Gopal Kavalireddi Profile picture
Apr 4, 2021 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
A thread on #Chemicals Sector in India:
When I did a 'lazy Sunday' data crunch in Sep 2020 (), of all the sectors that performed well over the last 29 yrs, broken down in to three decades, there were some interesting insights.

Barring the period between...
1991-2000, the next 2 decades saw stocks from chemical sector perform very well. Of the 973 stocks that gave >100% returns (simple returns: no div. reinvestments) between 2000-2010, 101 were from the chemical sector.
Likewise, between 2010-2020, 82 chemical stocks topped charts.
Just yesterday, I checked for all BSE Companies with 10 Yr CAGR >25% & found 189 stocks, of which 41 stocks were from Chemical sector. A quick glance through the list brings a smile to my face, as many of these were good quality stocks with decent credentials - Portfolio worthy.
Over last 2 decades, India has made large strides across manufacturing, and chemicals has been a great contributor - 6th in the world & 4th in Asia in terms of global sale of chemicals, accounting for 2.5% of the world’s global chemical sales (PwC Rpt).

Stats are a revelation.
Market size and growth prospects: #chemicals

- India’s chemical sector was estimated to be worth $178bn in FY20 & has potential to reach $300bn (~9.2% CAGR) by FY25.

- In terms of demand, the industry has grown at approximately 1.3X India’s avg GDP growth in the last 5 yrs.
India ranks 6th in imports & 9th in exports of global chemicals & chemical products (w/o pharma prdts).

Imports increased at 5.4% CAGR (FY16-FY20) with petrochemical intermediates at over 30% in total imports.

OTOH, export of chemicals & chemical products grew at 7.2% CAGR.
Specialty chemicals account for >50% of chemical exports, dominated by agrochemicals, dyes & pigments.

This segment grew at ~11.7% (value terms) in last 5 yrs, & has continued demand from construction, auto, packaging, water treatment, home & personal care, food processing etc.
Sector trends:
- Customer preference for ESG compliant products
- India per capita consumption to double by 2025, from the current 0.1X of global avg.
- Cos implementing digitalization initiatives & tools in supply chains, demand planning, pricing strategies.
- China+1 factor.
Projects in petchem segment (Source: PwC)

In specialty segment, lot of value addition expected.
APIs, KSMs, Surfactants, water treatment along with battery materials & chemicals are demand drivers going ahead.

Tremendous opportunities for growth in next decade.

The end
🙏

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More from @gvkreddi

Aug 15, 2022
#VIP Industries
#Q1FY23: Results, Concall, Investor Ppt, Stock Price

YOY: Net sales:⬆️179%; PAT:⬆️2280%
QoQ: Net sales:⬆️64%; PAT:⬆️813%
EPS: ₹4.88 vs ₹0.18 YoY vs ₹0.88 QoQ
Coming of a low base, still a good qtr
Highest revenue qtr ever
+5% growth over Q1 FY20

(Cont'd)
- New launches: 38 in Luggage & 127 in Backpacks
- Entered 68 new towns; added 21 & signed 23 more stores
- The Wedding Collection (Vaani Kapoor), Change The World (Varun Dhawan) campaigns +ve
- EBITDA: 18.3%; Cost controlled; PBT: ₹100cr
- Hard Luggage: 46% of Revenue

(Cont'd)
- Own & control manufacturing: 79%
- Volume growth: 8% on FY20 base
- Q1 Headwinds: 24% inflation, 90% of loss of biz from Future Group store closure, impacting 15% revenues
- Gross Margin: 49.9% vs 53.3% (Q4FY23) due to 4.9% higher raw material costs, but price⬆️ 2.1%

(Cont'd)
Read 7 tweets
Feb 1, 2022
Summary #UnionBudget2022

• FY23, planned expenditure = 39.45 Lakh Cr; planned revenue = 22.84 Lakh Cr
• FY22 fiscal deficit: 6.90%; FY23 estimated at 6.40%
• PIL outlay of 30 Lakh Cr, aims at 60 Lakh new jobs
• FY23 divestment at 65,000cr.
• FY22 GDP at 9.27%.

#Budget2022
• New scheme for branding promotion of Millet Product & domestic production of oil seeds
• Emergency Credit Line Guarantee to continue till 31st Mar FY23 with new outlay of 50 Lakh Cr
• Inter Operation between Post Office & Bank Account
• Digital Banking Unit in 75 districts
• E Passport with embedded chip to be introduced
• 68% of defense capex budget for domestic firms
• Capex 7.50 Lakh Cr in FY23 (up by 35.4%)
• Sovereign Green Bond introduction for energy & allied sector funding
• GIFT IFSC – International Arbitration Tribunal to be set up
Read 8 tweets
May 6, 2021
#TataConsumer Q4FY21 - Thread

#Q4FY21 Revenue: 3037cr, up 26% yoy
Contribution:
India Beverages:1205cr; Rev. growth: 60%; Vol growth: 23%
India Foods: 641cr; 22%; 18%
US Coffee: 313cr; 5%; -2%
Int. Tea: 515cr; 2%; -7%
Foodservice: 47cr; -34%; -18%
Tata Coffee: 280cr; 31%; 31%
Financials:
Revenue:⬆️26%, 3037cr
EBITDA:⬆️1%, 317cr
EBITDA Mar: 10.4%;⬇️260bps
PBT:⬆️6% at 262cr
PBT Mar: 8.6%;⬇️170bps
Cons.PAT:⬆️161% at 74cr; +750bps Margin
EPS:⬆️170bps, at Rs.0.58
Net cash: 2421cr
Dividend: 4.05/share
India business good, Intl biz soft, tea inflation high.
Portfolio:
India
Tata Salt: Largest salt brand
Tata Tea: 2nd Largest tea brand
Himalayan: #1 natural mineral water brand
Tata Sampann: Leading brand in pulses.

International
8oclock: 4th largest R&G coffee brand in USA
Tetley Tea: 4th largest tea brand in UK & largest in Canada.
Read 10 tweets
May 4, 2021
#verified resources -Delhi NCR

Oxygen Refill Only Delhi-NCR 9324156652
Tehseen Poonawalla' Foundation

Oxygen Cylinder Delhi-NCR 9999979100
Rohini sector 13

Oxygen concentrator 9810152194
Bipap oxygen concentrator, Mr. Ahluwalia

Oxygen concentrator Delhi 9810176572

Contd..
Cont'd..
Oxygen concentrator Delhi 7290092744
Portea Oxygen concentrator

Empty Oxygen Cylinder 9650715529

Oxygen Refill Only Delhi 8146020867
Rohini, Delhi, Sector 2 Bawana industrial area O Block.

Oxygen Cylinder Delhi-NCR 8826573407
Paras (Kalkaji)

Cont'd...
Oxygen Cylinder Delhi-NCR 8810311034
Aastha (Fbd)

Oxygen Cylinder Delhi-NCR 7865095786
oxygen providers (Daryganj)

Oxygen Cylinder Delhi-NCR 8130553334, 8130533335 Aastha healthcare (Noida)

Oxygen Cylinder Delhi-NCR 9310031095 JM gases (Faridabad)

Cont'd...
Read 4 tweets
Feb 1, 2021
A thread on #UnionBudget2021
Will try to cover as much as possible...

Speech starts amid slogans, Madam Finance Minister goes ahead!
Explaining health crisis (previous 8 mth review of all mini budgets commences)

#BudgetSession
Total estimate of all relief provided in mini budgets = 27.1 lakh crore, ~13% of GDP...(Actual cash outgo is a lot less)

Quote: Rabindranath Tagore (WB elections in focus)
Analogy: Team India's success in Australia - Youth having abundant potential.

Lowest death rates of Covid.
Earlier contractions typical to India, this time, contraction is of a global nature. (Not our problem alone).

But we will still provide relief measures for the economy...
Read 32 tweets
Nov 12, 2020
Recap in progress... #FinanceMinister

There is strong recovery in economy
Covid cases, fatality rate easing
Stock market capitalization at record high
Forex reserves at $560 bn
Energy consumption see 12% growth in Oct

Note: Only English notes will be provided, no translation😎
GST collections good, Bank credit improves by 5.1%, FDI inflows see 13% rise.
RBI predicts the possibility of a strong recovery by Q3, 1 quarter ahead of expectations.

Moody's revises India GDP forecast for:

CY20 to -8.9% from -9.6% earlier.
CY21 to 8.6% from 8.1% earlier.
Progress of announcements made during #AtmaNirbharBharat 1.0, 2.0

Recap on important ones only😀
- Inter-state portability of ration card achieved, covering 68.6 cr beneficiaries, across 28 states
- 1.5 cr monthly transactions on intra-state portable ration cards
Img: CNBC TV18
Read 20 tweets

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