1/x As is usually the case with most long weekends, but especially so w/The Easter Bunny, IVol got the living daylights beat out of it... it didn’t help that Gary was already well FED coming into EOQ & got a dump trunk full of 🍌’s from the Zookeepers @ JPMorgan in the form of
2/x the 46k SPX JuneQ 4115 Calls mentioned last week... Dealers are stuck & Gary’s as fat as I’ve seen him in over a year. So it is, despite a 72 hr 80 PT SPX rally, no surprise that we are stuck here at 2 stdev up on the 20 day, playing 🐔w/ our long 🎯4024*** w/ a 1 week SPX
3/x straddle trading only $48. 4042.25 *** sits closely overhead as well. & despite every flow reason to hope for more upside & every macro reason to hope for mean reversion, w/👸Vanna & 🦥Charm well rested, this market sits between a 🪨 & an immovable force until 4/12.But don’t
4/x despair, as all breadmen in training know that’s the most profitable time of all... Time to DIGEST le 🥐 & DISPERSION is on le menu’...Dispersion is even more interesting than usual in this🪟due to the macro picture. After a stronger NFP than expected (we’ve expected it...
5/x but u know) the 🐻 steepening continues overnight & as a result the NDX’s momentary strength seems to be wilting again...& with certain areas such as resi Real Estate, highlighted as strong in the report, a week of u deleting rotation seems inevitable.I’d expect rising yields
6/x to increasingly start to impact, not only the Tesla’s & Arkk’s of the world, but the massive number of unprofitable, overlevered Trash Co’s in IWM. 
7/x much like in 2000 I would expect these companies to start to weaken more aggressively before any major decline. With Seasonality and momentum strong, this is no time to get cute & aggressive w Vol yet, but it is time to begin to prepare for a time in the not so distant future
8/x of increased volatility. Especially as we bump against our 2 std dev lid in the market & retail sentiment gets increasingly ebullient, short dated calendar spreads in the SPX have a lot going for them as a way to digest the ST pinning, but still continue to collect Vol
9/x in preparation for an environment of rising Vol , as we head towards the back half of the month & a particularly dangerous May this year w/ well displayed poor leverage and bubbelicious mal investment as far as the 👁 can see...As I’ve been clear about before, be mindful of
10/x the fact that despite the strength of 🦍, 👸, & 🦥 in this 1-2 week 🪟, This only applies locally, & the tail & fragility underneath the surface as displayed by Archegos last week & Melvin only 2 mths ago. Cheap convexity funded locally should ALWAYS be a part of the folio
11/11 going fwd in this fat tail distribution, where liquidity simply doesn’t exist in a world where Gary loses his grip. This is increasingly, especially the case in IWM, TSLA and all of our oft enumerated ARKK doomsday machine names... Good Luck!!!🍀🍀🍀
U deleting=underlying
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