Where there’s political instability, terrorism or civil war, there’s always organised crime.

They feed off each other.

People saying the rioting in NI is “just” drugs gangs aren’t making the slam-dunk argument they think they are.

In fact, they’re plain wrong. /1.
Brexit has destabilised NI.

We’re seeing the evolving, direct consequences of a deeply flawed, terrifyingly dangerous policy.

Unless there’s a sharp UK government policy reversal, there’ll be a tragedy.

And it won’t just affect NI. /2. End

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More from @AndrewPRLevi

5 Apr
Brexit can only “succeed” if the EU’s destroyed👇

Europe’s dominated, & the world heavily influenced, by the EU.

2nd biggest economy. Aid superpower. 2nd in defence/security. Global standard setter.

A departing member’s a minnow at EU mercy. Unless the EU no longer exists./1.
Brexiters & their backers have minimal capacity to bring about EU apocalypse.

Yet Brexit’s failure, as a supposed strategic project for boosting the UK’s geopolitical & economic position, is guaranteed & starkly visible if the EU continues. /2.
Which explains much of the prevalent, increasingly shrill, emotionally needy anti-EU rhetoric. And curious features of Brexit which appear consciously to price in abject failure. /3.
Read 9 tweets
30 Mar
Look, I know it’s too much to ask, in some cases at least, that political candidates have a passing familiarity with history or major foreign languages. But, with all due respect, you’d think someone who’s had as many opportunities in life as @LozzaFox would. But no ... a🧵/1.
Mr Fox’s call for freedom translates well into German. A cynic might say he’s aware of this history & has gone ahead in spite - or even because - of it. I’d like to give him the benefit of the doubt. I’ll assume ignorance. /2.
Ah, you object, but that was about “freeing” a country from its shackles, prohibitions & evil leaders. Not a capital city. A different point, surely?

Well, no. And, in any case 👇 /3.
Read 6 tweets
27 Mar
.@DavidGHFrost says the NIP needs consent of “all of the people” in NI.

This is as close as HM Govt has come to admitting its Brexit deal is incompatible with the GFA/BA.

It’s attempting to put lipstick on a pig. Which won’t work.

What next?

A 🧵/1.

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…
In the short term, there’s no choice but strain all of @BorisJohnson’s sinews to ensure the best possible relationship with the EU & the smoothest possible functioning of the NIP. /2.
But we shouldn’t imagine that tinkering, including the major step of an SPS (Sanitary & Phytosanitary) agreement with the EU - if that’s available, given UK sovereigntism & EU “cherry picking” concerns - can result in anything other than a dangerously unstable arrangement. /3.
Read 14 tweets
24 Mar
A brief history of the last 70 years of 🇩🇪 - 🇬🇧 relations. Short 🧵/1.
Many Germans, including much of the diplomatic establishment, felt like this about 🇬🇧. Often despite considerable provocation, especially in the English tabloids. /2.
Some, usually only in private, but then quite vehemently, had a different perspective on 🇬🇧.

But still, with 🇺🇸 in charge, even those 🇩🇪 sceptics felt able to work extremely closely with 🇬🇧. /3.
Read 8 tweets
24 Mar
UK-German (& EU) relations are on the brink of a potentially precipitate descent.

Triggered by vaccines. But due to deeper, Brexit-induced forces.

It’s worth reflecting carefully, again, on the implications of a recent public rebuke from @GermanAmbUK to @DavidGHFrost👇/1.
Two quick notes:

(a) following UK, German & wider EU reporting today is genuinely terrifying. Unless the UK can find a way to reintegrate itself into one of the two mission critical components of the Euro-Atlantic alliance - the EU - & the EU to accept it, .../2.
... we’re in serious trouble.

This isn’t about Bridlington Bangers to Belfast, or other such trivialising tropes used by some UK ministers.

And, if I were @SecBlinken’s chief of staff, I’d have this dossier, with options for US intervention, on his desk today; /3.
Read 8 tweets
19 Mar
The Great Man ... Image
... the Evil One ... Image
... the deaths:

🇬🇧 126,000 pop. 67M

🇪🇺 577,000 pop. 515M *

🇬🇧 deaths per capita 168% of 🇪🇺*

*EU27 & other EEA
Read 5 tweets

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