Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/10 - USA. Apr 05 to Apr 11-
#COVID19 situation is safe (green) in Texas; improving (orange) in Alaska, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia; and plateauing/deteriorating (red, R<0.9) elsewhere.
9 states detailed:
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/10 - Massachusetts is experiencing an increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.08), at high levels of activity, and is decreasing in mortality, although still at high levels, for 7 more days.

3/10 - Vermont is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.16), at high levels, with no expected mortality, for 7 more days.

4/10 - New York is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic acvitivity (R-eff=1.01), at high levels of activity, and is plateauing in mortality, at high levels too, for 7 more days.

5/10 - Pennsylvania is experiencing a rise at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.10), while plateauing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.

6/10 - Florida is experiencing an increase at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.05), and is increasing in mortality, at high levels too, for 7 more days.

7/10 - Texas has landed in its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.70), and should remain in, or close to, it, while decreasing in mortality, although still at high levels, for 7 more days.

8/10 - South Dakota is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.96), at medium levels, with no expected mortality, for 7 more days.

9/10 - California will be slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.94), very close to reach it, and is decreasing in mortality, although still at high levels, for 7 more days.

10/10 - Washington is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.12), at medium levels, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

11/10 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100

12/10 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0