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Tinashe M

@baba_nyenyedzi

29 Mar

1/7
ED Mnangagwa’s vision is to be a middle income country by 2030.

What does that actually mean? How does that vision translate to strategic intent and objectives.

GOZ has an empty promise therefore the empty rhetoric & consequentially violation of economic principles.

2/7
Peter Drucker notes leaders are not in control of the universe. Hesiod the Greek poet in 7BC discovered scarcity.

If a leader can’t control & he has very little, in Economics all his decisions have a trade off. An opportunity lost/cost. By hunting you forgo farming harvest.

3/7
More guns less bread. So the price of a gun is the many loaves of bread that could have fed the nation.

You can’t have it both ways. When you consume you don’t invest. When you invest, you forgo consumption.

Read 7 tweets

Tinashe M

@baba_nyenyedzi

21 Mar

1/6
Who made the RBZ a GOD to decide who gets what, when, & at a fixed price? Is this the system Zimbabweans want? Price controls and rations?

Firms no longer need to be innovative. They just need to borrow ZWL & apply for FX.

Fx is scarce. Is this the best way to spend it?

2/6
Did anyone see the connection between the recipients of Fx & consumer basket? This is how inflation rate is rigged.

Gono tried this system. Inflation went down from 635% to 130%. But the pent up bubble burst & inflation skyrocketed beyond the 635%.

3/6
What if Gono had maintained the market allocating Fx & not played God?

Almost all the beneficiaries of the current Auction system are consumption based. This is the height of misallocation of resources.

Read 7 tweets

Tinashe M

@baba_nyenyedzi

17 Mar

1/10
It is absolutely necessary as citizens we never tire of highlighting the policy flaws. We made the emphatic point many times, that ZWL is being created to buy US at the fixed auction.

Belatedly, RBZ seems to have taken notice of this. The apparent speculation & arbitrage.

2/10
Money supply of ZWL has been increasing at 315% by Nov 2020. Most of this ZWL finds its way to the fixed Auction rate. Giving importers a 40% discount.

ZWL “productive loans” are less than 40% p.a when inflation is at 322%.

This creates the perfect arbitrage.

3/10
The arbitrage is not only with importers. The speculation goes further in the market. Eg a firm/individual can buy steel/gas/ non perishables priced at 83 & simply hold the stock. When shortages arise, or when the inevitable devaluation occurs they’ll offload at a profit.

Read 10 tweets

Tinashe M

@baba_nyenyedzi

16 Mar

There is a fundamental difference between a stimulus package & government guarantee.

Perhaps let’s start with Biden’s $1.9trillion package. Perhaps far from Zim, cooler heads can prevail. Whence it becomes obvious what GOZ has done.

The $1.9tn Biden stimulus works this way;
(1) Treasury spends more than its revenue through issuance of a bond. This over expenditure is why it must go through both houses of the legislature.

This means treasury is running a deficit.

(2)Treasury issues the bonds in the marketplace, but investors are weary of future high inflation & thus hesitant to subscribe. Besides there is not enough money in the world to allocate to new issuances.

So the FED literally prints money to buy the Bonds. Treasury owes the FED

Read 15 tweets

Tinashe M

@baba_nyenyedzi

22 Feb

https://twitter.com/baba_nyenyedzi/status/1341606413223735296

1/

Political Economy of Zimbabwe

The President Mnangagwa, has announced GOZ new policy to repossess unused land, big farms, multiple owned farms & state land. This land will be redistributed to the youth.

The new policy is Political & NOT economics. See the attached thread.

https://twitter.com/baba_nyenyedzi/status/1341606413223735296

2/
With a restive, unemployed, unskilled youth, albeit the largest voting block, Zanu PF has decided to placate the youth with Land.

As a political party, this is well within its rights. But this is dangerous for the Economy & will destroy what little activity is in Agriculture

3/
Agriculture in Zim requires security of tenure. It requires title deeds & private property status.

Private property is not necessarily needed for banking finance. But for innovation to take place. Land is just a factor of production no one has the right to dictate its usage

Read 7 tweets

Tinashe M

@baba_nyenyedzi

15 Feb

1/

Zimbabwe - Afreximbank loans

On the 12th of Feb 2021, compelled by a court order, the MOF gazetted loans taken by RBZ it guaranteed.

It is very clear why RBZ & GOZ were secretive about these loans to the point of making its apologists deny the very existence of them.

2/
For example, over the last 3yrs it has been pointed out that;

(a) RBZ is involved in quasi fiscal activities
(b) GOZ treasury has no surplus

These two points are linked. RBZ comes directly under the Minister’s armpit. RBZ took over treasury responsibilities & its deficits.

3/
RBZ losses, are directly treasury’s losses & by law must be included in the consolidated revenues & expenditures. This never happened, so the right hand claimed it was clean, when all the time the stolen goods were in the left hand.

Read 21 tweets

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