad was recorded 11/13 and released just ahead of Thanksgiving.

@hakeemjefferson described the scenery here as evoking a “white aesthetic” as the Warnock campaign sought to blunt Loeffler's attacks.
nytimes.com/2021/01/23/us/…
Read 5 tweets
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Roll call still open.
Now at 98 votes to reject from House Republicans, compared to 57 to certify

Roll call still open.
105-68 with 36 not voting.

So it will be a majority of the House GOP.
Read 7 tweets
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“I was shaken to the core,” Mitt Romney said of today's events.
“Now we gather due to a selfish man’s injured pride”
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