I've started writing a book about the accomplishments of industrial civilization, the major discoveries and inventions behind them, and the meaning of it all.

I'm hosting a 13-month series of discussion salons through the @interintellect_ based on it: interintellect.com/series/jason-c…
The book is very much a work in progress—won't be out for a couple of years. But we'll go through the outline chapter by chapter. Each month I'll present the material I have so far and the open questions I'm still researching, and we'll discuss.

interintellect.com/series/jason-c…
This is your chance to get a sneak preview, to see inside my writing process, and to give feedback that will shape the published book.

Third Sunday of each month, from April 18, 2021 through May 15, 2022. 10am–1pm US Pacific. Here is the schedule:
1. Intro (Apr ‘21) What is “progress”, and why should we care? How the history of progress is relevant to today. How to even approach such an enormous topic and make it digestible. The book’s three big themes about how progress has transformed our lives.

interintellect.com/event/the-stor…
2. Manufacturing (May ‘21) How we make stuff, from stone tools to 3D printing. Improved materials; automated processes. The role of precision. Bonus: does automation reduce costs, or improve quality?
3. Agriculture (Jun ‘21) How we made farm labor 2,000x more productive, so we can feed ourselves with 3% of the workforce instead of more than 50%. The role of soil fertility, crop varieties, mechanization, and refrigeration.

Summer break (July ‘21)
4. Energy (Aug) The fundamental general-purpose technology of production. Why is the steam engine the symbol of the Industrial Revolution? The goals engine designers have pursued for 300 years. Why oil was needed for the evolution of engines. Electricity as the universal energy.
5. Impacts on Work, Home, and Leisure (Sep ‘21) How increasing incomes transformed our lives. More appliances, fewer servants, better hygiene. Rising wages, falling hours, vacations and retirement. Kids in school, women in the office.
6. Transportation (Oct ‘21) How we get around: planes, trains, and automobiles. Why moving stuff is more important than moving people. Why sailors got lost at sea, and why NY to SF took six months. Why the Wright brothers succeeded when their top competitor had 50x the funding.
7. Information (Nov ‘21) From cuneiform to computing. The three primary goals of IT, and how the three eras of IT have successively addressed them. Why digital technology is a katamari ball that sucks up everything in its path.
8. Impacts on Commerce, Politics, and Culture (Dec ‘21) How great retailers like Sears and Amazon were built on top of revolutions in transportation and information technology. How the railroads helped defeat the Corn Laws. How radio and television created mass culture.
9. Medicine (Jan ‘22) Global life expectancy has 2x'ed—how did we do it? The role of sanitation, vaccinations, and antibiotics—and why we still got COVID-19. Vitamin deficiencies and why we don’t get scurvy or rickets. Why there were no elective surgeries before the 20th century.
10. Safety (Feb ‘22) How have we made ourselves safer from fire, flood, and natural disasters? What about the hazards of technology itself? How to think about the tradeoff between safety and progress.
11. Is Progress Good? (Mar ‘22) Does material progress translate to human well-being? Are we stuck on a hedonic treadmill? And even if progress does have benefits, is it worth the costs and risks?
12. Can Progress Continue? (Apr ‘22) We’ve had a good run. Did we just get lucky? Have we eaten all the low-hanging fruit? Are we constrained by resources? Or are there more breakthroughs left to be discovered?
13. What Should We Do? (May ‘22) If progress is possible and desirable, but not inevitable, then how can we maintain it, protect it, even accelerate it? My message to scientists, engineers, and entrepreneurs.
$250 for the whole series or just $25 for a single session.

BUT—sessions 11, 12, and 13, “the philosophy chapters”, will *only* be open to series ticket holders. If you want to discuss the big picture, you have to do your homework and study your history!

interintellect.com/series/jason-c…
Really looking forward to this; thanks to the @interintellect_ and @TheAnnaGat for giving me this opportunity!

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More from @jasoncrawford

14 Feb
Curious about @slatestarcodex, but don't know where to start?

A little while ago a friend asked me to make a list of my favorite posts. So here's a beginner's guide: jasoncrawford.org/guide-to-scott…
What is @slatestarcodex about?

Like many great blogs, not any one thing: it’s the eclectic interests of a unique individual with a broad intellectual appetite.

He says he tends to focus on “reasoning, science, psychiatry, medicine, ethics, genetics, AI, economics and politics.”
What makes it so good? I tried to explain it here:
Read 19 tweets
11 Feb
We're hiring for the engineering team at @OurWorldInData!

A rare chance to build data visualization and pipelines at a well-known and highly influential organization that is focused on how to make progress against the world's biggest problems.

ourworldindata.org/jobs
For those few who haven't heard of @OurWorldInData, it's probably the top site in the world that presents research and data on topics such as global health, poverty, energy usage, agriculture and nutrition, population growth, education, etc.
The data is presented in interactive visualizations and all of it is downloadable in CSV.

As a premiere example, check out our coronavirus data explorer: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…
Read 11 tweets
22 Jan
After reading the post this afternoon, I read most of it out loud to my wife just now.

It was hard, because I was alternately laughing and crying.
Why does this move me so much? It's hard to explain.

As Scott says, it's just a blog, and at the same time, it's so, so much more.
Partly of course, I'm just happy he's back. I've positively missed his writing, which I've never felt about a blog. The insight, the humor, the incisive clarity, the relentless questioning, the exhaustive data analysis.
Read 18 tweets
28 Dec 20
Only three chapters into @CharlesCMann's *The Wizard and the Prophet* and why didn't anyone insist that I read this book before? Super-relevant to progress studies.

Just finished the Borlaug chapter, which is jaw-dropping, even though I already knew the Borlaug story in outline.
The sheer amount of hardship Borlaug endured, the setbacks, the lack of support from almost everyone around him, the tedium of crossing thousands of varieties and planting them by hand… all to save the world's hungry. Someone needs to make a movie out of this.
Seriously, there are so many great scenes. Usually science is hard to make dramatic on the big screen, but this would be fairly easy.

Like this scene where he has no equipment and no one will lend him any, so he literally pulls the plow through the field himself, like a mule:
Read 7 tweets
27 Dec 20
This image gets posted a lot lately, and not everyone knows what it means.

It's a reference to “survivor bias”: a statistical problem in which a sample is non-representative because some elements have been eliminated before the sample was taken. Here's a brief explainer.
The story: You're Britain. It's WW2. Your planes are getting shot down. You want to reinforce them with armor. But you can't armor the whole plane (for weight among other reasons).

What parts of the plane do you prioritize for armor?
Your researchers collect data on where your planes are getting shot. Whenever a plane returns from a mission, they note where they found bullet holes. This diagram shows all the holes that were found across many missions.

Given this data, where do you put the armor?
Read 14 tweets
17 Dec 20
If you want a single, vivid, and frankly disgusting example to hold in mind to remember how much our lives have improved over the last ~150 years…

Consider *shit*.

Literally, excrement. How much previous generations had to think about it, be around it, even handle it:
Before the automobile, horses flooded the streets, and cities were mired in their muck. According to Richard Rhodes, in NYC, horses dropped 4 million pounds of manure and 100 thousand gallons of urine on the streets every *day*. (!)
And Robert Gordon quotes this passage from *The Horse in the City*. “On New York’s Liberty Street there was a manure heap seven feet high.”

Shoveling shit was literally a full-time job. And one of the key uses of horses was to pull the wagons that carried away horse droppings.
Read 21 tweets

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