Few places in the world have suffered more losses from COVID than New York.
4 factors for disconnect below in cases and deaths:
-Health system not overwhelmed
-Better treatments
-More testing = milder cases detected
-Some are mild reinfections in people who already had COVID
4 factors for disconnect below in cases and deaths:
-Health system not overwhelmed
-Better treatments
-More testing = milder cases detected
-Some are mild reinfections in people who already had COVID
One reason why I think immunity is playing a role is that the reduction in deaths with second wave seems to depend on how high the first wave was.
It's a complicated argument, but my summary after looking at this is that undiagnosed reinfections probably exist quite a bit more than we initially thought but they do not have the natural history of COVID for the first time: Much milder due to better prepared immune system.
This has some implications for how vaccine effect will play out. Once most people have been vaccinated, an increasing proportion of new infections will likely be in the vaccinated, and I think the clinical course will be like the flu or common cold; deaths will be very low.
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