Updated thoughts on the situation around Ukraine. I was mostly inclined towards Russia making a demonstrative show of force to intimidate. This week the ongoing buildup in progress & certain aspects lead me to worry more about ultimate intent. Brief thread 1/
Russian forces continue to gather in Crimea and elsewhere near Ukraine’s borders, but fairly slowly. My sense looking at this situation is that nothing is necessarily going to happen right now, but if they have offensive operations in mind, they are more likely mid-late April. 2/
This buildup looks quite different from 2014, but that’s irrelevant. The Russian military is in a different place in terms of capability, force posture, readiness, etc. The political context is different as well. So, we should not fight the last war in analysis. 3/
Quite likely there will be escalating fighting in Donbas, artillery duels, skirmishes, etc. However, the force gathering in Crimea is quite concerning. More units appear to be departing for the peninsula each day. So this situation is developing.
Does this mean invasion imminent? No. I'm largely where I was last week in that initial analysis. But confidence levels are important. I'm less confident that this is just a coercive demonstration than I was before.
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