), of all the sectors that performed well over the last 29 yrs, broken down in to three decades, there were some interesting insights.
Barring the period between...
1991-2000, the next 2 decades saw stocks from chemical sector perform very well. Of the 973 stocks that gave >100% returns (simple returns: no div. reinvestments) between 2000-2010, 101 were from the chemical sector.
Likewise, between 2010-2020, 82 chemical stocks topped charts.
Just yesterday, I checked for all BSE Companies with 10 Yr CAGR >25% & found 189 stocks, of which 41 stocks were from Chemical sector. A quick glance through the list brings a smile to my face, as many of these were good quality stocks with decent credentials - Portfolio worthy.
Over last 2 decades, India has made large strides across manufacturing, and chemicals has been a great contributor - 6th in the world & 4th in Asia in terms of global sale of chemicals, accounting for 2.5% of the world’s global chemical sales (PwC Rpt).
- India’s chemical sector was estimated to be worth $178bn in FY20 & has potential to reach $300bn (~9.2% CAGR) by FY25.
- In terms of demand, the industry has grown at approximately 1.3X India’s avg GDP growth in the last 5 yrs.
India ranks 6th in imports & 9th in exports of global chemicals & chemical products (w/o pharma prdts).
Imports increased at 5.4% CAGR (FY16-FY20) with petrochemical intermediates at over 30% in total imports.
OTOH, export of chemicals & chemical products grew at 7.2% CAGR.
Specialty chemicals account for >50% of chemical exports, dominated by agrochemicals, dyes & pigments.
This segment grew at ~11.7% (value terms) in last 5 yrs, & has continued demand from construction, auto, packaging, water treatment, home & personal care, food processing etc.
Sector trends:
- Customer preference for ESG compliant products
- India per capita consumption to double by 2025, from the current 0.1X of global avg.
- Cos implementing digitalization initiatives & tools in supply chains, demand planning, pricing strategies.
- China+1 factor.
Projects in petchem segment (Source: PwC)
In specialty segment, lot of value addition expected.
APIs, KSMs, Surfactants, water treatment along with battery materials & chemicals are demand drivers going ahead.
Tremendous opportunities for growth in next decade.
The end
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YOY: Net sales:⬆️179%; PAT:⬆️2280%
QoQ: Net sales:⬆️64%; PAT:⬆️813%
EPS: ₹4.88 vs ₹0.18 YoY vs ₹0.88 QoQ
Coming of a low base, still a good qtr
Highest revenue qtr ever
+5% growth over Q1 FY20
(Cont'd)
- New launches: 38 in Luggage & 127 in Backpacks
- Entered 68 new towns; added 21 & signed 23 more stores
- The Wedding Collection (Vaani Kapoor), Change The World (Varun Dhawan) campaigns +ve
- EBITDA: 18.3%; Cost controlled; PBT: ₹100cr
- Hard Luggage: 46% of Revenue
(Cont'd)
- Own & control manufacturing: 79%
- Volume growth: 8% on FY20 base
- Q1 Headwinds: 24% inflation, 90% of loss of biz from Future Group store closure, impacting 15% revenues
- Gross Margin: 49.9% vs 53.3% (Q4FY23) due to 4.9% higher raw material costs, but price⬆️ 2.1%
• New scheme for branding promotion of Millet Product & domestic production of oil seeds
• Emergency Credit Line Guarantee to continue till 31st Mar FY23 with new outlay of 50 Lakh Cr
• Inter Operation between Post Office & Bank Account
• Digital Banking Unit in 75 districts
• E Passport with embedded chip to be introduced
• 68% of defense capex budget for domestic firms
• Capex 7.50 Lakh Cr in FY23 (up by 35.4%)
• Sovereign Green Bond introduction for energy & allied sector funding
• GIFT IFSC – International Arbitration Tribunal to be set up
#Q4FY21 Revenue: 3037cr, up 26% yoy
Contribution:
India Beverages:1205cr; Rev. growth: 60%; Vol growth: 23%
India Foods: 641cr; 22%; 18%
US Coffee: 313cr; 5%; -2%
Int. Tea: 515cr; 2%; -7%
Foodservice: 47cr; -34%; -18%
Tata Coffee: 280cr; 31%; 31%
Financials:
Revenue:⬆️26%, 3037cr
EBITDA:⬆️1%, 317cr
EBITDA Mar: 10.4%;⬇️260bps
PBT:⬆️6% at 262cr
PBT Mar: 8.6%;⬇️170bps
Cons.PAT:⬆️161% at 74cr; +750bps Margin
EPS:⬆️170bps, at Rs.0.58
Net cash: 2421cr
Dividend: 4.05/share
India business good, Intl biz soft, tea inflation high.
Portfolio:
India
Tata Salt: Largest salt brand
Tata Tea: 2nd Largest tea brand
Himalayan: #1 natural mineral water brand
Tata Sampann: Leading brand in pulses.
International
8oclock: 4th largest R&G coffee brand in USA
Tetley Tea: 4th largest tea brand in UK & largest in Canada.
There is strong recovery in economy
Covid cases, fatality rate easing
Stock market capitalization at record high
Forex reserves at $560 bn
Energy consumption see 12% growth in Oct
Note: Only English notes will be provided, no translation😎
GST collections good, Bank credit improves by 5.1%, FDI inflows see 13% rise.
RBI predicts the possibility of a strong recovery by Q3, 1 quarter ahead of expectations.
Moody's revises India GDP forecast for:
CY20 to -8.9% from -9.6% earlier.
CY21 to 8.6% from 8.1% earlier.